Regional trade agreements and the world trade organization

A Década de 1990 foi Marcada por uma Considerável Proliferação de Acordos Regionais de Comercio (Arcs). Esses Acordos, que em Princípio Teriam Caráter Excepcional no Sistema Multilateral de Comércio, Espalharam-Se por Várias Partes do Mundo E, Atualmente, são Raros os Casos de Países que não Participam de Pelo Menos um Acordo Preferencial. este Artigo tem como Objetivo Analisar os Acordos Preferenciais e suas Implicações no Sistema Multilateral de Comércio E, para Tanto, são Considerados os Aspectos Normativos e Econômicos Relacionados ao Tema. Além Disso, Apresenta-Se a Sistematização das Principais Questões Alusivas À Interpretação das Regras da Omc Relativas Aos Acordos Regionais de Comércio. Finalmente, com o Intuito de Fornecer Elementos Adicionais para a Avaliação do dos Acordos Preferenciais Serão Analisados os Impactos Econômicos de Alguns dos Principais Acordos para o Mercosul.

Citizens and the future of multilateralism in a polycentric world at 2030: the perspectives of emerging countries for the trading system: the impasse of WTO, the trends of mega agreements, the logic of value chains and the advent of consumers concerns on international trade

A new paradigm is modeling the World: evolutionary innovations in all fronts, new information technologies, huge mobility of capital, use of risky financial tools, globalization of production, new emerging powers and the impact of consumer concerns on governmental policies. These phenomena are shaping the World and forcing the advent of a new World Order in the Multilateral Monetary, Financial, and Trading System. The effects of this new paradigm are also transforming global governance. The political and economic orders established after the World War and centered on the multilateral model of UN, IMF, World Bank, and the GATT, leaded by the developed countries, are facing significant challenges. The rise of China and emerging countries shifted the old model to a polycentric World, where the governance of these organizations are threatened by emerging countries demanding a bigger participation in the role and decision boards of these international bodies. As a consequence, multilateralism is being confronted by polycentrism. Negotiations for a more representative voting process and the pressure for new rules to cope with the new demands are paralyzing important decisions. This scenario is affecting seriously not only the Monetary and Financial Systems but also the Multilateral Trading System. International trade is facing some significant challenges: a serious deadlock to conclude the last round of the multilateral negotiation at the WTO, the fragmentation of trade rules by the multiplication of preferential and mega agreements, the arrival of a new model of global production and trade leaded by global value chains that is threatening the old trade order, and the imposition of new sets of regulations by private bodies commanded by transnationals to support global value chains and non-governmental organizations to reflect the concerns of consumers in the North based on their precautionary attitude about sustainability of products made in the World. The lack of any multilateral order in this new regulation is creating a big cacophony of rules and developing a new regulatory war of the Global North against the Global South. The objective of this paper is to explore how these challenges are affecting the Tradinge System and how it can evolve to manage these new trends.

What happens after the central bank of Brazil increases the target interbank rate by 1%?

I start presenting an explicit solution to Taylorís (2001) model, in order to illustrate the link between the target interest rate and the overnight interest rate prevailing in the economy. Next, I use Vector Auto Regressions to shed some light on the evolution of key macroeconomic variables after the Central Bank of Brazil increases the target interest rate by 1%. Point estimates show a four-year accumulated output loss ranging from 0:04% (whole sample, 1980 : 1-2004 : 2; quarterly data) to 0:25% (Post-Real data only) with a Örst-year peak output response between 0:04% and 1:0%; respectively. Prices decline between 2% and 4% in a 4-year horizon. The accumulated output response is found to be between 3:5 and 6 times higher after the Real Plan than when the whole sample is considered. The 95% confidence bands obtained using bias-corrected bootstrap always include the null output response when the whole sample is used, but not when the data is restricted to the Post-Real period. Innovations to interest rates explain between 4:9% (whole sample) and 9:2% (post-Real sample) of the forecast error of GDP.

