A monthly indicator of Brazilian GDP. The Brazilian business cycle and growth cycle

This paper constructs an indicator of Brazilian GDP at the monthly ftequency. The peculiar instability and abrupt changes of regimes in the dynamic behavior of the Brazilian business cycle were explicitly modeled within nonlinear ftameworks. In particular, a Markov switching dynarnic factor model was used to combine several macroeconomic variables that display simultaneous comovements with aggregate economic activity. The model generates as output a monthly indicator of the Brazilian GDP and real time probabilities of the current phase of the Brazilian business cycle. The monthly indicator shows a remarkable historical conformity with cyclical movements of GDP. In addition, the estimated filtered probabilities predict ali recessions in sample and out-of-sample. The ability of the indicator in linear forecasting growth rates of GDP is also examined. The estimated indicator displays a better in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance in forecasting growth rates of real GDP, compared to a linear autoregressive model for GDP. These results suggest that the estimated monthly indicator can be used to forecast GDP and to monitor the state of the Brazilian economy in real time.

Growth and distribution: a revised classical model

This paper discusses distribution and the historical phases of capitalism. It assumes that technical progress and growth are taking place, and, given that, its question is on the functional distribution of income between labor and capital, having as reference classical theory of distribution and Marx’s falling tendency of the rate of profit. Based on the historical experience, it, first, inverts the model, making the rate of profit as the constant variable in the long run and the wage rate, as the residuum; second, it distinguishes three types of technical progress (capital-saving, neutral and capital-using) and applies it to the history of capitalism, having the UK and France as reference. Given these three types of technical progress, it distinguishes four phases of capitalist growth, where only the second is consistent with Marx prediction. The last phase, after World War II, should be, in principle, capital-saving, consistent with growth of wages above productivity. Instead, since the 1970s wages were kept stagnant in rich countries because of, first, the fact that the Information and Communication Technology Revolution proved to be highly capital using, opening room for a new wage of substitution of capital for labor; second, the new competition coming from developing countries; third, the emergence of the technobureaucratic or professional class; and, fourth, the new power of the neoliberal class coalition associating rentier capitalists and financiers

Growth process in business and social entrepreneurship: the case of Brazil

The purpose of the dissertation is to investigate in depth the difference between the challenges social and business entrepreneurs face in the growth phase of their business in the particular environment of Brazil. This objective has been achieved through a two-steps methodology. The first step is a set of in-depth interviews carried out with industry experts such as professors, venture capitalists, consultants, fund managers or people involved in the support of growing startups (i.e. accelerators). These interviews allowed, first, to build a general perspective on the environment entrepreneurs operate into and to identify a list of challenges entrepreneurs face in the growth process of their business. This list was completed with the additional challenges identified in the previous literature. The second step of the methodology was to test the relevance of these challenges in the mind and experience of social and traditional entrepreneurs. A questionnaire was then submitted to 145 social and 286 traditional entrepreneurs. The results were statistically analyzed to test the relative relevance of these challenges for one group of entrepreneurs with respect to the other. The outcome of the analysis was significant. The most relevant challenges identified were, for both groups, taxation, bureaucracy, finding the right employees, creating effective teams, measuring firm performance and social value creation and obtaining funds. On the other side motivation, innovation, competition and lack of market space for growth represented the least relevant issues in the minds of entrepreneurs. This rank however did not differ significantly from social to traditional entrepreneurs. This testifies that in Brazil social and traditional entrepreneurs face the same set of challenges despite the widespread belief of the opposite.