The impact of social security reform on occupational and retirement behavior : a quantitative assessment for Brazil

Population ageing is a problem that countries will have to cope with within a few years. How would changes in the social security system affect individual behaviour? We develop a multi-sectoral life-cycle model with both retirement and occupational choices to evaluate what are the macroeconomic impacts of social security reforms. We calibrate the model to match 2011 Brazilian economy and perform a counterfactual exercise of the long-run impacts of a recently adopted reform. In 2013, the Brazilian government approximated the two segregated social security schemes, imposing a ceiling on public pensions. In the benchmark equilibrium, our modelling economy is able to reproduce the early retirement claiming, the agents' stationary distribution among sectors, as well as the social security deficit and the public job application decision. In the counterfactual exercise, we find a significant reduction of 55\% in the social security deficit, an increase of 1.94\% in capital-to-output ratio, with both output and capital growing, a delay in retirement claims of public workers and a modification in the structure of agents applying to the public sector job.

Microinsurance: income risk, social security and the demand for private onsurance by low-income families

Insurance provision against uncertainties is present in several dimensions of peoples´s lives, such as the provisions related to, inter alia, unemployment, diseases, accidents, robbery and death. Microinsurance improves the ability of low-income individuals to cope with these risks. Brazil has a fairly developed financial system but still not geared towards the poor, especially in what concerns the insurance industry. The evaluation of the microinsurance effects on well-being, and the demand for different types of microinsurance require an analysis of the dynamics of the individual income process and an assessment of substitutes and complementary institutions that condition their respective financial behavior. The evaluation of the microinsurance effects on well-being, and the demand for different types of microinsurance require an analysis of the dynamics of the individual income process and an assessment of substitutes and complementary institutions that condition their respective financial behavior. The Brazilian government provides a relatively developed social security system considering other countries of similar income level which crowds-out the demand for insurance and savings. On the other hand, this same public infrastructure may help to foster microfinance products supply. The objective of this paper is to analyze the demand for different types of private insurance by the low-income population using microdata from a National Expenditure Survey (POF/IBGE). The final objective is to help to understand the trade-offs faced for the development of an emerging industry of microinsurance in Brazil.

The effect of social security, demography and technology on retirement

This article investigates the causes in the reduction of labor force participation of the old. We argue that the changes in social security policy, in technology and in demography may account for most of the changes in retirement over the second part of the last century in the U.S. economy. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that embeds social security legislation. The model is able to match very closely the increase in the retirement rate of males aged 65 and older. It also quanti es the isolated impact on retirement and on the solvency of the social security system of the di¤erent factors. The model suggests that technological and demographic changes had a strong in uence on retirement, so that it would have increased signi cantly even if the social security rules had not changed. However, as the latter became much more generous in the past, changes in social security policy can account not only for a sizeable part of the expansion of retirement, but also for the most of the observed increase in the social security expenses as a share of GDP.

The effect of social security, demography and technology on retirement

This article investigates the causes in the reduction of labor force participation of the old. We argue that the changes in social security policy, in technology and in demography may account for most of the changes in retirement over the second part of the last century in the U.S. economy. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that embeds social security legislation. The model is able to match very closely the increase in the retirement rate of males aged 65 and older. It also quanti es the isolated impact on retirement and on the solvency of the social security system of the di¤erent factors. The model suggests that technological and demographic changes had a strong in uence on retirement, so that it would have increased signi cantly even if the social security rules had not changed. However, as the latter became much more generous in the past, changes in social security policy can account not only for a sizeable part of the expansion of retirement, but also for the most of the observed increase in the social security expenses as a share of GDP.

Social security effects on income distribution: a counterfactual analysis for Brazil

According to Diamond (1977), one of the reasons for the existence of social security systems is that they function as an income redistribution mechanism. There is an extensive literature that tests whether social security systems produce the desired results in developed countries (mainly for the U.S.A.). Nevertheless, there is not an obvious consensus about this social security property and there is little evidence for developing countries. In this article, we test this property for the Brazilian Social Security System. In addition, we also look at another question which has not been answered yet in the previous literature. Is the trend of social security systems increasingly progressive or regressive? We conclude that the changes in Brazilian Social Security legislation reduced inequality between 1987 and 1996, but only for the elderly. For the other age groups, there is a stable trend. Results for the period between 1996 and 2006 reveal that the Brazilian system is neutral for all cohorts. Therefore, we found out that social security systems are not an effective mechanism for income redistribution, as predicted by previous studies.

The life-cycle effects of social security in a model with housing and endogenous benefits

This article develops a life-cycle general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents who make choices of nondurables consumption, investment in homeowned housing and labour supply. Agents retire from an specific age and receive Social Security benefits which are dependant on average past earnings. The model is calibrated, numerically solved and is able to match stylized U.S. aggregate statistics and to generate average life-cycle profiles of its decision variables consistent with data and literature. We also conduct an exercise of complete elimination of the Social Security system and compare its results with the benchmark economy. The results enable us to emphasize the importance of endogenous labour supply and benefits for agents' consumption-smoothing behaviour.

