The Brazilian social security program:diagnosis and proposal for reform

The Brazilian pay-as-you-go social security program is analyzed in a historical perspective. Its contribution to income inequality, and the role played by the inflation as a balancing variable are discussed. It is shown that budgetary constraints due to the increasing informalization of the labor force can no longer be reconciled with protligate eligibility criteria. A tailor-made proposal for reform is presented as well as a plan for financing the transition from today's system to the proposed one.

The Brazilian credit market for small and medium-sized firms: an adaptive marketing approach

Neste trabalho, o mercado brasileiro de crédito para pequenas e médias empresas (PMEs) é analisado sob a perspectiva do marketing adaptativo, em que se assume que atividades mercadológicas como segmentação, gestão de relacionamento com clientes, apreçamento e desenvolvimento de produtos, são determinadas pela utilidade obtida por agentes de mercado ao atenderem a demanda. Identifica-se que a existência de assimetria de informações e de custos de transação limita e direciona as atividades de marketing no mercado estudado. A partir de uma amostra com 65.535 propostas de crédito, recebidas e avaliadas por um grande banco brasileiro entre janeiro de 2004 e setembro de 2006, estima-se a utilidade do banco em operações de crédito. Adicionalmente, 17.149 transações de empréstimos concedidos pelo banco ao segmento de pequenas empresas entre abril de 2006 e março de 2007, são investigadas. Finalmente, um conjunto de dados com 1,636 registros obtidos pela junção das bases de dados de propostas e de transações mencionados, é analisado em termos das relações entre taxas de juros e os totais de cobertura oferecidas por meio de garantias de crédito. Os resultados revelam a existência de um ambiente de marketing adaptativo, em que os pequenos tomadores de crédito produtivo são racionados, e aceitam pagar taxas de juros mais elevadas do que outros segmentos. Produtos de créditos baseados em garantias líquidas e com altas taxas de juros são desenvolvidos para suprir de maneira oportuna este segmento racionado de pequenas empresas. Ademais, a utilidade do banco em operações de crédito é afetada pela informação privada que captura ao longo de relacionamentos mantidos com seus cientes. Os resultados implicam que o sistema de marketing financeiro brasileiro não desempenha papel formativo no desenvolvimento econômico, que seria de fomento ao crédito produtivo por meio de empréstimos a baixo custo para pequenas e médias empresas. Um sistema formativo de marketing é improvável em um ambiente com informação imperfeita, como o mercado de crédito brasileiro. O estudo traz informações úteis àqueles interessados no desenvolvimento de mercados de crédito produtivo, tais como profissionais de instituições financeiras; agentes responsáveis por políticas públicas e monetárias de fomento ao crédito; e empreendedores de pequeno e médio porte que necessitem de financiamento externo para seus negócios.

Demand aggregation and credit risk effects in pooled procurement: evidence from the Brazilian public purchases of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies

Pooled procurement has an important role in reducing acquisition prices of goods. A pool of buyers, which aggregates demand for its members, increases bargaining power and allows suppliers to achieve economies of scale and scope in the production. Such aggregation demand e ect lowers prices paid for buyers. However, when a buyer with a good reputation for paying suppliers in a timely manner is joined in the pool by a buyer with bad reputation may have its price paid increased due to the credit risk e ect on prices. This will happen because prices paid in a pooled procurement should refect the (higher) average buyers' credit risk. Using a data set on Brazilian public purchases of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies, we nd evidence supporting both e ects. We show that the prices paid by public bodies in Brazil are lower when they buy through pooled procurement than individually. On the other hand, federal agencies (i.e. good buyers) pay higher prices for products when they are joined by state agencies (i.e. bad buyers) in a pool. Such evidence suggests that pooled procurement should be carefully designed to avoid that prices paid increase for its members.

Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon

This work aims to compare the forecast efficiency of different types of methodologies applied to Brazilian Consumer inflation (IPCA). We will compare forecasting models using disaggregated and aggregated data over twelve months ahead. The disaggregated models were estimated by SARIMA and will have different levels of disaggregation. Aggregated models will be estimated by time series techniques such as SARIMA, state-space structural models and Markov-switching. The forecasting accuracy comparison will be made by the selection model procedure known as Model Confidence Set and by Diebold-Mariano procedure. We were able to find evidence of forecast accuracy gains in models using more disaggregated data

Exploring attitudes and behavioral intention of brazilian consumers towards fair trade and fair trade products

As vendas globais de produtos FT cresceram de forma consistente nos últimos anos. De acordo com a FLO, as vendas cresceram de menos de € 1 bilhão em 2004 para cerca de € 5,5 bilhões em 2013. Apesar do movimento ainda estar engatinhando no Brasil, alguns esforços visando a institucionalização da FT estão sendo tomados. Por exemplo, o Schneider (2012) mostrou que existe um mercado potencial para os produtos FT no Brasil. Entretanto, ele ainda não é bem desenvolvido. Portanto, há uma necessidade de compreender melhor as variáveis que afetam a intenção de compra destes produtos. Estudos anteriores identificaram fatores que são considerados previsores de intenção de comprar produtos FT. Considerando esses fatores, o presente estudo tem como objetivo determinar as variáveis que estão mais relacionadas com a intenção de compra e disposição para pagar por produtos FT no Brasil. Com base nas respostas de 124 entrevistados, os resultados mostram que a intenção de compra de produtos FT no Brasil está ligada a atitudes de consumo éticas dos consumidores, o interesse e qualidade dos produtos, baixo ceticismo e percepção de relevância acerca do conceito FT. Os resultados também mostraram dois grupos antagônicos de consumidores a respeito de suas atitudes. O grupo dos "ativistas" tem atitudes positivas, de alta intenção de compra e disposição a pagar mais. Por outro lado, os "incrédulos" têm atitudes negativas, baixa intenção de compra e não estão dispostos a pagar mais. Com base nos resultados deste estudo, organizações e indivíduos que visam fomentar o mercado FT no Brasil podem entender melhor o consumidor e tomar decisões de marketing mais assertivas, considerando a relevância dos fatores que afetam a intenção de comprar, como também as diferenças entre os consumidores.

Financial governance: the Brazilian experience on prudential regulation and its impacts on the effects of the 2008 financial crisis

The Brazilian economy was severely hit by the 2008 crisis. In the beginning of the crisis, the vast majorities of the economic agents and authorities thought that Brazil could face some sort of decoupling since some macroeconomic fundamentals were very good. What we saw, however, was that the Brazilian economy was not decoupled, and expectations faced a huge deterioration soon after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 15th. Two aspects regarding the impact of crisis in Brazil, however, deserve a great deal of attention: (a) although deep, the impact did not last for a long time. Actually, the GDP growth experienced a good recovery in the second quarter of 2009, showing that the health of the Brazilian economy was good; (b) the Brazilian banking system performed very well during the crisis, although we cannot say the system was not in danger in the worst time of the crisis. In spite of the confidence crisis faced by the banking system 1, it showed a great deal of resilience. In this aspect, we argue that the restructure faced by the banking system in the aftermath of the Real Plan, as well as the development of a solid supervision regulation helped a lot the system to avoid the systemic crisis that was an open possibility to the Brazilian banking system in the end of 2008. These notes, thus, discusse why the Brazilian banking system performed pretty well in the 2008 financial crisis and how the Brazilian banking (and prudential) regulation can be taken as responsible for this good performance. More specifically, the paper back to the middle of the 1990s, when the Real Plan was implemented, in order to understand the role played by the restructuring of the Brazilian financial system in helping to pave the way to the great resilience experienced by the Brazilian banking system during the 2008 crisis. More specifically, the prudential regulation that was implemented in Brazil in the aftermath of the Real Plan seems to play a decisive role in the resilience of the system nowadays.