The Free Trade Area of the Americas : positive outcomes for Brazil and the global community

This document discusses Brazil and the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). Since the FTAA is only a proposed agreement and trade apparatus at the moment, NAFTA is used as a working model and its influence on and benefit for Mexico and that country’s economy.

Pharmaceutical patent bargains: the Brazilian experience

In the backdrop of the strict patent regime flatly adopted by the World Trade Organization (WTO) for all countries, a few countries constantly challenge this system through aggressive patent bargains. Within the pharmaceutical sector, noticeably, some countries now threaten to issue or otherwise actually issue compulsory licenses that may sway large pharmaceutical companies into selling drugs with large discounts or into granting voluntary licenses domestically. That is conspicuously the negotiation strategy adopted by Brazil in its negotiations with big international pharmaceutical companies.This paper explains Brazil’s aggressive bargaining approach based on an analysis of two aspects of its political economy. The first has to do with the international context of patent bargaining in the post-WTO era. Accordingly, the existence of large and fast growing domestic markets position countries such as Brazil as strategic destinations for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and trade. Together with an absence of a propensity to innovate in pharmaceutical products, these conditions boost Brazil’s bargaining power for issuing compulsory licenses over pharmaceutical products. The second aspect is related to political economy dynamics inside Brazil. Accordingly, the political framework in Brazil undermines long-term policies and favors short-sighted ones also vis-a-vis R&D investments in the pharmaceutical industry. This remains true regardless of the strictness of the patent regime in place. The lesson of Brazil is relevant arguably for other more powerful developing countries which presently examine Brazil's approach while further challenging the WTO's strict patent policy for the future.

Empirical essays on IPOS: the Brazilian case

The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the main factors that determine the first-day return and the Flipping activity in Brazilian IPOs, taking into account expected results according to national and international researches. The data base encompasses IPOs that took place between May 2004 and February 2011, summing up to 129 IPOs and approximately R$ 128 billion offering. The first-day return, which means the “money left on the table”, was on average 4.6% taking into consideration the issue price, while the Flipping activity totalized R$ 7.2 billion, meaning 5.6% of the offering. The first-day return was analyzed before and after the first trade, and evidences were found supporting (a) the exogenous determination of the issue price, (b) the opening price dependence of prospectus disclosure and of other variables, observable previously to the bookbuilding process, and (c) the cascade behavior of investors in the pricing after the first trade, particularly driven by the underwriter behavior. In regards to the Flipping, it was notorious depending on how much the IPO succeeded, being concentrated in and homogeneous along the first-day, despite the intense negotiation in the first minute. As a general contribution to literature, it was concluded that Information Asymmetry Theory arguments are not sufficient to explain the first-day Underpricing and the Flipping, being necessary arguments based on Behavioral Finance adapted to an intraday perspective.

Mobilidades Urbanas - Welcoming the World: Spectacle, dissent and community cohesion ahead of London 2012

Em uma conjuntura de expansão urbana, intensificação do consumo, mudança climática e escassez de petróleo, o tema das mobilidades assume inquestionável importância econômica, social e ambiental. O seminário internacional "Mobilidades Urbanas: Alicerces para Pesquisas Transnacionais" volta-se, por um lado, para a fomentação do debate em torno do paradigma das novas mobilidades - envolvendo mobilidade espacial e socioeconômica, entre outras - e de sua aplicabilidade no contexto brasileiro; por outro, para a capacitação de pesquisadores cujas investigações tematizam os processos de mobilidade social e espacial a partir de perspectivas comparativas e transnacionais.

