We're Chained: an analysis of systemic risk in finance

This dissertation presents two papers on how to deal with simple systemic risk measures to assess portfolio risk characteristics. The first paper deals with the Granger-causation of systemic risk indicators based in correlation matrices in stock returns. Special focus is devoted to the Eigenvalue Entropy as some previous literature indicated strong re- sults, but not considering different macroeconomic scenarios; the Index Cohesion Force and the Absorption Ratio are also considered. Considering the S&P500, there is not ev- idence of Granger-causation from Eigenvalue Entropies and the Index Cohesion Force. The Absorption Ratio Granger-caused both the S&P500 and the VIX index, being the only simple measure that passed this test. The second paper develops this measure to capture the regimes underlying the American stock market. New indicators are built using filtering and random matrix theory. The returns of the S&P500 is modelled as a mixture of normal distributions. The activation of each normal distribution is governed by a Markov chain with the transition probabilities being a function of the indicators. The model shows that using a Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of the normalized eigenval- ues exhibits best fit to the returns from 1998-2013.

Uma investigação empírico-exploratória acerca da causalidade dos indicadores operacionais de call center com a satisfação dos clientes

Year after year the call center industry comes presenting high growth, either in Brazil or the world, using increasing contingent of people and receiving large amount of financial resources. Supporting all this industry, exists a theoretical reference that privileges the search of the improvement of diverse operational performance indicators. This study, empirically examines the relationship between caller satisfaction and diverse operational performance indicators currently used for call center management in Brazil. For in such a way, a group of telecommunications segment call centers will be used searching to determine which indicators are really more significantly correlated with the customer satisfaction. Of this form, it is aimed at to add new evidences and explanations to existing literature, in way that companies of call center industry can give a more adequate service to their customer, opposite to solely focus its efforts in the improvement of a great set of performance pointers that, effectively, can not become related with the customer satisfaction.

Indicadores de performance na cadeia de suprimentos

Esta dissertação procura explorar dentro do conceito de Cadeia de Suprimentos, como sendo um conjunto de atividades relacionadas à gestão do fluxo de materiais e de Logística Empresarial; não só a importância dos processos correlacionados tais como: planejamento, implementação e controle do fluxo de materiais, mas principalmente, a importância de medir e monitorar o desempenho destes processos, como forma de manter a empresa competitiva e atualizada em suas práticas. Expor alguns conceitos sobre indicadores de performance, suas funções, implicações e aplicabilidades, a fim de que não sejam mal interpretados ou mal utilizados uma vez que, da correta interpretação e utilização, depende a superioridade das empresas. Para muitas empresas hoje, o diferencial competitivo está no quanto o processo de logística é bem administrado. Para alcançar excelência em logística deve-se assegurar que os processos-chave correlacionados estejam alinhados com a estratégia central do negócio, e que sejam constantemente medidos contra objetivos de performance pré-definidos. Podendo ainda, estes objetivos, serem estabelecidos conjuntamente a cada um de seus parceiros e integrantes da cadeia (clientes / fornecedores / sub-contratados) a fim de criar-se um entendimento comum de expectativas e resultados.

Responsabilidade social corporativa e gaps de percepção: um estudo de caso

A disseminação do termo Responsabilidade Social Corporativa e de suas respectivas ações demonstra o grande potencial que as empresas possuem para atenuar ou agravar problemas sociais e ambientais. Hoje, existem diversas métricas que permitem medir a efetividade das ações de Responsabilidade Social praticadas pelas organizações e assim divulgar os feitos em RSC tanto em relatórios para investidores e quanto em outros meios. Esta pesquisa propõe analisar o desempenho em Responsabilidade Social de uma empresa do segmento de logística, pela percepção dos seus funcionários, confrontando-a com o discurso da empresa procurando identificar gaps de percepção. À luz de teorias da Escola de Frankfurt e de estudos em Responsabilidade Social, são analisadas possíveis causas para a existência de gaps entre a percepção dos funcionários e o discurso da empresa. Para delimitar o escopo da pesquisa, dada a amplitude do tema, foram utilizados os Indicadores Ethos de Responsabilidade Social Empresarial para identificar o desempenho em RSC da empresa analisada.

