Structural analysis of the place of wine in Brazil

With the constant decrease of the wine consumption in traditional winemaking countries, more and more Brazil is seen as an appealing market. But the country also pretends to become an international player of winemaking in its own right. Both the participants of the Brazilian wine industry and the foreigners trying to get advantage of this promising market are facing new challenges to develop the consumption of wine in the world’s fifth largest country. Among all the possible actions to be taken in that sense, it also is worth taking time for a collective thought on the place of wine in the country, as well as the factors that shape it. What are these factors, which ones really make the difference, and what is their respective impact on the evolution of the place of wine in the country? After drawing the big picture of the wine market situation, this thesis tries to identify the levers of the evolution of the place of wine in Brazil. Using the tools of prospective, it aims at putting into perspective the different driving forces that influence its development, and in particular the relative influence of the political drivers. This paper also intends to be a first step of a prospective study as it constitutes a solid base for scenario planning. This paper is divided in five chapters starting with “introduction”, followed by chapter 2 “Theoretical framework”. Chapter 3 is “Methodology”, followed by chapter 4 “Description and analysis of the results”. Finally the results are discussed and concluded in the last part “Conclusions and implications for future studies”.

Industry analysis of the high frequency trading industry : an assessment of the industry boundaries, environment and strategic options

O Mercado Acionário Americano evoluiu rapidamente na última década. Este tornou-se uma arquitetura aberta em que participantes com tecnologia inovadora podem competir de forma eficaz. Várias mudanças regulatórias e inovações tecnológicas permitiram mudanças profundas na estrutura do mercado. Essas mudanças, junto com o desenvolvimento tecnológico de redes de alta velocidade, agiu como um catalisador, dando origem a uma nova forma de negociação, denominada Negociação em Alta Frequência (HFT). As empresas de HFT surgiram e se apropriaram em larga escala do negócio de formação de mercado, no fornecimento de liquidez. Embora HFT tem crescido massivamente, ao longo dos últimos quatro anos, HFT perdeu rentabilidade significativamente, uma vez que mais empresas aderiram ao setor reduzindo as margens. Portanto, diante deste contexto, esta tese buscou apresentar uma breve revisão sobre a atividade de HFT, seguida de uma análise dos limites deste setor, bem como, das características do macroambiente do HFT. Para tanto, a tese realizou uma extensa revisão do histórico literário, documentos públicos qualitativos, tais como, jornais, atas de reunião e relatórios oficiais. A tese empregou um ferramental de análise, Barreiras de Entrada e Mobilidade (Porter, 1980); Modelos de Evolução Setorial (McGahan, 2004); Estrutura do Setor de Informação Intensiva (Sampler, 1998), para analisar os limites do setor de HFT. Adicionalmente, empregou as ferramentas de análise, Modelos de Evolução Setorial (McGahan, 2004) e PESTEL (JOHNSON, SCHOLES, and WHITTINGTON, 2011), para analisar o setor e o contexto que envolve o negócio de HFT. A análise concluiu que as empresas que empregam HFT para atuar e competir no mercado acionário, compoem um setor independente.

An analysis of quit and dismissal determinants between 1988 and 1999 using the bivariate probit model

Excessive labor turnover may be considered, to a great extent, an undesirable feature of a given economy. This follows from considerations such as underinvestment in human capital by firms. Understanding the determinants and the evolution of turnover in a particular labor market is therefore of paramount importance, including policy considerations. The present paper proposes an econometric analysis of turnover in the Brazilian labor market, based on a partial observability bivariate probit model. This model considers the interdependence of decisions taken by workers and firms, helping to elucidate the causes that lead each of them to end an employment relationship. The Employment and Unemployment Survey (PED) conducted by the State System of Data Analysis (SEADE) and by the Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies (DIEESE) provides data at the individual worker level, allowing for the estimation of the joint probabilities of decisions to quit or stay on the job on the worker’s side, and to maintain or fire the employee on the firm’s side, during a given time period. The estimated parameters relate these estimated probabilities to the characteristics of workers, job contracts, and to the potential macroeconomic determinants in different time periods. The results confirm the theoretical prediction that the probability of termination of an employment relationship tends to be smaller as the worker acquires specific skills. The results also show that the establishment of a formal employment relationship reduces the probability of a quit decision by the worker, and also the firm’s firing decision in non-industrial sectors. With regard to the evolution of quit probability over time, the results show that an increase in the unemployment rate inhibits quitting, although this tends to wane as the unemployment rate rises.

Forecasting electricity load demand: analysis of the 2001 rationing period in Brazil

This paper studies the electricity load demand behavior during the 2001 rationing period, which was implemented because of the Brazilian energetic crisis. The hourly data refers to a utility situated in the southeast of the country. We use the model proposed by Soares and Souza (2003), making use of generalized long memory to model the seasonal behavior of the load. The rationing period is shown to have imposed a structural break in the series, decreasing the load at about 20%. Even so, the forecast accuracy is decreased only marginally, and the forecasts rapidly readapt to the new situation. The forecast errors from this model also permit verifying the public response to pieces of information released regarding the crisis.

