A generalization of judds method of out-steady-state comparisons in perfect foresight models

We show that Judd (1982)’s method can be applied to any finite system, contrary to what he claimed in 1987. An example shows how to employ the technic to study monetary models in presence of capital accumulation.

Ajustamento da taxa de câmbio após a crise cambial

O trabalho investiga o ajustamento da taxa de câmbio na transição de um regime de câmbio fixo com taxa de câmbio real apreciada para um regime flutuante. Pretendemos argumentar, teórica e empiricamente, que a depreciação da taxa de câmbio, bem acima da apreciação acumulada no período, que se observou nos diversos países que passaram por esta mudança de regime, é esperada e não se confunde com a análise de overshooting de Dornbusch. Em linhas bastante gerais nosso argumento é que esta depreciação excessiva pode ser o mecanismo de correção do crescimento da dívida externa, que durante o período de apreciação cambial esteve acima de sua taxa de estado estacionário. A intensidade e duração deste ajuste depende, entre outras coisas, da possibilidade de novos empréstimos, da taxa de juros paga sobre os mesmos e da resposta da balança comercial à taxa de câmbio.

Convergence in Brazil: recent trends and long run prospects

This paper applies to the analysis of the interstate income distribution in BraziI a set of techniques that have been widely used in the current empirical literature on growth and convergence. Usual measures of dispersion in the interstate income distribution (the coefficient of variation and Theil' s index) suggest that cr-convergence was an unequivoca1 feature of the regional growth experience in BraziI, between 1970 and 1986. After 1986, the process of convergence seems, however, to have sIowed down almost to a halt. A standard growth modeI is shown to fit the regional data well and to expIain a substantial amount of the variation in growth rates, providing estimates of the speed of (conditional) J3-convergence of approximateIy 3% p.a .. Different estimates of the long run distribution implied by the recent growth trends point towards further reductions in the interstate income inequality, but also suggest that the relative per capita incomes of a significant number of states and the number of ''very poor" and "poor" states were, in 1995, already quite c10se to their steady-state values.

Banks, liquidity crises and economic growth

How do the liquidity functions of banks affect investment and growth at different stages of economic development? How do financial fragility and the costs of banking crises evolve with the level of wealth of countries? We analyze these issues using an overlapping generations growth model where agents, who experience idiosyncratic liquidity shocks, can invest in a liquid storage technology or in a partially illiquid Cobb Douglas technology. By pooling liquidity risk, banks play a growth enhancing role in reducing inefficient liquidation of long term projects, but they may face liquidity crises associated with severe output losses. We show that middle income economies may find optimal to be exposed to liquidity crises, while poor and rich economies have more incentives to develop a fully covered banking system. Therefore, middle income economies could experience banking crises in the process of their development and, as they get richer, they eventually converge to a financially safe long run steady state. Finally, the model replicates the empirical fact of higher costs of banking crises for middle income economies.