A deeper look at ethics within banking corporations: the approach of one of the biggest bank in the world

Existe uma preocupação crescente da sociedade com a ética, devida em parte aos numerosos escândalos que surgiram no mundo corporativo ultimamente, em particular no setor financeiro em que as repercussões de malversações têm geralmente um impacto maior para a sociedade do que podem ter quando acontecem em outro setor de atividade. Outra consequência é o interesse cada vez maior dos acadêmicos em estudar ética dos negócios. Porém, a pesar do uso frequente do termo ética e dos conceitos relacionados, não existe ainda um consenso sobre uma definição comum de ética dos negócios. Pertence a cada corporação definir o que considera ser ética dos negócios. Portanto, para entender melhor o que tem por trás do termo ética, é preciso voltar a sua definição, explicar a sua evolução, colocá-lo dentro do nosso contexto contemporâneo, para depois aplicá-lo à área de interesse. Para o setor bancário, ética se refere mais ao aspecto legal, mas também faz referência ao desenvolvimento da responsabilidade social corporativa dentro das corporações através de diferentes práticas. A literatura a respeito ressalta que a abordagem da ética pelas corporações bancárias tradicionais desconecta a ética do foco de negócio, considerando que não pertence ao centro da sua atividade. De fato, as corporações respondem aos mesmos mecanismos isomorfos institucionais, os quais as levam a adotar práticas com o objetivo de conseguir legitimidade dentro da sociedade. Ao contrário dessas corporações bancárias tradicionais, os bancos qualificados como éticos pela literatura, tem em comum o fato de estruturar as suas atividades sobre ou em volta da ética, diferenciando-se dos outros bancos por ter como principal objetivo ser ético. O banco Brasileiro Itaú Unibanco, um dos maiores bancos tradicionais do mundo em termos de valor de mercado, foi percebido aos poucos como um banco muito preocupado com a ética, e foi recentemente reconhecido como o banco mais sustentável do mundo pela revista Financial Times. O Itaú 5 Unibanco desenhou e implementou um programa de ética, o qual junta um componente teórico (com diretrizes, regras e princípios e um código de ética), usado como um suporte para o componente prático (estrutura organizacional particular e práticas cotidianas). Esse programa levou o Banco Itaú a ser campeão inovador na institucionalização da ética dentro do setor bancário.

Obstacles for chinese and brazilian companies in the bilateral trade between China and Brazil

Brasil e a República Popular da China iniciaram a sua relação diplomática em 1974, na época, o comércio entre Brasil e China foi de apenas 17,42 milhões de dólares, 5 anos depois, em 1979, a escala deste comércio bilateral aumentou 12 pastas. Hoje em dia, o comércio bilateral entre a China e o Brasil já contava mais de 57,000 milhões de dólares USD. China tornou-se já o primeiro parceiro comercial do Brasil, e do Brasil em troca torna-se o primeiro parceiro comercial na América Latina. Esta dissertação teve como objetivo compreender os obstáculos para as PME brasileiras e chinesas no comércio entre os dois países e dar recomendações às autoridades públicas e empresas privadas sobre como superá-los. Com uma análise qualitativa, baseada em entrevistas com as empresas chinesas e brasileiras para identificar quais são os obstáculos mais graves para as empresas brasileiras e chinesas para beneficiar mais o comércio bilateral. O estudo feito pela OCDE-APEC em barreiras de internacionalização das PME é usado como um quadro para melhor identificar quais são os obstáculos mais graves no caso das PME brasileiras e chinesas.

What happens after the Central Bank of Brazil increases the target interbank rate by 1%?

In this paper I use Taylor's (2001) model and Vector Auto Regressions to shed some light on the evolution of some key macroeconomic variables after the Central Bank of Brazil, through the COPOM, increases the target interest rate by 1%. From a quantitative perspective, the best estimate from the empírical analysis, obtained with a 1994 : 2 - 2004 : 2 subsample of the data, is that GDP goes through an accumulated decline, over the next four years, around 0.08%. Innovations to interest rates explain around 9.2% of the forecast erro r of GDP.

WTO-plus commitments on the elimination of export duties: evidence of a two-tier membership?