The impact on the stationary state income of a pay-as-you-go system of social security

A model of overlapping generations in continuous time is composed. IndividuaIs pass through two distinct time periods during their life times. During the first period, they work, save and have a death probability equal to zero. During the second, from the periods T after birth, their probability of death changes to p and then they retire. Capital stock and the stationary state in come are calculated for two situations: in the first, people live from their accumulated capital after retirementj in the second, they live from a state transfer payment through income taxo To simplify matters, in this preliminary version, it is supposed that there is no population growth and that the instantaneous elasticity substitution of consumption is unitary.

The Brazilian social security program:diagnosis and proposal for reform

The Brazilian pay-as-you-go social security program is analyzed in a historical perspective. Its contribution to income inequality, and the role played by the inflation as a balancing variable are discussed. It is shown that budgetary constraints due to the increasing informalization of the labor force can no longer be reconciled with protligate eligibility criteria. A tailor-made proposal for reform is presented as well as a plan for financing the transition from today's system to the proposed one.

Reforma do sistema previdenciário brasileiro: a previdência complementar e o papel do Estado

Apesar do indiscutível avanço que os sistemas previdenciários representaram no campo social verifica-se, em todo o mundo, um crescente consenso quanto à necessidade de se repensar sua estrutura. As recentes transformações da estrutura demográfica, do mercado de trabalho e do processo de globalização da economia, nos remetem a uma nova realidade e ao imperativo de buscar novas soluções para assegurar a proteção social. Por outro lado, o Estado, enquanto promotor do desenvolvimento e de redução das desigualdades, se encontra sob severo questionamento, ao passo que a moral individualista e os méritos do mercado gozam de crescente prestígio. Como resultado destas múltiplas pressões, o Brasil, a exemplo de vários outros países, vem experimentando um processo de ajustes e reforma de seu sistema previdenciário, no qual o fortalecimento do elo entre contribuições e beneficios tem-se constituído o principal elemento. Nesse sentido, o desenvolvimento do regime complementar privado ocupa um espaço cada vez maior na formulação e execução de políticas públicas. Com a aprovação da Emenda Constitucional no. 20 (em dezembro de 1998) foram lançadas as novas diretrizes para o sistema previdenciário brasileiro. O trabalho analisa as iniciativas estatais até o momento realizadas, e sua contribuição para a construção de um arcabouço regulatório para a área, mais adequado às novas demandas sociais, econômicas e políticas

The effect of social security, health, demography and technology on retirement

This article studies the determinants of the labor force participation of the elderly and investigates the factors that may account for the increase in retirement in the second half of the last century. We develop a life-cycle general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that embeds Social Security legislation and Medicare. Individuals are ex ante heterogeneous with respect to their preferences for leisure and face uncertainty about labor productivity, health status and out-of-pocket medical expenses. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy in 2000 and is able to reproduce very closely the retirement behavior of the American population. It reproduces the peaks in the distribution of Social Security applications at ages 62 and 65 and the observed facts that low earners and unhealthy individuals retire earlier. It also matches very closely the increase in retirement from 1950 to 2000. Changes in Social Security policy - which became much more generous - and the introduction of Medicare account for most of the expansion of retirement. In contrast, the isolated impact of the increase in longevity was a delaying of retirement.

Os extremos do ciclo de vida: trabalho infantil e aposentadoria precoce

Este trabalho procura analisar dois problemas bastante graves que afligem a sociedade brasileira. De um lado, a entrada precoce na força de trabalho, que tem sua face mais perversa no trabalho infantil; de outro, a saída também precoce da força de trabalho de adultos em idade ainda produtiva. Ambos fenômenos são empobrecedores para a sociedade e atuam como mecanismo de geração e perpetuação de pobreza. O trabalho infantil, discutido na primeira parte do trabalho, prejudica a educação. A saída precoce da força de trabalho, analisado na segunda parte do trabalho, é um desperdício de recursos. Na terceira parte é desenvolvida uma análise formal que procura mostrar o quanto um sistema de aposentadorias como o sistema previdenciário brasileiro, que garante uma renda por vida às pessoas após um certo anos de trabalho, pode induzir escolhas que embora ótimas do ponto de vista privado são bastante custosas do ponto vista social. Especificamente, procura-se mostrar como esta legislação pode incentivar tanto a entrada quanto a saída precoce do mercado de trabalho.

