A resposta japonesa aos choques de oferta: 1973/1981

This paper discusses some theoretical aspects of supply shocks and describes the impact of supply shocks on the japanese economy using some comparasions with USA and Brazil. The outstanding results on adjusting on "Oil shocks were due to a tight and orthodox monetary policy associate with some peculiarites of the japanese labor market .

O governo Geisel, o II PND e os economistas

Esta pesquisa pretende analisar o Governo Geisel e o II Plano Nacional de Desenvolvimento, verificando se essa política econômica representou a implantação de um novo padrão de acumulação no Brasil ou se trata de uma fase mais avançada do padrão de acumulação de bens duráveis que vigorava no País com os planos anteriores. O II PND aumentou ou diminuiu a dependência brasileira no contexto internacional? Esse plano é tão heterodoxo quanto o I PND ou representa uma guinada ortodoxa? Qual foi o papel e o peso dos gestores econômicos no Governo Geisel?

Modelos ortodoxos de inflação alta: uma análise crítica

This paper argues that orthodox models of high inflation for developing countries, based on seminal Cagan's model of hyperinflation, present some weak points by ignoring the complexity brought to the economy by high inflation, as well as by assuming that economic agents can dwell in this situation because they are endowed with an "unbounded rationality" to take their decisions. The paper argues too, that in order to understand this process and to suggest proper policies, it is necessary to recognize that a desinflationary process requires gradual policies that allow economic agents to adjust their behavior to the new circumstances that are brought about by these policies. The hypothesis to make about this behavior is that is characterized by a "bounded rationality".

Economic recovery from the Argentine great depression : institutions, expectations, and the change of macroeconomic regime

This work explores how Argentina overcame the Great Depression and asks whether active macroeconomic interventions made any contribution to the recovery. In particular, we study Argentine macroeconomic policy as it deviated from gold-standard orthodoxy after the final suspension of convertibility in 1929. As elsewhere, fiscal policy in Argentina was conservative, and had little power to smooth output. Monetary policy became heterodox after 1929. The first and most important stage of institutional change took place with the switch from a metallic monetary regime to a fiduciary regime in 1931; the Caja de Conversión (Conversion Office, a currency board) began rediscounting as a means to sterilize gold outflows and avoid deflationary pressures, thus breaking from orthodox "mIes of the game." However, the actual injections of liquidity were small' and were not enough to fully offset the incipient monetary contractions: the "Keynes" effect was weak or negative. Rather, recovery derived from changes in beliefs and expectations surrounding the shift in the monetary and exchange-rate regime,and the delinking of gold flows and the money base. Agents perceivod a new regime, as shown by the path of consumption, investment, and estimated ex ante real interest rates: the "Mundell" effect was dominant. Notably, this change of regime predated a later, and supposedly more significant, stage of institutional reform, namely the creation of the central bank in 1935. Still, the extent of intervention was weak, and insufficient to fully offset externaI shocks to prices and money. Argentine macropolicy was heterodox in terms of the change of regime, but still conservative in terms of the tentative scope of the measures taken .