Três ensaios sobre política monetária e crédito

In the first essay, "Determinants of Credit Expansion in Brazil", analyzes the determinants of credit using an extensive bank level panel dataset. Brazilian economy has experienced a major boost in leverage in the first decade of 2000 as a result of a set factors ranging from macroeconomic stability to the abundant liquidity in international financial markets before 2008 and a set of deliberate decisions taken by President Lula's to expand credit, boost consumption and gain political support from the lower social strata. As relevant conclusions to our investigation we verify that: credit expansion relied on the reduction of the monetary policy rate, international financial markets are an important source of funds, payroll-guaranteed credit and investment grade status affected positively credit supply. We were not able to confirm the importance of financial inclusion efforts. The importance of financial sector sanity indicators of credit conditions cannot be underestimated. These results raise questions over the sustainability of this expansion process and financial stability in the future. The second essay, “Public Credit, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability”, discusses the role of public credit. The supply of public credit in Brazil has successfully served to relaunch the economy after the Lehman-Brothers demise. It was later transformed into a driver for economic growth as well as a regulation device to force private banks to reduce interest rates. We argue that the use of public funds to finance economic growth has three important drawbacks: it generates inflation, induces higher loan rates and may induce financial instability. An additional effect is the prevention of market credit solutions. This study contributes to the understanding of the costs and benefits of credit as a fiscal policy tool. The third essay, “Bayesian Forecasting of Interest Rates: Do Priors Matter?”, discusses the choice of priors when forecasting short-term interest rates. Central Banks that commit to an Inflation Target monetary regime are bound to respond to inflation expectation spikes and product hiatus widening in a clear and transparent way by abiding to a Taylor rule. There are various reports of central banks being more responsive to inflationary than to deflationary shocks rendering the monetary policy response to be indeed non-linear. Besides that there is no guarantee that coefficients remain stable during time. Central Banks may switch to a dual target regime to consider deviations from inflation and the output gap. The estimation of a Taylor rule may therefore have to consider a non-linear model with time varying parameters. This paper uses Bayesian forecasting methods to predict short-term interest rates. We take two different approaches: from a theoretic perspective we focus on an augmented version of the Taylor rule and include the Real Exchange Rate, the Credit-to-GDP and the Net Public Debt-to-GDP ratios. We also take an ”atheoretic” approach based on the Expectations Theory of the Term Structure to model short-term interest. The selection of priors is particularly relevant for predictive accuracy yet, ideally, forecasting models should require as little a priori expert insight as possible. We present recent developments in prior selection, in particular we propose the use of hierarchical hyper-g priors for better forecasting in a framework that can be easily extended to other key macroeconomic indicators.

Reflexões sobre a utilização do balanced scorecard na gestão da cadeia de suprimentos: um estudo de caso na unidade operacional de uma grande distribuidora de combustíveis

As organizações contemporâneas apresentam elevado grau de complexidade. A extensa cadeia de processos deve ser gerenciada de forma integrada e requer descentralização da tomada de decisões para assegurar respostas ágeis aos estímulos do ambiente competitivo. Este contexto demanda a criação de ferramentas de gestão que apoiem os gestores no atingimento dos objetivos estratégicos globais das empresas, como o modelo de referência analisado neste trabalho, que alia as métricas de gestão da cadeia de suprimentos com o conceito do Balanced Scorecard. Este trabalho objetivou, por um lado, avaliar a atual arquitetura de indicadores de desempenho da unidade operacional (UO) de uma grande distribuidora de combustíveis à luz deste modelo de referência e, por outro, testar o modelo de referência através do estudo de caso quanto à sua universalidade de aplicação por diferentes empresas. Dentre os resultados obtidos, destacam-se: a arquitetura de indicadores atual da UO está desequilibrada nas dimensões do BSC – comparada à dimensão financeira que apresenta 7 indicadores, a dimensão clientes apresenta somente 2 indicadores; identificou-se uma lacuna de 50% na relação de indicadores de desempenho da UO quando a confrontamos com o modelo de referência; para as lacunas identificadas, desenvolveu-se um plano de ação para sua incorporação à arquitetura da UO; constatou-se que 24% das métricas do modelo de referência não se aplicam à realidade da UO e; o modelo de referência não abarca itens relevantes como treinamento, engajamento e Saúde, Meio Ambiente e Segurança (SMS), primordial para a realidade da empresa, que acompanha atualmente 6 indicadores de SMS. Verificou-se, também, que o uso de um modelo de referência genérico não é o mais adequado por causa das complexidades intrínsecas de cada uma das organizações. Entretanto, o mesmo pode ser usado como um guia para verificação de suficiência dos indicadores pré-selecionados por uma determinada empresa porque indica lacunas que podem não ser percebidas no processo de seleção.

Mitigating high ‘equity capital’ risk exposure to ‘small cap’ sector in India: analysing ‘key factors of success’ for ‘Institutional Investors’ whilst Investing in small cap sector in India

This paper deals with the subject of mitigating high ‘Equity Capital’ Risk Exposure to ‘Small Cap’ Sector in India. Institutional investors in India are prone to be risk averse when it comes to investing in the small cap sector in India as they find the companies risky and volatile. This paper will help analyse ‘Key Factors of success’ for ‘Institutional Investors’ whilst investing in Small Cap sector in India as some of these Indian small cap stocks offer handsome returns despite economic downturn. This paper has been harnessed carefully under the influence of expert investors, which includes Benjamin Graham (Security Analysis); Warren Buffet; Philip Fisher (Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits); and Aswath Damodaran.