The Brazilian venture capital industry and its strategic role in closing the financing gap of SMEs

This discussion paper is a contribution of the Brazilian Government to the 2006 Annual Conference of the OECD High-level Conference on "Better Financing for Entrepreneurship and SMEs" to be held in Brasilia, Brazil on 27-30 March 2006. It has been prepared by The Center for Studies in Private Equity and Venture Capital of EAESP-Fundação Getúlio Vargas under the auspices of ABDI – Agência Brasileira para o Desenvolvimento Industrial – an agency of the Ministry of Industrial Development and Foreign Trade, in cooperation with ABVCAP – The Brazilian Association of Private Equity and Venture Capital

Is what you say what you do? Analyzing and comparing the effect of buyer-supplier relationship in the Brazilian and Chinese supplier selection criteria

Choosing properly and efficiently a supplier has been challenging practitioners and academics since 1960’s. Since then, countless studies had been performed and relevant changes in the business scenario were considered such as global sourcing, quality-orientation, just-in-time practices. It is almost consensus that quality should be the selection driver, however, some polemical findings questioned this general agreement. Therefore, one of the objectives of the study was to identify the supplier selection criteria and bring this discussion back again. Moreover, Dickson (1966) suggested existing business relationship as selection criterion, then it was reviewed the importance of business relationship for the company and noted a set of potential negative effects that could rise from it. By considering these side effects of relationship, this research aimed to investigate how the relationship could influence the supplier selection and how its harmful effects could affect the selection process. The impact of this phenomenon was investigated cross-nationally. The research strategy adopted was a controlled experiment via vignette combined with discrete choice analysis. The data collections were performed in China and Brazil. By examining the results, it could be drawn five major findings. First, when purchasers were asked to declare their supplier selection priorities, quality was stated as the most important independently of country and relationship. This result was consistent with diverse studies since 60’s. However, when purchasers were exposed to a multi-criteria trade-off situation, their actual selection priorities deviate from what they had declared. In the actual decision-making without influence of buyer-supplier relationship, Brazilian purchasers focused on price and Chinese buyers prioritized delivery then price. This observation reinforced some controversial prior studies of Verma & Pullman (1998) and Hirakubo & Kublin (1998). Second, through the introduction of the buyer-supplier relationship (operationalized via relational capital) in the supplier selection process, this research extended the existing studies and found that Brazilian buyers still focused on price. The relationship became just another criterion for supplier selection such as quality and delivery. However, from the Chinese sample, the results suggested that quality was totally discarded and the decision was majorly made through price and relationship. The third finding suggested that relational capital could legitimate the quality and sustainability of the supplier and replaces these selection criteria and made the decisional task less complex. Additionally, with the relational capital, the decision-makings were associated to few biases such as availability cognition, commitment, confirmatory and perceived biases. By analyzing the purchasers’ behavior, relational capital inducted buyers of both countries to relax in their purchasing requirements (quality, delivery and sustainability) leading to potential negative effects. In the Brazilian sample, the phenomenon of willing to pay a higher price for a lower quality offer demonstrated to be a potential counterproductive and suboptimal decision. Finally, the last finding was associated to the cultural effect on the buyers’ decisions. From the outcome, it is possible to observe that if a purchaser’s cultural background is more relation-oriented, the more he will tend to use relational capital as a decision heuristic, thus, the purchaser will be more susceptible to the potential relationship’s side effects

The Brazilian class C women perception regarding premium mass products in the beauty industry

