Essays on the credit channel of monetary policy: a case study for Brazil

The onset of the financial crisis in 2008 and the European sovereign crisis in 2010 renewed the interest of macroeconomists on the role played by credit in business cycle fluctuations. The purpose of the present work is to present empirical evidence on the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Brazil with a special eye on the role played by the credit channel, using different econometric techniques. It is comprised by three articles. The first one presents a review of the literature of financial frictions, with a focus on the overlaps between credit activity and the monetary policy. It highlights how the sharp disruptions in the financial markets spurred central banks in developed and emerging nations to deploy of a broad set of non conventional tools to overcome the damage on financial intermediation. A chapter is dedicated to the challenge face by the policymaking in emerging markets and Brazil in particular in the highly integrated global capital market. This second article investigates the implications of the credit channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the case of Brazil, using a structural FAVAR (SFAVAR) approach. The term “structural” comes from the estimation strategy, which generates factors that have a clear economic interpretation. The results show that unexpected shocks in the proxies for the external finance premium and the credit volume produce large and persistent fluctuations in inflation and economic activity – accounting for more than 30% of the error forecast variance of the latter in a three-year horizon. Counterfactual simulations demonstrate that the credit channel amplified the economic contraction in Brazil during the acute phase of the global financial crisis in the last quarter of 2008, thus gave an important impulse to the recovery period that followed. In the third articles, I make use of Bayesian estimation of a classical neo-Keynesian DSGE model, incorporating the financial accelerator channel developed by Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999). The results present evidences in line to those already seen in the previous article: disturbances on the external finance premium – represented here by credit spreads – trigger significant responses on the aggregate demand and inflation and monetary policy shocks are amplified by the financial accelerator mechanism. Keywords: Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy, Credit Channel, Financial Accelerator, FAVAR, DSGE, Bayesian Econometrics

A sociometric analysis for the creation of an integrated multicultural work team

This research aimed to apply the sociometric theory and its methodology to create an integrated multicultural work team. The study focused on the application of the sociometry theory, developed by Jacob L. Moreno in 1934, to analyze the small multicultural group. In the beginning, a review of the literature was done to have a better understanding of Sociometric Theory as well as the modern tools and software developed to analyze and map the social networks. After this part of the study, the qualitative study was done, in which 26 students from 12 countries, which studied together in a Corporate International Master (2014-2015), developed by Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business, Corporate Master of Business Administration from ESADE Business School and FGV/EBAPE, were surveyed and asked them to choose people, among the selected group, who they attracted, rejected or they were neutral towards, in 4 different scenarios: work team, leadership, trip (leisure time) and personal problem. Additionally, there were, two questions asked about how they felt when they answered the survey and which question(s) was/were difficult to answer and why. The focus on these two questions was to understand the emotional state of the respondents when they answered the survey and related this emotional state to the Sociometric Theory. The sociometric matrix, using Microsoft Excel, was created using the answers and the total of the positive, negative and neutral choices were analyzed for each scenario as well as the mutualities and incongruences of the choices. Furthermore, the software Kumu was used to analyze the connections between the people in the selected group using three metrics: size, degree centrality and indegree. Also Kumu was used to draw the social maps or sociometric maps. Using the relationship level analyses of the sociometric matrix and maps, it was possible to create an integrated multicultural work team. In the end, the results obtained suggest that it is possible to apply the sociometric methodology to study the relationships inside companies, project teams and work teams and identify the best work team based on the interrelationship between the people as well as the lack of communication among the team members, project team or inside the company as a whole.