As reformas da previdência no Brasil e o equilíbrio e atuarial dos Regimes Próprios de Previdência Social (RPPS), dos entes federados estaduais da Região Sudeste

O desequilíbrio das contas públicas, notadamente em relação à previdência do servidor público no Brasil, tem levado a buscas constantes de soluções para garantir o custeio do modelo em desenvolvimento. As mudanças estabelecidas nas Reformas da Previdência têm contribuído de forma significativa para diminuir o passivo previdenciário acumulado ao longo dos anos, principalmente nos estados, municípios das capitais e dos demais constituídos antes da promulgação da Carta Magna de 1988. Os estados escolhidos para análise demonstraram desacertos, todavia apresentam resultados promissores para o equilíbrio financeiro e atuarial dos RPPS. A utilização de modelos parecidos aos implementados na América do Sul, para o setor público e privado, apresentam-se inadequados no Brasil para os servidores públicos. Precisamos continuar aprimorando os nossos conhecimentos, buscando novas alternativas que garantam a sustentabilidade e viabilidade do sistema, sem comprometer a capacidade de investimentos dos entes federados

Os efeitos macroeconômicos das transferências sociais: uma abordagem de matriz de contabilidade social

Government transfers to individuals and families play a central role in the Brazilian social protection system, accounting for almost 14 per cent of GDP in 2009. While their fiscal and redistributive impacts have been widely studied, the macroeconomic effects of transfers are harder to ascertain. We constructed a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2009 and estimated short-term multipliers for seven different government monetary transfers . The SAM is a double-entry square matrix depicting all income flows in the economy. The data were compiled from the 2009 Brazilian National Accounts and the 2008/2009 POF, a household budget survey. Our SAM was disaggregated into 56 sectors, 110 commodities, 200 household groups and seven factors of production (capital plus six types of labor, according to schooling). Finally, we ran a set of regressions to separate household consumption into ‘autonomous’ (or ‘exogenous’) and ‘endogenous’ components. More specifically, we are interested in the effects of an exogenous injection into each of the seven government transfers outlined above. All the other accounts are thus endogenous. The so-called demand ‘leaks’ are income flows from the endogenous to exogenous accounts. Leaks—such as savings, taxes and imports—are crucial to determine the multiplier effect of an exogenous injection, as they allow the system to go back to equilibrium. The model assumes that supply is perfectly elastic to demand shocks. It assumes that the families’ propensity to save and consumption profile are fixed—that is, rising incomes do not provoke changes in behaviour. The multiplier effects of the on GDP corresponds to the growth in GDP resulting from each additional dollar injected into each transfer seven government transfers. If the government increased Bolsa Família expenditures by 1 per cent of GDP, overall economic activity would grow by 1.78 per cent, the highest effect. The Continuous Cash Benefit, comes second. Only three transfers— the private-sector and public servants’ pensions and FGTS withdrawals—had multipliers lower than unity. The multipliers for other relevant macroeconomic aggregates—household and total consumption, disposable income etc. —reveal a similar pattern. Thus, under the stringent assumptions of our model, we cannot reject the hypothesis that government transfers targeting poor households, such as the Bolsa Família, help foster economic expansion. Naturally, it should be stressed that the multipliers relate marginal injections into government transfers to short-term economic performance either real growth, or inflation if there is no idle capacity which is also useful to analyze. In the long term, there is no doubt that what truly matters is the growth of the country’s productive capacity.

O exército brasileiro na segurança pública

Este estudo descritivo-explicativo teve como finalidade demonstrar as principais dificuldades enfrentadas pelo atual Sistema Brasileiro de Segurança Pública, em conseqüência, pelos órgãos de segurança pública, para diminuir os índices de criminalidade e violência praticados no país. Para isso, enfoca o Exército Brasileiro como possível subsistema do sistema de segurança pública, abordando aspectos da estrutura funcional e operacional da Força Terrestre que poderiam ser empregados, em apoio aos órgãos policiais, no combate à criminal idade. Conclui apresentando possíveis setores em que o Exército Brasileiro poderia atuar na área da segurança pública, sem prejudicar suas missões constitucionais.

A política de segurança pública no estado de Minas Gerais

Este trabalho faz uma abordagem acerca da política de segurança pública no Estado de Minas Gerais. Discute-se o próprio processo de formulação da política pública, procedendo-se a uma análise de seus fundamentos e da forma pela qual o Governo do Estado trata as questões a ela inerentes. Através de pesquisa seletiva, chegou-se a diagnósticos que demonstram a situação atual da política considerada, enfocando-se principalmente os aspectos relacionados a recursos humanos, logística e orçamento, sempre confrontados com os demais setores de atuação do Estado na vida social. A premissa básica que penneia toda a pesquisa é a de que não existe uma política de segurança pública, sistematizada, no Estado de Minas Gerais. A lógica da investigação da participação orçamentária da atividatfe de segurança pública, confrontada com a evolução do aparato policial, está na tentativa de se demonstrar a ausência do Estado no efetivo acompanhamento da necessidade social de segurança. Por meio da análise dos instrumentos utilizados na pesquisa, referendou-se o processo decisório da política, com a ausência de participação do staff político e gerencial do governo, mas centrado na divisão dicotômica dos organismos policiais do Estado, a Polícia Militar e a Polícia Civil, como planejadores, decisores e executores de toda a ação que envolva segurança pública. A dimensão institucional dessa atuação é calcada numa resposta pro ativa até certo ponto, mas a sua tônica é o "agir" ante as demandas surgidas e, principalmente, quando acionadas pelo clamor público. A alusão ao sistema de defesa social, previsto na Constituição do Estado, é a resposta da pesquisa para o atendimento dessa demanda social, aliado à adoção do policiamento comunitário.