Word of mouth marketing in the digital age: a case study analysis of viral marketing campaigns

A era digital viu a ascensão da empresa focada no consumidor. Todos os dias, marcas e produtos são objeto de milhões de conversas em que os consumidores trocam pontos de vista, opiniões e informações antes de tomar a decisão de compra. Os profissionais de marketing entenderam a importância do boca a boca como um novo canal de comunicação estratégica e começaram a ancorar técnicas de boca a boca à estratégia de marketing global. A propaganda tornou-se um negócio de conversa: o novo desafio do marketing é criar um conteúdo envolvente e compartilhável que possa expandir e ressoar dentro de redes de sociais de consumidores. Quanto mais as pessoas falam sobre a sua marca, mais a probabilidade de ganhar a competição dura e aumentar as vendas. Mas como o boca a boca funciona? O que faz uma campanha de marketing um sucesso viral? Este trabalho tem como objetivo fornecer uma análise abrangente da teoria de marketing de boca a boca e usa um modelo descritivo para investigar as variáveis-chave de campanhas bem-sucedidas de marketing viral, a fim de proporcionar insights e sugestões para as práticas de marketing viral.

Do brazilian states engage in the fiscal war of ports? An empiric study of tax competition and an analysis of a natural experiment: the brazilian senate resolution 13/2012

O fim do ano de 2014 marcou o segundo aniversário da Resolução 13/2012 (R13) do Senado brasileiro. Grosso modo, R13 constituiu-se de um normativo do Senado cujo objetivo era o de por um fim na Guerra Fiscal dos Portos (FWP), uma competição fiscal entre os estados que se dá através da concessão de benefícios fiscais sobre operações interestaduais com mercadorias importadas de modo a atrair empresas importadoras para o território do estado concedente. R13 diminuiu o nível da tributação sobre tais operações, esperando com isso diminuir os lucros auferidos e a propensão das firmas de aceitarem tais regimes especiais de incentivação fiscal. Nada obstante, R13 gerou uma grande discussão sobre se os benefícios da atração de investimentos para um estado em particular superariam ou não os custos que esse estado incorreria em renunciar receitas tributárias em razão concessão desses benefícios fiscais. O objetivo do presente trabalho é o de dar uma contribuição a essa discussão, testando se um comportamento de interação estratégica entre estados, tal como aquele que supostamente ocorre no contexto da FWP, de fato emerge dos dados de importação coletados de janeiro de 2010 a maio de 2015, e, também, testando se a R13 de fato afetou tal comportamento de interação estratégica. Utiliza-se aqui um modelo de econometria espacial, no qual se especifica uma matriz de pesos que agrega o nível de importação das jurisdições concorrentes, organizando os dados em um painel de efeitos fixos. Os resultados sugerem que existe um comportamento de interação estratégica entre os estados e que a R13 de fato impactou tal comportamento.

The analysis of foreign market entry strategies on the basis of different cultural backgrounds and environments: a qualitative study characterising the differences and similarities of Brazilian and European firms

Moving into a new and foreign market can be challenging, especially when such market has a different culture and working environment in comparison to the home market. Thus, it is of utter importance to adjust a company’s strategy to the new market conditions. Currently, there are no concrete guidelines of what aspects are most important when moving from a developing market such as Brazil into a more sophisticated market like Europe, or vice versa. The present study will examine two companies from the same industry, but with different cultural backgrounds and its strategic similarities and differences for operating in multiple international markets. The data was collected via semi-structured interviews with the Chief Executive Officers (CEOs’) from both companies, using an interview guideline that is based on three different theoretical frameworks. The aim is to give recommendations to these two industries of how to efficiently use existing theoretical frameworks and which aspects are most significant when moving into a new market while keeping in mind a company’s size and background.

Social entrepreneurship, microcredit and development challenges: a case study analysis of Banco Pérola

The term “social entrepreneurship” has been attracting growing interest from different sectors in the past years, driven by the possibility of employing business techniques to tackle recurrent social and environmental issues. At the forefront of this global phenomenon is microcredit, seen by many as an effective anti-poverty tool and having the Grameen Bank as its flagship program. While the prospects of social entrepreneurship seem promising, the newness of the concept and its somewhat confusing definition make conditions difficult to analyze this contemporary phenomenon. Therefore, the objective of this study was to discuss the challenges faced by social entrepreneurs and alternatives of development for social businesses through a case study on a Brazilian microcredit institution and inclusive business, Banco Pérola. The case addresses a growing need for case studies designed for teaching in the field of social entrepreneurship. It was focused mainly on understanding the development challenges within Banco Pérola, and built based on interviews carried out with top management, credit officer and clients of the institution, as well as on secondary data collected. An analysis of the case study was performed under a Teaching Notes. As illustrated by the Banco Pérola case, the main difficulties encountered by social entrepreneurs relate to the systematization of processes and creation of operational routines, including for performance evaluation (impact assessment tools); to the capture and management of both financial and human capital; to scaling up the business model and to the need of forging closer and more personal relationships with customers as against in traditional banking practices. In spite of certain limitations, such as the fact that the case might soon become outdated due to the fast-changing environment surrounding Banco Pérola, or the fact that not all relevant stakeholders (e.g. partners) were selected for interviews, the research objective has been achieved and the study can be seen as a contribution to spreading the concept of social entrepreneurship.

Speculative bubbles and contagion: analysis of volatility's clusters during the DotCom bubble based on the dynamic conditional correlation model

Reviewing the de nition and measurement of speculative bubbles in context of contagion, this paper analyses the DotCom bubble in American and European equity markets using the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by (Engle and Sheppard 2001) as on one hand as an econometrics explanation and on the other hand the behavioral nance as an psychological explanation. Contagion is de ned in this context as the statistical break in the computed DCCs as measured by the shifts in their means and medians. Even it is astonishing, that the contagion is lower during price bubbles, the main nding indicates the presence of contagion in the di¤erent indices among those two continents and proves the presence of structural changes during nancial crisis