Essays in corporate risk management

This research investigates the factors that lead Latin American non-financial firms to manage risks using derivatives. The main focus is on currency risk management. With this purpose, this thesis is divided into an introduction and two main chapters, which have been written as stand-alone papers. The first paper describes the results of a survey on derivatives usage and risk management responded by the CFOs of 74 Brazilian non-financial firms listed at the São Paulo Stock Exchange (BOVESPA), and the main evidence found is: i) larger firms are more likely to use financial derivatives; ii) foreign exchange risk is the most managed with derivatives; iii) Brazilian managers are more concerned with legal and institutional aspects in using derivatives, such as the taxation and accounting treatment of these instruments, than with issues related to implementing and maintaining a risk management program using derivatives. The second paper studies the determinants of risk management with derivatives in four Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico). I investigate not only the decision of whether to use financial derivatives or not, but also the magnitude of risk management, measured by the notional value of outstanding derivatives contracts. This is the first study, to the best of my knowledge, to use derivatives holdings information in emerging markets. The use of a multi-country setting allows the analysis of institutional and economic factors, such as foreign currency indebtedness, the high volatility of exchange rates, the instability of political and institutional framework and the development of financial markets, which are issues of second-order importance in developed markets. The main contribution of the second paper is on the understanding of the relationship among currency derivatives usage, foreign debt and the sensitivity of operational earnings to currency fluctuations in Latin American countries. Unlikely previous findings for US firms, my evidence shows that derivatives held by Latin American firms are capable of producing cash flows comparable to financial expenses and investments, showing that derivatives are key instruments in their risk management strategies. It is also the first work to show strong and robust evidence that firms that benefit from local currency devaluation (e.g. exporters) have a natural currency hedge for foreign debt that allows them to bear higher levels of debt in foreign currency. This implies that firms under this revenue-cost structure require lower levels of hedging with derivatives. The findings also provide evidence that large firms are more likely to use derivatives, but the magnitude of derivatives holdings seems to be unrelated to the size of the firm, consistent with findings for US firms.

Opções reais em projetos de investimentos: o caso de uma planta de liquefação de gás natural com flexibilidade de troca de mercado e de troca de produto

O objetivo deste trabalho é revisar os principais aspectos teóricos para a aplicação de Opções Reais em avaliação de projetos de investimento e analisar, sob esta metodologia, um caso real de projeto para investir na construção de uma Planta de Liquefação de gás natural. O estudo do caso real considerou a Opção de Troca de Mercado, ao avaliar a possibilidade de colocação de cargas spot de GNL em diferentes mercados internacionais e a Opção de Troca de Produto, devido à flexibilidade gerencial de não liquefazer o gás natural, deixando de comercializar GNL no mercado internacional e passando a vender gás natural seco no mercado doméstico. Para a valoração das Opções Reais foi verificado, através da série histórica dos preços de gás natural, que o Movimento Geométrico Browniano não é rejeitado e foram utilizadas simulações de Monte Carlo do processo estocástico neutro ao risco dos preços. O valor da Opção de Troca de Mercado fez o projeto estudado mais que dobrar de valor, sendo reduzido com o aumento da correlação dos preços. Por outro lado, o valor da Opção de Troca de Produto é menos relevante, mas também pode atingir valores significativos com o incremento de sua volatilidade. Ao combinar as duas opções simultaneamente, foi verificado que as mesmas não são diretamente aditivas e que o efeito do incremento da correlação dos preços, ao contrário do que ocorre na Opção de Troca de Mercado, é inverso na Opção de Troca de Produto, ou seja, o derivativo aumenta de valor com uma maior correlação, apesar do valor total das opções integradas diminuir.

Natural disasters and their impacts on supply chains

This research aimed to understand how Brazilian organizations, located in areas affected by natural disasters were impacted in their operations and the impacts to their whole supply chain. Based on documentary analysis, the study identified the major events that happened in Brazil between 2003 and 2012 and the most affected supply chains, as well as key players during the disaster and the greatest impacts on economic activities. The results suggest that natural disasters are still not considered in the risk management by companies, despite the effects on their activities