Essays in corporate risk management

This research investigates the factors that lead Latin American non-financial firms to manage risks using derivatives. The main focus is on currency risk management. With this purpose, this thesis is divided into an introduction and two main chapters, which have been written as stand-alone papers. The first paper describes the results of a survey on derivatives usage and risk management responded by the CFOs of 74 Brazilian non-financial firms listed at the São Paulo Stock Exchange (BOVESPA), and the main evidence found is: i) larger firms are more likely to use financial derivatives; ii) foreign exchange risk is the most managed with derivatives; iii) Brazilian managers are more concerned with legal and institutional aspects in using derivatives, such as the taxation and accounting treatment of these instruments, than with issues related to implementing and maintaining a risk management program using derivatives. The second paper studies the determinants of risk management with derivatives in four Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico). I investigate not only the decision of whether to use financial derivatives or not, but also the magnitude of risk management, measured by the notional value of outstanding derivatives contracts. This is the first study, to the best of my knowledge, to use derivatives holdings information in emerging markets. The use of a multi-country setting allows the analysis of institutional and economic factors, such as foreign currency indebtedness, the high volatility of exchange rates, the instability of political and institutional framework and the development of financial markets, which are issues of second-order importance in developed markets. The main contribution of the second paper is on the understanding of the relationship among currency derivatives usage, foreign debt and the sensitivity of operational earnings to currency fluctuations in Latin American countries. Unlikely previous findings for US firms, my evidence shows that derivatives held by Latin American firms are capable of producing cash flows comparable to financial expenses and investments, showing that derivatives are key instruments in their risk management strategies. It is also the first work to show strong and robust evidence that firms that benefit from local currency devaluation (e.g. exporters) have a natural currency hedge for foreign debt that allows them to bear higher levels of debt in foreign currency. This implies that firms under this revenue-cost structure require lower levels of hedging with derivatives. The findings also provide evidence that large firms are more likely to use derivatives, but the magnitude of derivatives holdings seems to be unrelated to the size of the firm, consistent with findings for US firms.

Risky business: social media metrics and political risk analysis

A quantificação do risco país – e do risco político em particular – levanta várias dificuldades às empresas, instituições, e investidores. Como os indicadores econômicos são atualizados com muito menos freqüência do que o Facebook, compreender, e mais precisamente, medir – o que está ocorrendo no terreno em tempo real pode constituir um desafio para os analistas de risco político. No entanto, com a crescente disponibilidade de “big data” de ferramentas sociais como o Twitter, agora é o momento oportuno para examinar os tipos de métricas das ferramentas sociais que estão disponíveis e as limitações da sua aplicação para a análise de risco país, especialmente durante episódios de violência política. Utilizando o método qualitativo de pesquisa bibliográfica, este estudo identifica a paisagem atual de dados disponíveis a partir do Twitter, analisa os métodos atuais e potenciais de análise, e discute a sua possível aplicação no campo da análise de risco político. Depois de uma revisão completa do campo até hoje, e tendo em conta os avanços tecnológicos esperados a curto e médio prazo, este estudo conclui que, apesar de obstáculos como o custo de armazenamento de informação, as limitações da análise em tempo real, e o potencial para a manipulação de dados, os benefícios potenciais da aplicação de métricas de ferramentas sociais para o campo da análise de risco político, particularmente para os modelos qualitativos-estruturados e quantitativos, claramente superam os desafios.

An evolving possibilistic fuzzy modeling approach for value-at-risk estimation

Market risk exposure plays a key role for nancial institutions risk management. A possible measure for this exposure is to evaluate losses likely to incurwhen the price of the portfolio's assets declines using Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates, one of the most prominent measure of nancial downside market risk. This paper suggests an evolving possibilistic fuzzy modeling approach for VaR estimation. The approach is based on an extension of the possibilistic fuzzy c-means clustering and functional fuzzy rule-based modeling, which employs memberships and typicalities to update clusters and creates new clusters based on a statistical control distance-based criteria. ePFM also uses an utility measure to evaluate the quality of the current cluster structure. Computational experiments consider data of the main global equity market indexes of United States, London, Germany, Spain and Brazil from January 2000 to December 2012 for VaR estimation using ePFM, traditional VaR benchmarks such as Historical Simulation, GARCH, EWMA, and Extreme Value Theory and state of the art evolving approaches. The results show that ePFM is a potential candidate for VaR modeling, with better performance than alternative approaches.