Brazilian indexing and inertial inflation: evidence from time-varying estimates of an inflation transfer function

This paper is a theoretica1 and empirica1 study of the re1ationship between indexing po1icy and feedback mechanisms in the inflationary adjustment process in Brazil. The focus of our study is on two policy issues: (1) did the Brazilian system of indexing of interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages make inflation so dependent on its own past values that it created a significant feedback process and inertia in the behaviour of inflation in and (2) was the feedback effect of past inf1ation upon itself so strong that dominated the effect of monetary/fiscal variables upon current inflation? This paper develops a simple model designed to capture several "stylized facts" of Brazi1ian indexing po1icy. Separate ru1es of "backward indexing" for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages, reflecting the evolution of po1icy changes in Brazil, are incorporated in a two-sector model of industrial and agricultural prices. A transfer function derived irom this mode1 shows inflation depending on three factors: (1) past values of inflation, (2) monetary and fiscal variables, and (3) supply- .shock variables. The indexing rules for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages place restrictions on the coefficients of the transfer function. Variations in the policy-determined parameters of the indexing rules imply changes in the coefficients of the transfer function for inflation. One implication of this model, in contrast to previous results derived in analytically simpler models of indexing, is that a higher degree of indexing does not make current inflation more responsive to current monetary shocks. The empirical section of this paper studies the central hypotheses of this model through estimation of the inflation transfer function with time-varying parameters. The results show a systematic non-random variation of the transfer function coefficients closely synchronized with changes in the observed values of the wage-indexing parameters. Non-parametric tests show the variation of the transfer function coefficients to be statistically significant at the time of the changes in wage indexing rules in Brazil. As the degree of indexing increased, the inflation feadback coefficients increased, while the effect of external price and agricultura shocs progressively increased and monetary effects progressively decreased.

governo eletrônico como propiciador da reforma do estado: o caso do leilão reverso na web para licitação pública

A presente dissertação versa sobre o uso da Tecnologia da Informação e Comunicação aplicada aos processos de gestão pública à luz dos conceitos de eficácia, eficiência e accountabítlity. Para tanto, este estudo se funda sobre dois marcos teóricos. O primeiro trata do desenvolvimento científico-tecnológico e suas implicações na construção de uma sociedade resultante da interação da microeletrônica, da informatização e da telecomunicação. O segundo diz respeito à reforma do Estado Brasileiro, num contexto em que se discute a necessidade de torná-lo mais ágil, flexível e mais responsável perante a sociedade. Metodologicamente, valemo-nos do estudo de caso múltiplo, no qual analisamos o Pregão Eletrônico utilizado pelo Governo Federal para aquisição de bens e serviços nos moldes do leilão reverso do mercado de flores de Amsterdã. Especificamente, trata-se do Pregão 21/2001, realizado pelo Ministério da Previdência e Assistência Social, para compra de medicamentos. Este estudo contempla não só os diferentes aspectos do comércio eletrônico, como o procurement, mas também descreve o processo tradicional de licitações públicas. Ao final, concluímos que a adoção da tecnologia da informação aplicada à gestão pública, em especial como ferramenta para aquisição de bens e serviços, mostrouse eficiente ao promover uma redução de custos, tanto dos processos governamentais, quanto dos produtos adquiridos, fato extremamente relevante se considerarmos a realidade orçamentária brasileira. Ficou também comprovada a sua eficácia, evidenciada pela redução do tempo necessário à realização do procedimento, uma vez comparado ao processo tradicional de licitações pública. Por outro lado, podemos afirmar que a iniciativa amplia o grau de transparência das informações do setor público brasileiro, reconfigurando as relações EstadoSociedade.

Watching the World Cup, one data point at a time

Retirado do blog de Marc Pickren do dia 13 jun. 2014.

Watching the World Cup, one data point at a time

Sound the vuvuzelas, the World Cup is officially here. The biggest sporting event in the world is set to break all kinds of viewing records. Sporting in the digital world is just as much about stats as it is about the game itself. Enter Brandwatch. The social media analytics company has taken it upon itself to track social media statistics for the entire run of the World Cup with their new real-time data visualization tool.

The corporate financial effects of corporate social responsibility, as executed by, and impacted upon, Prime Bank Limited, Bangladesh

Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) is being implemented in the corporate world at an ever increasing rate, benefitting societies around the world. Several theories have been proposed that contend that the corporations who are implementing CSR programs also benefit financially, making the relationship a symbiotic one. This paper analyzes the financial health of Prime Bank Limited, Bangladesh, (PBL) over a period of a decade in order to determine if PBL has indeed benefited financially from implementing its CSR program. The analysis focuses on examining PBL’s internal and external financial indicators over an extended period of time to determine what the net effect, if any, that the CSR program has had on them. This analysis concludes that the evidence does not support the claim of a causal relationship between CSR spending and positive effects upon PBL, as measured by PBL’s financial indicators.