Pro-poor growth and social programmes in Brazil

From a methodological point of view, this paper makes two contributions to the literature. One contribution is the proposal of a new measure of pro-poor growth. This new measure provides the linkage between growth rates in mean income and in income inequality. In this context, growth is defined as propoor (or anti-poor) if there is a gain (or loss) in the growth rate due to a decrease (or increase) in inequality. The other contribution is a decomposition methodology that explores linkages between growth patterns and social policies. Through the decomposition analysis, we assess the contribution of different income sources to growth patterns. The proposed methodologies are then applied to the Brazilian National Household Survey (PNAD) covering the period 1995-2004. The paper analyzes the evolution of Brazilian social indicators based on per capita income exploring links with adverse labour market performance and social policy change, with particular emphasis on the expansion of targeted cash transfers and devising more pro-poor social security benefits.

Linkages between growth, poverty and the labour market

From a methodological point of view, this paper makes two contributions to the literature. One contribution is the proposal of a new measure of pro-poor growth. This new measure provides the linkage between growth rates in mean income and in income inequality. In this context, growth is defined as pro-poor (or anti-poor) if there is a gain (or loss) in the growth rate due to a decrease (or increase) in inequality. The other contribution is a decomposition methodology that explores linkages growth patterns, and labour market performances. Through the decomposition analysis, growth in per capita income is explained in terms of four labour market components: the employment rate, hours of work, the labour force participation rate, and productivity. The proposed methodology are then applied to the Brazilian National Household Survey (PNAD) covering the period 1995-2004. The paper analyzes the evolution of Brazilian social indicators based on per capita income exploring links with adverse labour market performance.

Regional or educational disparities? a counterfactual exercise

This work investigates the impact of schooling Oil income distribution in statesjregions of Brazil. Using a semi-parametric model, discussed in DiNardo, Fortin & Lemieux (1996), we measure how much income diíferences between the Northeast and Southeast regions- the country's poorest and richest - and between the states of Ceará and São Paulo in those regions - can be explained by differences in schooling leveIs of the resident population. Using data from the National Household Survey (PNAD), we construct counterfactual densities by reweighting the distribution of the poorest region/state by the schooling profile of the richest. We conclude that: (i) more than 50% of the income di:fference is explained by the difference in schooling; (ii) the highest deciles of the income distribution gain more from an increase in schooling, closely approaching the wage distribution of the richest region/state; and (iii) an increase in schooling, holding the wage structure constant, aggravates the wage disparity in the poorest regions/ states.

Evidence of eligibility manipulation for conditional cash transfer programs

This paper assesses whether eligibility for conditional cash transfer programs have been manipulated, as well as the impact of this phenomenon on time allocation within households. To perform this analysis, we use data from the 2006 PNAD (Brazilian national household survey) and investigate the eligibility manipulation for the Bolsa Família (Family Stipend) program during this time period. The program assists families with a monthly per capita income of around R$120.00 (US$60.00). By applying the tests developed by McCrary (2008), we find suggestive evidence that individuals manipulate their income by voluntarily reducing their labor supply in order to become eligible to the program. Moreover, the reduction in labor supply is greater among women, especially single or divorced mothers. This evidence raises some concern about the unintended consequences related to the eligibility criteria utilized by Bolsa Família, as well as the program’s impact on individuals living in extreme poverty.

Linkages between pro-poor growth, social programmes and labour market : the recent Brazilian experience

From a methodological point of view, this paper makes two contlibutions to the literature. One contribution is the proposal of a new measure of pro-poor growth. This new measure provides the linkage between growth rates in mean income and in income inequality. In this context, growth is defined as pro-poor (or anti-poor) if there is a gain (or loss) in the growth rate due to a decrease (or increase) in inequality. The other contribution is a decomposition methodology that explores linkages between three dimensions: growth pattems, labour market performances. and social policies. Through the decomposition analysis, growth in per capita income is explained in terms of four labour market components: the employment rate. hours of work, the labour force participation rate. and productivity. We also assess the contribution of different nonlabour income sources to growth patterns. The proposed methodologies are then applied to the Brazilian National Household Survey (PNAD) covering the period 1995-2004. The paper analyzes the evolution of Brazilian social indicators based on per capita income exploring links with adverse labour market performance and social policy change, with particular emphasis on the expansion of targeted cash transfers and devising more propoor social security benefits.

