The effects of longevity and distortions on education and retirement

This article studies the impact of longevity and taxation on life-cycle decisions and long-run income. Individuals allocate optimally their total lifetime between education, working and retirement. They also decide at each moment how much to save or consume out of their income, and after entering the labor market how to divide their time between labor and leisure. The model incorporates experience-earnings profiles and the return-to-education function that follows evidence from the labor literature. In this setup, increases in longevity raises the investment in education - time in school - and retirement. The model is calibrated to the U.S. and is able to reproduce observed schooling levels and the increase in retirement, as the evidence shows. Simulations show that a country equal to the U.S. but with 20% smaller longevity will be 25% poorer. In this economy, labor taxes have a strong impact on the per capita income, as it decreases labor effort, time at school and retirement age, in addition to the general equilibrium impact on physical capital. We conclude that life-cycle effects are relevant in analyzing the aggregate outcome of taxation.

The effects of external and internal strikes on total factor productivity

This paper examines structural changes that occur in the total factor productivity (TFP) within countries. It is possible that some episodes of high economic growth or economic decline are associated with permanent productivity shocks, therefore, this research has two objectives. The Örst one is to estimate the structural changes present in TFP for a sample of 81 countries between 1950(60) and 2000. The second one is to identify, whenever possible, episodes in the political and economic history of these countries that may account for the structural breaks in question. The results suggest that about 85% of the TFP time-series present at least one structural break, moreover, at least half the structural changes can be attributed to internal factors, such as independence or a newly adopted constitution, and about 30% to external shocks, such as oil shock or shocks in international interest rates. The majority of the estimated breaks are downwards, indicating that after a break the TFP tends to decrease, implying that institutional rearrangements, external shocks, or internal shocks may be costly and from which it is very di¢ cult to recover.

How does corruption hurt growth? Evidences about the effects of corruption on factors productivity and per capita income

Corruption is a phenomenon that plagues many countries and, mostly, walks hand in hand with inefficient institutional structures, which reduce the effectiveness of public and private investment. In countries with widespread corruption, for each monetary unit invested, a sizable share is wasted, implying less investment. Corruption can also be a burden on a nation’s wealth and economic growth, by driving away new investment and creating uncertainties regarding private and social rights. Thus, corruption can affect not only factors productivity, but also their accumulation, with detrimental consequences on a society’s social development. This article aims to analyze and measure the influence of corruption on a country’s wealth. It is implicitly admitted that the degree of institutional development has an adverse effect on the productivity of production factors, which implies in reduced per capita income. It is assumed that the level of wealth and economic growth depends on domestic savings, foster technological progress and a proper educational system. Corruption, within this framework, is not unlike an additional cost, which stifles the “effectiveness” of the investment. This article first discusses the key theories evaluating corruption’s economic consequences. Later, it analyzes the relation between institutional development, factor productivity and per capita income, based on the neoclassical approach to economic growth. Finally, it brings some empirical evidence regarding the effects of corruption on factor productivity, in a sample of 81 countries studied in 1998. The chief conclusion is that corruption negatively affects the wealth of a nation by reducing capital productivity, or its effectiveness.

The value of local partners in Brazil: the effects of ownership clusters and business group membership on firm value in emerging markets

Este estudo analisa como a classe de acionistas afeta o valor das empresas brasileiras listadas na bolsa de valores no ponto de vista da governança corporativa. O trabalho examina a interação entre o valor das empresas e cinco tipos de concentrações acionárias comumente presente em mercados emergentes: famílias, agentes públicos, investidores estrangeiros, executivos e investidores financeiros nacionais. A análise empírica demonstra que o mix e a concentração de participação acionária afeta significativamente o valor das empresas. Utilizando uma compilação única de dados em painel de 2004 a 2008, a presente pesquisa também desenvolve hipóteses sobre o efeito da participação em grupos econômicos para o valor das empresas. A investigação encontra evidências de que, apesar de sua importância para o desenvolvimento de empresas brasileiras, o capital familiar, instituições públicas, e investidores estrangeiros estão cedendo lugar a monitores mais especializados e menos concentrados, como executivos e instituições financeiras nacionais. Estes resultados indicam que a governança corporativa no Brasil pode estar alcançando níveis de maturidade mais elevados. Adicionalmente, apesar de não haver indicação da existência de correlação entre a participação em grupos econômicos e o valor das empresas, os resultados indicam que a presença de um tipo específico de acionista em uma empresa do grupo facilita investimentos futuros desta classe de acionista em outras empresas do mesmo grupo, sinalizando que os interesses acionários são provavelmente perpetuados dentro de uma mesma rede de empresas. Finalmente, a pesquisa demonstra que enquanto o capital familiar prefere investir em empresas com ativa mobilidade do capital, investidores internacionais e instituições públicas procuram investimentos em equity com menor mobilidade de capital, o que lhes garante mais transparência com relação ao uso dos recursos e fundos das empresas.

