Do shocks permanently change output? : Local persistency in economic time series

While it is recognized that output fuctuations are highly persistent over certain range, less persistent results are also found around very long horizons (Conchrane, 1988), indicating the existence of local or temporary persistency. In this paper, we study time series with local persistency. A test for stationarity against locally persistent alternative is proposed. Asymptotic distributions of the test statistic are provided under both the null and the alternative hypothesis of local persistency. Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to study the power and size of the test. An empirical application reveals that many US real economic variables may exhibit local persistency.

Discursos e a construção do "real": um estudo do processo de formação e institucionalização do campo da biotecnologia

Comprehension of the processes of formation of new organizational fields is the main objective that stimulated the theoretical reflection and empirical research that I present in this paper. My intention here is to uphold the potential for the application of seemingly dichotomous perspectives in terms of the objectivity/subjectivity dimension in the comprehension of the objective in question. The contribution of Foucault, with his concept of discourse, is linked to the proposal of critical constructivism represented by Latour and studies of science and technology. Juxtaposing these perspectives, I examined the dynamics of the biotechnological field on the basis of the dialectic of movements of demarcation/circularity, which is basically a simultaneous movement of (dis)construction of the boundaries of a field. The dialectic of demarcation/circularity is made up of the set of relations established between heterogeneous elements ¿ institutions, economic and social processes, behavioral patterns, systems of norms, techniques, types of classification, forms of characterization, in other words it finds ways of emerging in the course of discursive formations. This theoretical proposal ¿ which incorporates an overlooked dimension in institutional analysis, especially in organization studies (power) ¿ has the advantage of contributing to enhancing comprehension of the dynamics of institutionalization. By proposing that the institutional processes arise within discursive fields, the argument put forward is that such processes contribute to the productivity of the power relations in these fields. In empirical terms, I conducted a descriptive and exploratory research directed at the biotechnology sector. The research was based on a historical perspective, since the analysis spans the period from the origins of genetic science (beginning of the 20th century) through to recent developments in biotechnology in the USA (beginning of the 21st century). The USA was chosen as the locus of research, principally due to the fact that structuring of the field of biotechnology originated in that country, subsequently spreading to other countries around the world. Starting from this theoretical and methodological framework, three discursive formations are highlighted: organization, information and network. Each of the discursive formations is characterized by a dominant set of discourses that prepare the ground for the appearance and (trans)formation of the focus-objects under analysis. In this process, organizations appear in at least two ways: as boundary-organizations ¿ which are important for understanding the movement of the approximation of different discursive domains ¿ and as new organizations, which accompany the (trans)formation of new fields, whereby prevailing discourses materialize at a given historical moment and contribute to breathe life into new discourses, which in turn spark off new power relations. Among the conclusions of this work, I would highlight the following: questioning the 'organizational' dimension of the fields; the relationship revealed not only between the discourses and the institutionalized practices, but also with the process of construction of legitimacy; and the redefinition of the concept of organizations, based on new conceptions relating to the limits of the topic, the objectivity/subjectivity, and space/time dichotomy.

Work, study, both or neither? time allocation of Brazilian teenagers

Labor force participation among youth is extremely high in Brazil when compared to countries with a similar economic background. In Argentina and Chile labor force participation, among those with 10 to 14 years old, is around 1% while in Brazil this rate is as high as 17 %. For the those between 15 and 19 years old these figures are around 10% in Chile, 15% in Argentina and 53% in Brazil. On the other hand the data on school attendance give a more optimistic picture. The percentage of children, between 10 and 14 years old, enrolled in school increased steadily from 79% to 95% from 1981 to 1998 and with age between 15 and 19, from 46% to 66% in the same period. These figures are close to the ones presented by Chile and Argentina. around 99% among the youngest group and around 70% for the 15 to 19 years old group. The objective of the paper is to understand the determinants of the time allocation decision of the Brazilian youth during the last twenty years. Using a multinomial logit regression we investigate the conditional effect of various micro and macro variables on the time allocation decision for the 1991 to 1998 period. Our main findings are: working and studying became the most likely allocation among the youngest in the poor rural areas and, in general, to study, whether working or not, became less dependent on family background for the youngest group but not for the older.

TIC em hospitais privados: estudo do uso, do custo e da integração

A tese estuda e analisa as Tecnologias da Informação e Comunicação (TIC) disponíveis em hospitais no Brasil, associados à ANAHP – Associação Nacional de Hospitais Privados que patrocinou a coleta de dados e apoiou a pesquisa com dois temas centrais: uso e custo; integração e interoperabilidade das TIC. A Organização para a Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico (OECD), em estudo sobre TIC em saúde, afirmou que, se implantadas de maneira eficiente, as TIC podem resultar em melhoria da qualidade na prestação de serviços de saúde, aumento da segurança no atendimento ao paciente e custos menores. Para permitir a comparação de resultados e o uso de modelos de pesquisa confiáveis, este estudo adaptou o Modelo de Pesquisa de Uso de TI utilizado pelo GVcia - Centro de Tecnologia da Informação Aplicada da FGV – EAESP e realizou uma complementação dos instrumentos de pesquisa para levantar dados específicos da integração das TIC em hospitais utilizando com referência uma pesquisa aplicada a hospitais norte-americanos. A coleta de dados foi realizada para o período 2009 a 2015 em duas etapas. Na primeira, foi enviado o questionário eletrônico, validado por executivos de hospitais e apresentado no apêndice A. Na segunda etapa, os dados enviados foram validados e aspectos da integração foram esclarecidos por meio de entrevistas. O estudo de custo e uso das TIC resultou no cálculo de diversos indicadores. Gastos e investimentos com TIC em hospitais privados atingiu a 3,5% do faturamento anual dos hospitais da amostra enquanto que o setor da saúde, por sua vez, gastou e investiu 6,4% do faturamento anual com as TIC que implementou. Outro indicador inédito e importante para futuros estudos no setor é o custo anual das TIC por leito hospitalar que permaneceu estável em torno de US$ 39.000 entre 2010 e 2014 e caiu para US$ 36.000 em 2015, valor equivalente a R$ 120.000 de dezembro de 2015. Outras estatísticas e indicadores apresentados no estudo ajudam a entender a evolução e o desempenho das TIC na prestação de serviços de saúde e poderão ser úteis para decidir se as TIC ajudarão a melhorar a segurança e atenção ao paciente, aos profissionais de saúde no acesso a dados do paciente, e a necessária sintonia com o Modelo da Saúde Digital (e-Saúde), a custos adequados. Os resultados do presente estudo são comparáveis aos americanos semelhantes e permitem inferir que o parque tecnológico em uso nos hospitais privados brasileiros poderá alavancar a integração de sistemas existentes, permitindo a sintonia com Modelos de Saúde Digital, com a melhoria de desempenho da cadeia estendida da saúde na atenção ao cidadão que poderá ser assistido onde estiver, a qualquer momento, com segurança. Ação gerencial e investimentos são os tópicos centrais que envolvem a integração.