Microinsurance: income risk, social security and the demand for private onsurance by low-income families

Insurance provision against uncertainties is present in several dimensions of peoples´s lives, such as the provisions related to, inter alia, unemployment, diseases, accidents, robbery and death. Microinsurance improves the ability of low-income individuals to cope with these risks. Brazil has a fairly developed financial system but still not geared towards the poor, especially in what concerns the insurance industry. The evaluation of the microinsurance effects on well-being, and the demand for different types of microinsurance require an analysis of the dynamics of the individual income process and an assessment of substitutes and complementary institutions that condition their respective financial behavior. The evaluation of the microinsurance effects on well-being, and the demand for different types of microinsurance require an analysis of the dynamics of the individual income process and an assessment of substitutes and complementary institutions that condition their respective financial behavior. The Brazilian government provides a relatively developed social security system considering other countries of similar income level which crowds-out the demand for insurance and savings. On the other hand, this same public infrastructure may help to foster microfinance products supply. The objective of this paper is to analyze the demand for different types of private insurance by the low-income population using microdata from a National Expenditure Survey (POF/IBGE). The final objective is to help to understand the trade-offs faced for the development of an emerging industry of microinsurance in Brazil.

Três ensaios em economia da educação

Essa tese é composta por três artigos na área de Economia da Educação que buscam investigar a questão do ensino médio técnico no Brasil. O primeiro e segundo artigos se inserem na literatura de avaliação de impacto dos tipos de ensino médio realizado, o de formação geral ou técnica, sobre os resultados do mercado de trabalho. Esse é um tema cada vez mais explorado em estudos empíricos internacionais, mas que ainda merece atenção dos pesquisadores no Brasil, seja para preencher lacunas no que se refere à identificação do efeito causal dessa política, seja porque o ensino técnico profissionalizante tenha se tornado alvo de maiores investimentos públicos nos últimos anos. Dessa forma, os dois artigos têm o propósito de estimar o efeito causal das habilidades técnicas adquiridas nos cursos técnicos de nível médio sobre os salários dos trabalhadores, no entanto se diferem pela fonte de dados utilizada. No primeiro artigo são utilizados os dados da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (IBGE) de 2007 e nossa contribuição está na estratégia de identificação do efeito causal, ao resolver o problema de auto seleção com o método de duplas diferenças (DD). Diversos testes de robustez foram realizados para dar suporte ao impacto positivo e estatisticamente significante que encontramos das habilidades técnicas sobre os salários, embora este seja restrito ao subgrupo de trabalhadores com no máximo o ensino médio completo. No segundo artigo foram utilizadas duas fontes de dados ainda não exploradas para esse fim, os microdados do ENEM (Exame Nacional do Ensino Médio) entre os anos de 2004 e 2006 e os dados da RAIS (Relação Anual de Informações Sociais) de 2009 a 2012 identificados por indivíduo (CPF). Por ser possível observar as notas dos jovens ao final do ensino médio, conseguimos separar os impactos do ensino médio técnico nos salários relacionados às habilidades técnicas específicas obtidas nos cursos técnicos, daqueles relacionados às habilidades gerais dos indivíduos (cognitivas ou não). Implementamos a estratégia de duplas diferenças e mais uma vez encontramos impacto positivo sobre os salários anuais dos jovens que concluíram o ensino médio técnico. Dessa vez nossos resultados são positivos tanto para os jovens que pararam seus estudos no ensino médio como para aqueles que concluíram o ensino superior. Verificamos a existência de heterogeneidade do efeito por região do país e nos quartis de distribuição de notas médias por escola no ENEM, indicando que os efeitos são crescentes com a qualidade oferecida pelas escolas. O terceiro artigo tem por objetivo estudar o mercado de trabalho no que diz respeito às ocupações tipicamente preenchidas por profissionais com nível médio técnico e analisar os diferenciais de salários dessas ocupações. A partir das ideias desenvolvidas no estudo, almejamos que ele seja orientador de políticas que relacionem educação técnica com demandas do mercado, com a finalidade de melhorar o matching entre formação e emprego. Entre as contribuições deste artigo estão a identificação e classificação das ocupações típicas de nível médio técnico pelo diferencial de salários, a correspondência entre as ocupações e as formações técnicas, a análise da atual oferta de vagas nos cursos correspondentes e o destaque para os cursos que parecem necessitar de maiores investimentos para o suprir as necessidades de mais profissionais.