Microeconomic instability and children's human capital accumulation: the effects of idiosyncratic shocks to father's income on child labor, school drop-outs and repetition rates in Brazil

This paper evaluates the long-run effects of economic instability. In particular, we study the impact of idiosyncratic shocks to father’s income on children’s human capital accumulation variables such as school drop-outs, repetition rates and domestic and non-domestic labor. Although, the problem of child labor in Brazil has declined greatly during the last decade, the number of children working is still substantial. The low levels of educational attainment in Brazil are also a main cause for concern. The large rotating panel data set used allows for the estimation of the impacts of changes in occupational and income status of fathers on changes in his child’s time allocation circumstances. The empirical analysis is restricted to families with fathers, mothers and at least one child between 10 and 15 years of age in the main Brazilian metropolitan areas during the 1982-1999 period. We perform logistic regressions controlling for child characteristics (gender, age, if he/she is behind in school for age), parents characteristics (grade attainment and income) and time and location variables. The main variables analyzed are dynamic proxies of impulses and responses, namely: shocks to household head’s income and unemployment status, on the one hand and child’s probability of dropping out of school, of repeating a grade and of start working, on the other. The findings suggest that father’s income has a significant positive correlation with child’s dropping out of school and of repeating a grade. The findings do not suggest a significant relationship between a father’s becoming unemployed and a child entering the non-domestic labor market. However, the results demonstrate a significant positive relationship between a father becoming unemployed and a child beginning to work in domestic labor. There was also a positive correlation between father becoming unemployed and a child dropping out and repeating a grade. Both gender and age were highly significant with boys and older children being more likely to work, drop-out and repeat grades.

The effects of tax incentives for small firms on employment levels

This paper will examine the effects of tax incentives for small businesses on employment level evaluating a program with this purpose implemented in Brazil in the 1990s. We first develop a theoretical framework which guides both the de nition of the parameters of interest and their identi cation. Selection problems both into the treatment group and into the data sample are tackled by combining fixed effects methods and regression discontinuity design on alternative sub-samples of a longitudinal database of manufacturing firms. The results show that on the one hand the size composition of the treated fi rms may be changed due to the survival of some smaller firms that would have exited had it not been eligible to the program. On the other hand, the treated firms who do not depend on the program to survive do employ more workers.

An essay about the effect of vague accounting standards on the decision making process of auditors

Vague words and expressions are present throughout the standards that comprise the accounting and auditing professions. Vagueness is considered to be a significant source of inexactness in many accounting decision problems and many authors have argued that the neglect of this issue may cause accounting information to be less useful. On the other hand, we can assume that the use of vague terms in accounting standards is inherent to principle based standards (different from rule based standards) and that to avoid vague terms, standard setters would have to incur excessive transaction costs. Auditors are required to exercise their own professional judgment throughout the audit process and it has been argued that the inherent vagueness in accounting standards may influence their decision making processes. The main objective of this paper is to analyze the decision making process of auditors and to investigate whether vague accounting standards create a problem for the decision making process of auditors, or lead to a better outcome. This paper makes the argument that vague standards prompt the use of System 2 type processing by auditors, allowing more comprehensive analytical thinking; therefore, reducing the biases associated with System 1 heuristic processing. If our argument is valid, the repercussions of vague accounting standards are not as negative as presented in previous literature, instead they are positive.

