Rational expectations and the service of public debt: a recursive approach

This paper uses dynamic programming to study the time consistency of optimal macroeconomic policy in economies with recurring public deficits. To this end, a general equilibrium recursive model introduced in Chang (1998) is extended to include govemment bonds and production. The original mode! presents a Sidrauski economy with money and transfers only, implying that the need for govemment fmancing through the inflation tax is minimal. The extended model introduces govemment expenditures and a deficit-financing scheme, analyzing the SargentWallace (1981) problem: recurring deficits may lead the govemment to default on part of its public debt through inflation. The methodology allows for the computation of the set of alI sustainable stabilization plans even when the govemment cannot pre-commit to an optimal inflation path. This is done through value function iterations, which can be done on a computeI. The parameters of the extended model are calibrated with Brazilian data, using as case study three Brazilian stabilization attempts: the Cruzado (1986), Collor (1990) and the Real (1994) plans. The calibration of the parameters of the extended model is straightforward, but its numerical solution proves unfeasible due to a dimensionality problem in the algorithm arising from limitations of available computer technology. However, a numerical solution using the original algorithm and some calibrated parameters is obtained. Results indicate that in the absence of govemment bonds or production only the Real Plan is sustainable in the long run. The numerical solution of the extended algorithm is left for future research.

Economic recovery from the Argentine great depression : institutions, expectations, and the change of macroeconomic regime

This work explores how Argentina overcame the Great Depression and asks whether active macroeconomic interventions made any contribution to the recovery. In particular, we study Argentine macroeconomic policy as it deviated from gold-standard orthodoxy after the final suspension of convertibility in 1929. As elsewhere, fiscal policy in Argentina was conservative, and had little power to smooth output. Monetary policy became heterodox after 1929. The first and most important stage of institutional change took place with the switch from a metallic monetary regime to a fiduciary regime in 1931; the Caja de Conversión (Conversion Office, a currency board) began rediscounting as a means to sterilize gold outflows and avoid deflationary pressures, thus breaking from orthodox "mIes of the game." However, the actual injections of liquidity were small' and were not enough to fully offset the incipient monetary contractions: the "Keynes" effect was weak or negative. Rather, recovery derived from changes in beliefs and expectations surrounding the shift in the monetary and exchange-rate regime,and the delinking of gold flows and the money base. Agents perceivod a new regime, as shown by the path of consumption, investment, and estimated ex ante real interest rates: the "Mundell" effect was dominant. Notably, this change of regime predated a later, and supposedly more significant, stage of institutional reform, namely the creation of the central bank in 1935. Still, the extent of intervention was weak, and insufficient to fully offset externaI shocks to prices and money. Argentine macropolicy was heterodox in terms of the change of regime, but still conservative in terms of the tentative scope of the measures taken .

Demand expectations and the timing of stimulus policies

This paper proposes a simple macroeconomic model with staggered investment decisions. The model captures the dynamic coordination problem arising from demand externalities and fixed costs of investment. In times of low economic activity, a firm faces low demand and hence has less incentives for investing, which reinforces firms’ expectations of low demand. In the unique equilibrium of the model, demand expectations are pinned down by fundamentals and history. Owing to the beliefs that arise in equilibrium, there is no special reason for stimulus at times of low economic activity.

Oficiais da Marinha Mercante: um estudo sobre os fatores contribuintes para a evasão nos anos iniciais da carreira embarcada

A indústria de transporte marítimo brasileira passa por um momento de forte expansão decorrente, entre outros fatores, de políticas governamentais que incentivam a construção, nos estaleiros nacionais, de navios para serem utilizados em apoio às atividades da indústria de óleo e gás. Ao mesmo tempo, para complementar a frota brasileira, as empresas petroleiras demandam a contratação de grande quantidade de navios estrangeiros para apoiar as suas operações. Este quadro de crescimento da frota, observado, particularmente, nos últimos 10 anos, contrasta com a escassez de mão de obra qualificada para tripular as embarcações, de modo especial dos Oficiais da Marinha Mercante (OMM). Acentuando o contraste, o Conselho Nacional de Imigração editou a Resolução Normativa n° 72/2006, determinando às empresas de navegação, que operam barcos de bandeira estrangeira, a contratação de proporções mínimas de tripulantes brasileiros, após 90 dias contínuos de operação no país. Além disso, estudos encomendados pelo Sindicato dos Armadores, SYNDARMA, apontam que a taxa de evasão dos OMM, nos anos iniciais da carreira embarcada, é de cerca de trinta por cento. Assim, o presente estudo, a partir de uma revisão bibliográfica acerca da história da Marinha Mercante brasileira, da cultura brasileira, da motivação, dos conflitos família-trabalho, do trabalho em espaço confinado e da rotatividade, se desenvolveu em uma pesquisa exploratória e de campo, por meio de entrevistas pessoais, analisadas à luz da técnica da análise de conteúdo, com profissionais de reconhecida experiência com o tema, além de OMM, com o objetivo de identificar os fatores contribuintes para a evasão dos OMM nos anos iniciais da carreira embarcada. Como resultado, o estudo mostrou que os agentes motivadores intrínsecos e extrínsecos agem continuamente direcionando o comportamento dos OMM para a permanência ou saída da carreira embarcada. Nessa alternância de forças psicológicas e comportamentais, associadas à motivação, influenciam no processo decisório as alternativas existentes representadas pelas oportunidades de emprego oferecidas aos OMM, os conflitos trabalho-família e a dificuldade de adaptação ao trabalho em ambiente confinado. No caso dos OMM, do gênero feminino, a situação é ainda mais sensível, pois enfrentam dificuldades para conciliar a vida embarcada com o papel de mãe e esposa. Portanto, a motivação para a permanência ou saída da carreira embarcada está fortemente relacionada à busca pela realização das expectativas pessoais e ao desejo de equilibrar vida pessoal com a profissional.

Neww challenges in the luxury universe: an exploratory study of the concept of luxury experience in the Brazilian market from the perspective of brands and consumers: a case study of Pati Piva.

Luxury has evolved over the centuries; new challenges have created questions of appropriate strategies for brands. Experience and authenticity became important aspects in the field: consumers are enjoying more material comfort and there is a trend of a cultural shift for personal fulfillment and aspiration through experience. The biggest challenge for today's luxury marketers is to not only talk to the target, but to understand how the target is shifting, while not alienating consumers and damaging the brand´s image. Considering managers and consumers perspectives separately, it would be possible to conclude that their perceptions are congruent, as many studies have presented. However, if perspectives are put together and compared, different realities could emerge. This exploratory research is based on a case study that describes both perspectives of their perception on luxury experience, consumer behavior and consumption motivations, and luxury retailing. It was developed interviews with the brand owner and 10 brand´s consumers, and also indirect observations in the brands distribution formats. In the brand perspective, the case study has shown that luxury experience involves the construction of brand experience strategy based on products, multiple retail channels, consumer engagement, personal activity, exploration of five senses and other forms. In the consumer´s perspective, results revealed that brand consumers interviwed have different luxury experience perceptions and expectations; however, what is common is that service and quality must be maintained and they reflected the overall experience. Additionally, luxury retailing influences directly the consumer´s perception that must integrate multiple channels to fulfill personal demands. The research makes contributions for both actors - brand and consumer, in the sense that translates theoretical concepts of the experience itself and tries to clarify aspects that are still unknown and explored through the exploration of ways to detect the alignment between brand and consumer expectations of the experience.