Recentemente, os mercados emergentes se tornaram um alvo potencial para a indústria da beleza e o Brasil está se tornando um mercado lucrativo para os produtos cosméticos Premium (Euromonitor International, 2013). A população de baixa renda no Brasil representa 70% de seus habitantes ao considerar as classes C, D e E (Barki e Parente, 2010), sendo a classe C representada por 56% da população (Neri, 2012). Este é um mercado potencial para as empresas multinacionais (MNCs), que enfrentam desafios de fazer negócios no país, visto que a classe C opta por gastar parte de sua renda com produtos relacionados a beleza (Silva e Parente, 2007) e ainda há um pouco conhecimento sobre o comportamento de consumo na base da pirâmide. Portanto, o objetivo deste estudo é investigar e descrever o comportamento de consumo das mulheres brasileiras da classe C no setor de beleza, em relação aos produtos Mass Premium, melhorando o conhecimento no que diz respeito a essa população e ao tema proposto. Para atingir esse objetivo, o autor utilizou uma metodologia baseada em uma análise descritivas qualitativa em que foram entrevistadas 20 mulheres de todas as faixas etárias, que pertencem à classe C brasileira e citações foram usadas para fornecer a confirmação dos resultados da análise. Os resultados sugerem que, ao longo dos anos, houve de fato um movimento de trade up no consumo de produtos de beleza. Além disso, foram identificados cinco aspectos principais, que conduzem decisão de compra das mulheres de classe C, no setor de beleza: confiabilidade, qualidade, status, autoestima e bem-estar. Apesar das limitações de um estudo exploratório, espera-se que a pesquisa aumente o conhecimento sobre o mercado da base da pirâmide, especialmente no que diz respeito à indústria da beleza.

The BRICS: some historical experiences, growth challenges and opportunities

The acronym BRICS was a fad among the media and global investors. Now, the acronym sounds passé. However, the group of countries remains important, from both political and economic reasons. They have a large aggregate size, 28% of the global GDP and 42% of the world’s population, high growth potential due to the current significant misallocation of resources and relatively low stock of human capital, structural transformation is in progress and one of them, China, is taking steps to become a global power and a challenger to the US dominance. This paper provides a brief overview of the five economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. We focus on some aspects of their history, the Chinese initiatives in international finance and geopolitical strategic moves, their growth experience and structural transformation over the last 35 years, trade and investment integration into the global economy and among themselves, the growth challenges faced by their economies and the potential gains to the Brazilian economy from a stronger integration with the other BRICS. In association with its efforts to be a global power, China aims to become a major player in global finance and to achieve the status of global currency for the renminbi, which would be the first currency of an emerging economy to attain such position. Despite the similarities, the BRICS encompass very diverse economies. In the recent decades, China and India showed stellar growth rates. On the other hand, Brazil, Russia and South Africa have expanded just in line with global output growth with the Russian economy exhibiting high volatility. China is by far the largest economy, and South Africa the smallest, the only BRICS economy with a GDP lower than US$ 1 trillion. Russia abandoned communism almost 25 years ago, but reversed many of the privatizations of 90’s. China is still ruled by communism, but has a vibrant private sector and recently has officially declared market forces to play a dominant role in its economy. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are global natural resources powerhouses and commodity exporters while China and India are large commodity importers. Brazil is relatively closed to international trade of goods and services, in marked contrast to the other four economies. Brazil, India and South Africa are dependent on external capital flows whereas China and Russia are capital exporters. India and South Africa have younger populations and a large portion living below the poverty line. Despite its extraordinary growth experience that lifted many millions from poverty, China still has 28% of its population classified as poor. Russia and China have much older populations and one of their challenges is to deal with the effects of a declining labor force in the near future. India, China and South Africa face a long way to urbanization, while Brazil and Russia are already urbanized countries. China is an industrial economy but its primary sector still absorbs a large pool of workers. India is not, but the primary sector employs also a large share of the labor force. China’s aggregate demand structure is biased towards investment that has been driving its expansion. Brazil and South Africa have an aggregate demand structure similar to the developed economies, with private consumption accounting for approximately 70%. The same similarity applies to the supply side, as in both economies the share of services nears 70%. The development problem is a productivity problem, so microeconomic reforms are badly needed to foster long-term growth of the BRICS economies since they have lost steam due a variety of factors, but fundamentally due to slower total factor productivity growth. China and India are implementing ambitious reform programs, while Brazil is dealing with macroeconomic disequilibria. Russia and South Africa remain mute about structural reforms. There are some potential benefits to Brazil to be extracted from a greater economic integration with the BRICS, particularly in natural resources intensive industries and services. Necessary conditions to the materialization of those gains are the removal of the several sources of resource misallocation and strong investment in human capital.