The effects of trust in Brazilian PNPs: interpersonal and interorganizational trust in the cultural sector social organizations in São Paulo, Brazil

This study seeks to evaluate how enterorganizational and interpersonal trust affects the degree of State interference in the operations of public-nonprofit partnerships (PNPs). We conducted a qualitative case study in two Brazilian PNPs, Projeto Guri and Orquestra Sinfônica do Estado de São Paulo, through documental analysis and semi-structured interviews. Content analysis of the data yielded a trust framework that begins to explain how a variety of factors, including the protective qualities of the management contract and the strength of the board, moderate the relationship between interpersonal and interorganizational trust in PNPs. The study reveals that unlike Zaheer et al (1998), interpersonal trust had a unique and prominent effect on State interference and types of collaboration in PNPs. Parting from the suggestions by previous authors to contextualize PNP literature findings, the framework takes into account the highly personalistic qualities of Brazilian culture as well as historical and institutional context while highlighting the crucial role of interpersonal trust in Brazilian PNPs.

The effects of adult literacy on earnings and employment

This paper provides evidence of the effects of adult literacy on individuals’ income and employability in Brazil based on information obtained from the monthly employment survey (PME). The OLS results indicate that after controlling for observable characteristics, there is a 21.25% increase in wages for individuals who become literate; however, there is no significant impact on employability. Moreover, the findings show an 8.1% increase in the probability of being employed in the formal sector. We also explore the longitudinal structure of the dataset to control for unobservable fixed characteristics of individuals. The fixed-effects estimators show smaller effects compared to the OLS estimators. We find that literacy has a 4.4% effect on wages and a 4.3% impact on the probability of being formally employed. The effects are significantly different from zero.

The effects of commodity dependence on the brazilian economy: a test of the dutch disease hypothesis

A doença holandesa tornou-se amplamente conhecida na década de 1960, quando a descoberta repentina de reservatórios de gás natural em território holandês, na região do mar do norte, transformou o país em uma economia rica em recursos. A desagradável consequência que proveio da recém-adquirida abundância de commodities foi o declínio da próspera indústria holandesa, que perdeu sua competitividade devido à valorização do florim holandês, como consequência do aumento do influxo de capital estrangeiro no país. Desde então este fenômeno tem sido observado em diversos países que possuem abundância de commodities. O objetivo desta tese é aplicar o modelo da doença holandesa ao Brasil, já que a maior economia da América latina poderá também ter de encarar a ameaça de se tornar prisioneira da “armadilha das commodities”, devido à sua abundância de recursos naturais. O autor revisa a bibliografia básica abordando o tema geral da doença holandesa e dá enfoque a estudos realizados anteriormente no Brasil. Além disso, os quatro maiores sintomas que caracterizam a doença holandesa são testados: (1) valorização das taxas de câmbio do real, (2) declínio do setor industrial, (3) crescimento do setor de serviços, e (4) aumento dos salários. Todos estes sintomas foram observados e podem ser comprovados através das abordagens de cointegração ou de correlação, com exceção do sintoma número dois. Ainda que estes resultados sejam significativos, há muito outros fatores determinantes que influenciam o desenvolvimento dos sintomas examinados, motivo pelo qual futuros estudos serão necessários para se obtiver conclusões definitivas sobre como o Brasil é afetado pela doença holandesa.

The effects of small firm tax incentives on employment levels

This paper aims to evaluate the impact on employment growth of a tax incentive program targeting Brazilian manufacturing small businesses (SIMPLES). This evaluation is conducted for two distinct periods: for the year 1997, when the program was first implemented, and for the year 1999, when the eligibility rule was modified to allow the eligibility of a broader group of firms. The evaluation takes into account two distinct channels through which the charted effects operate. The first is the employment variation in the firms that became eligible for the incentives, and the second is the change in the survival probability experienced by the same group of firms. Moreover, each of these channels can be activated either by the tax reduction dimension of the program or by its dimension of red tape simplification. Our results identify positive effects on employment growth for the tax incentive program only in the dimension of red tape simplification and its effects on the 1997 sample.

