"Escala de ambiguidade"

O objetivo deste trabalho foi a construção de um instrumento para medir o nível de ambiguidade expresso pelos indivíduos em situações simples do cotidiano. Definiu-se como nível de ambiguidade, a capacidade do indivíduo para criar ambiguidade diante de determinadas situações sociais. Este trabalho vem como consequência da tese de doutorado "Anomia e Desorganização: estudo psicológico em contexto brasileiro", elaborada em 1981 e cujos resultados, confrontados com a realidade cotidiana, fizeram ressaltar o modelo ambíguo característico de nossa sociedade, que se afigura sob a forma de variadas contradições nas atitudes dos indivíduos. A ambiguidade parece ser encontrada no sistema como resultante da interpretação que o indivíduo dá a padrões, leis, normas e valores ambíguos ou ainda como consequência da própria violação ou desinformação a respeito das regras, das constantes reformulações, da desconfiança, da adaptação social de um modo geral. O enfoque teórico se baseou fundamentalmente em teorias antropológicas e sociais que propõem a realidade como algo construído pelo indivíduo e onde apareceria o comportamento ambíguo como resultante da interrelação entre o indivíduo e o meio social no qual ele se desenvolve. Para a fundamentação da escala foram isolados dois fatores a saber: (1) a ambiguidade como fator social e (2) a ambiguidade como fator psicológico.

Modelo para avaliação do custo burocrático do FCVS (Fundo de Compensação de Variações Salariais) : um estudo de caso

In 1964, year of the military coup, the Brazilian government established a housing finance system with the intention of reducing the housing shortage that had been going on for decades. In order to reach this goal, the government created the Housing Finance System (acronym in Portuguese ¿ SFH), a set of rules which intended to set up a regulated market through standardized contracts and compulsory sources of funds. The system survived for some time, due to the state control of prices and salaries in the authoritarian regime. However, the increasing inflationary pressure obliged the government to adopt a populist subsidy policy, which left as a consequence outstanding balances at the end of the contracts that very often exceeded the value of the financed units. The solution adopted was to create a fund to settle these residual balances. Such fund should be capitalized by the government and by compulsory contributions from borrowers and financial institutions. Since the government did not make such contributions, the debt of this fund increased on a yearly basis, reaching around 3,5 % of Brazil¿s GDP in December 31, 2006. Due to the decline of private investments in the housing finance system, this debt concentrated mostly on public and state-owned companies, government agencies and public funds. The outcome of this policy was the Salary Variations Compensation Fund (acronym in Portuguese ¿ FCVS), which has a negative net equity of 76 billion reais and costs 100 million reais per year to be managed, and whose main creditor is the Federal Government itself.

Evaluating the existence of structural change in the brazilian term structure of interest: evidence based on cointegration models with structural break

This paper investigates whether there is evidence of structural change in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. Multivariate cointegration techniques are used to verify this evidence. Two econometrics models are estimated. The rst one is a Vector Autoregressive Model with Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) with smooth transition in the deterministic coe¢ cients (Ripatti and Saikkonen [25]). The second one is a VECM with abrupt structural change formulated by Hansen [13]. Two datasets were analysed. The rst one contains a nominal interest rate with maturity up to three years. The second data set focuses on maturity up to one year. The rst data set focuses on a sample period from 1995 to 2010 and the second from 1998 to 2010. The frequency is monthly. The estimated models suggest the existence of structural change in the Brazilian term structure. It was possible to document the existence of multiple regimes using both techniques for both databases. The risk premium for di¤erent spreads varied considerably during the earliest period of both samples and seemed to converge to stable and lower values at the end of the sample period. Long-term risk premiums seemed to converge to inter-national standards, although the Brazilian term structure is still subject to liquidity problems for longer maturities.

Green logistics: key elements for a well-functioning sustainable logistics system

A growing awareness of the modern society about the direct relationship between a growing global community with increasing total industrial activities on one hand and various environmental problems and a natural limitation of natural resources on the other hand set the base for sustainable or “green” approaches within the supply chain. This paper therefore will look at the issue of “Green Logistics” which seeks to reduce the environmental impact of logistics activities by taking into account functions such as recycling, waste and carbon emission reduction and the use of alternative sources of energy. In order to analyze how these approaches and ideas are being perceived by the system as a whole two models from the area of prospective and scenario planning are being used and described to identify the main drivers and tendencies within the system in order to create feasible hypothesis. Using the URCA/CHIVAS model allows us to identify the driver variables out of a high number of variables that best describe the system “Green Logistics”. Followed by the analysis of the actor’s strategies in the system with the Mactor model it is possible to reduce the complexity of a completely holistic system to a few key drivers that can be analyzed further on. Here the implications of URCA/CHIVAS and Mactor are being used to formulate hypotheses about the perception of Green Logistics and its successful implementation among logistics decision makers by an online survey. This research seeks to demonstrate the usefulness of scenario planning to a highly complex system observing it from all angles and extracting information about the relevant factors of it. The results of this demonstration indicate that there are drivers much beyond the factory walls that need to be considered when implementing successfully a system such as Green Logistics.