This descriptive paper examines the prevalence of ‘WTO-plus’ commitments in accession protocols of newly acceded Members, with a focus on commitments on the elimination of export duties. It presents preliminary results of a mapping exercise carried out with respect to these commitments and seeks to answer two questions. First, can any general conclusions be drawn as to the prevalence of these commitments or are they, per definition, country-specific. Second, has the political nature of the WTO accession process allowed for the creation of a two-tier membership. The first question is answered by relying on data gathered as part of the ongoing PhD-research project conducted by the author. The project aims to construct a typology of WTO-plus commitments to allow for a more detailed analysis of the relationship between these commitments and the baseline obligations in the covered agreements. The accession of China to the WTO is commonly considered as the prime example of the inclusion of WTO-plus obligations in accession protocols. The paper tries to answer the question whether this particular accession was truly unique in nature, or whether the inclusion of “Plus” obligations is less exceptional than often assumed. Additionally, the accession protocols of other recently acceded-Members are examined to establish whether the hypothesis holds. In the PhD-research project this comparative methodology will also be applied to map WTO-plus commitments in other areas, such as anti-dumping and transparency. The second question will be answered in two stages. In a preliminary stage, international institutional law will be used to by analyzing the way in which the WTO’s Dispute Settlement Body has dealt with this type of WTO-plus commitment in its jurisprudence. The second stage deals with the question of hierarchy: Accession Protocols are negotiated with the WTO Membership, by each country willing to accede to the WTO. This poses questions as to their exact position in the system of WTO law. To establish whether evidence of a two-tier membership is present, one first has to turn back to the question whether Accession Protocols are a separate (or independent) legal instrument or an “integral part” of the WTO system of covered agreements. If newly acceded Members do not benefit from the general exceptions in order to balance their more stringent, WTO-plus, obligations, this may support the conclusion that the membership of the World Trade Organization is becoming, in fact, two-tiered.

Watching the World Cup, one data point at a time

Retirado do blog de Marc Pickren do dia 13 jun. 2014.

Watching the World Cup, one data point at a time

Sound the vuvuzelas, the World Cup is officially here. The biggest sporting event in the world is set to break all kinds of viewing records. Sporting in the digital world is just as much about stats as it is about the game itself. Enter Brandwatch. The social media analytics company has taken it upon itself to track social media statistics for the entire run of the World Cup with their new real-time data visualization tool.

After the demise of neoliberalism but not of conservatism, a third developmentalism?

Neoliberalism and developmentalism are the two alternative forms of economic and political organization of capitalism. Since the 2008 global financial crisis we see the demise of neoliberalism in rich countries, as state intervention and regulation increased, opening room for a third historical developmentalism (the first was mercantilism, the second, Fordism). Not only because of major market failures, not only because the market is definitely unable to assure financial stability and full employment, an active macroeconomic policy is being required. Modern economies are divided into a competitive and a non-competitive sector; for the coordination of the competitive sector the market is irreplaceable and regulation as well as strategic industrial policy will be pragmatically adopted following the subsidiarity principle, whereas for the non-competitive sector, state coordination and some state ownership are usually more efficient. Besides, the fact that capitalist economies are increasingly diversified and complex is an argument against the two extremes – against statism as well as neoliberalism – in so far that they require market coordination combined with increased regulation. But the third developmentalism probably will not be progressive as was the second, because the social-democratic political parties are disoriented. They won the battle for the welfare state, which neoliberalism was unable to dismantle, but the competition of low wage developing countries and immigration continue to offer arguments to conservative political parties that defend the reduction of the cost of labor contracts or the or precarization of labor.

Credit ratings and government bonds evidence before, during and after the european debt crisis

Neste projeto, investigamos se as agências de rating e as taxas de juro de longo prazo da dívida soberana tiveram uma influência recíproca antes, durante e após a crise da dívida soberana Europeia. Esta análise é realizada, estimando a relação existente entre os ratings da dívida soberana ou taxas de juro e factores macroeconomicos e estruturais, através de uma diferente aplicação de metodologias utilizadas para este efeito. Os resultados obtidos demonstram que, no período da crise soberana, os ratings e as taxas de juros tiveram um mútuo impacto, sugerindo que as descidas dos ratings podem ter conduzido a profecias auto-realizáveis, levando países relativamente estáveis a um eventual incumprimento