The effects of state ownership in the internationalization of emerging multinationals

Esta tese é um compendio de três trabalhos de pesquisa que visam analisar o efeito da participação do estado na estrutura de propriedade das Multinacionais de Países Emergentes (EMNEs). A participação do estado como acionista é um fenómeno que pode trazer novas contribuições no âmbito da governança corporativa, administração da empresa e a tomada de decisões estratégicas. Os estudos aqui inclusos permitem identificar, a partir de momentos, diferentes, até que ponto o estado, na posição de proprietário da EMNE, pode impactar a mesma. Os trabalhos vão desde os mecanismos de escolha de firmas nas quais investir ate o impacto no ritmo de internacionalização das empresas, explicando também os mecanismos que o estado usa para ganhar aceso à tomada de decisões por meio de mudanças na governança corporativa

The effects of openness on industrial employment in Brazil

Este artigo tem dois objetivos principais. Primeiramente, apresentamos as pnnClpms evidências de que a baixa qualidade do emprego é o maior problema do mercado de trabalho brasileiro. Mostra-se que o país tem absorvido um crescimento da oferta de trabalho significativo ao longo dos últimos anos sem registrar um aumento da taxa de desemprego. No entanto, os postos de trabalho no Brasil são, em média, extremamente precários. Em grande medida, a precariedade do emprego no Brasil está relacionada à alta rotatividade da mão-de-obra, que desincentiva o investimento em treinamento, impedindo o crescimento da produtivid::;de do trabalho. De acordo com os indicadores passíveis de comparação internacional, o Brasil apresenta uma das maiores taxas de rotatividade do mundo. Em segundo lugar, estuda-se a evolução recente do emprego industrial, uma vez que o setor industrial está tradicionalmente associado à geração de bons empregos no Brasil. Mostra-se que o nível de emprego industrial tem se reduzido de forma praticamente contínua desde o início desta década. A estimação de um modelo de ajustamento parcial do emprego nos permite explicar este fenômeno. Mudanças estruturais significativas na elasticidade custo salarial do emprego e no coeficiente de tendência são detectadas a partir do início da década de 90. Um simples modelo teórico é usado de forma a interpretar estas mudanças estruturais como a resposta ótima das empresas industriais ao ambiente de maior competição externa, devido à abertura comercial. Isto, junto com o uso crescente de tecnologias poupadoras de mão-de-obra, são suficientes para explicar a brutal queda do emprego industrial no Brasil ao longo dos últimos seis anos.

The effects of the minimum wage on earnings and employment in Brazil

This paper analyzes the effects of the mlmmum wage on both, eammgs and employment, using a Brazilian rotating panel data (Pesquisa Mensal do Emprego - PME) which has a similar design to the US Current Population Survey (CPS). First an intuitive description of the data is done by graphical analysis. In particular, Kemel densities are used to show that an increase in the minimum wage compresses the eamings distribution. This graphical analysis is then forrnalized by descriptive models. This is followed by a discussion on identification and endogeneity that leads to the respecification of the model. Second, models for employment are estimated, using an interesting decomposition that makes it possible to separate out the effects of an increase in the minimum wage on number of hours and on posts of jobs. The main result is that an increase in the minimum wage was found to compress the eamings distribution, with a moderately small effect on the leveI of employment, contributing to alleviate inequality.

The effects of uncertainty about the timing of deals on consumer behavior

I examine the effects of uncertainty about the timing of de aIs (i.e. temporary price cuts or sales) on consumer behavior in a dynamic inventory model of consumer choice. I derive implications for purchase behavior and test them empirically, using two years of scanner data for soft drinks. I fmd that loyal consumers' decisions, both about the allocation of their purchases over time and the quantity to be purchased in a particular deal, are affected by the uncertainty about the timing of the deal for the product. Loyal consumers buy a higher fraction of their overall purchases during de ais as the uncertainty decreases. This effect increases with an increase in the product' s share of a given consumer' s purchase in the same category or if the consumer stockpiles (i.e., is a shopper). During a particular deal, loyal shoppers increase the quantity they purchase the more time that has passed since the previous de aI, and the higher the uncertainty about the deals' timing. For the non-Ioyal consumers these effects are not significant. These results hold for products that are frequently purchased, like soft-drinks and yogurt, but do not hold for less frequentIy purchased products, such as laundry detergents. The fmdings suggest that manufacturers and retailers should incorporate the effects of deals' timing on consumers' purchase' decisions when deriving optimal pricing strategies.