A model of mixed signals with applications to countersignaling an the GED

We develop a job-market signaling model where signals may convey two pieces of information. This model is employed to study the GED exam and countersignaling (signals non-monotonic in ability). A result of the model is that countersignaling is more expected to occur in jobs that require a combination of skills that differs from the combination used in the schooling process. The model also produces testable implications consistent with evidence on the GED: (i) it signals both high cognitive and low non-cognitive skills and (ii) it does not affect wages. Additionally, it suggests modifications that would make the GED a more signal.

Two Essays on the economics of Education

We develop a job-market signaling model where signals may convey two pieces of information. This model is employed to study the GED exam and countersignaling (signals non-monotonic in ability). A result of the model is that countersignaling is more expected to occur in jobs that require a combination of skills that differs from the combination used in the schooling process. The model also produces testable implications consistent with evidence on the GED: (i) it signals both high cognitive and low non-cognitive skills and (ii) it does not affect wages. Additionally, it suggests modifications that would make the GED a more effective signal.

Contribuições para a formação do administrador no mundo contemporâneo: uma abordagem psicossocial

Esta pesquisa pretendeu investigar possíveis articulações, dos alunos no curso de graduação em administração, entre a idealização do papel de futuro profissional, a dinâmica da classe e a demanda do mercado de trabalho contemporâneo. Os sujeitos foram 50 (cinqüenta) alunos da disciplina de Psicologia no segundo semestre do curso de administração e seus professores. Centramos esta investigação em entrevistas com alunos, observação da dinâmica interacional presente na classe, devolutiva do processo grupal em seminário com alunos, análise dos exames finais; aplicação de questionários a professores; levantamento bibliográfico dos teóricos da administração na área de relacionamento interpessoal. Perguntamo-nos: como alunos, professores e teóricos definem o administrador competente? Que estratégias facilitam a formação das competências necessárias para o administrador contemporâneo? Quais seriam as possíveis estratégias facilitadoras para a formação dessas competências na graduação?

Uma análise da concorrência no setor brasileiro de celulose

Este trabalho analisa o setor brasileiro de celulose e tenta responder a duas questões principais: a abrangência do mercado relevante e a existência de poder de mercado das empresas que atuam neste setor. A dimensão produto do mercado relevante foi definida a partir de dados qualitativos. Devido à indisponibilidade de dados para uma análise qualitativa mais apurada, a opção foi pela celulose de fibra curta de eucalipto, produto mais importante do setor, tanto pela posição brasileira em tecnologia como pela pauta de exportações. Já quanto à dimensão geográfica, o procedimento realizado baseou-se em Forni (2004) que utiliza testes de raiz unitária para a definição do mercado. Concluiu-se que, com os dados disponíveis, o mercado deste produto pode ser considerado como internacional, não somente pelo resultado do teste como também pelo modo de funcionamento deste mercado. Definido o mercado de produto e geográfico, realizou-se um teste de poder de mercado, pois neste nicho, a Aracruz é líder mundial. Tal teste foi realizado com base na demanda residual descrita por Mayo, Kaserman e Kahai (1996) e estimado segundo Motta (2004). Concluiu-se que, apesar de a Aracruz possuir um elevado market share no setor, ela não possui poder de mercado.

Income inequality in a job-search model with heterogeneous discount factors: (revised version, forthcoming 2006, Revista Economia)

This paper investigates the income inequality generated by a jobsearch process when di§erent cohorts of homogeneous workers are allowed to have di§erent degrees of impatience. Using the fact the average wage under the invariant Markovian distribution is a decreasing function of the discount factor (Cysne (2004, 2006)), I show that the Lorenz curve and the between-cohort Gini coe¢ cient of income inequality can be easily derived in this case. An example with arbitrary measures regarding the wage o§ers and the distribution of time preferences among cohorts provides some insights into how much income inequality can be generated, and into how it varies as a function of the probability of unemployment and of the probability that the worker does not Önd a job o§er each period.

Income inequality in a job-search model with heterogeneous time preferences

This paper explores the use of an intertemporal job-search model in the investigation of within-cohort and between-cohort income inequality, the latter being generated by the heterogeneity of time preferences among cohorts of homogenous workers and the former by the cross-sectional turnover in the job market. It also offers an alternative explanation for the empirically-documented negative correlation between time preference and labor income. Under some speciÖc distributions regarding wage offers and time preferences, we show how the within-cohort and between-cohort Gini coe¢ cients of income distribution can be calculated, and how they vary as a function of the parameters of the model.

A restatement of the welafare costs of inflation. The wast of scarce resources in the manufacturing , banking and household sectors

Lucas (2000) estimates that the US welfare costs of inflation are around 1% of GDP. This measurement is consistent with a speci…c distorting channel in terms of the Bailey triangle under the demand for monetary base schedule (outside money): the displacement of resources from the production of consumption goods to the household transaction time à la Baumol. Here, we consider also several new types of distortions in the manufacturing and banking industries. Our new evidences show that both banks and firms demand special occupational employments to avoid the inflation tax. We de…ne the concept of ”the foat labor”: The occupational employments that are aflected by the in‡ation rates. More administrative workers are hired relatively to the bluecollar workers for producing consumption goods. This new phenomenon makes the manufacturing industry more roundabout. To take into account this new stylized fact and others, we redo at same time both ”The model 5: A Banking Sector -2” formulated by Lucas (1993) and ”The Competitive Banking System” proposed by Yoshino (1993). This modelling allows us to characterize better the new types of misallocations. We …nd that the maximum value of the resources wasted by the US economy happened in the years 1980-81, after the 2nd oil shock. In these years, we estimate the excess resources that are allocated for every speci…c distorting channel: i) The US commercial banks spent additional resources of around 2% of GDP; ii) For the purpose of the firm foating time were used between 2.4% and 4.1% of GDP); and iii) For the household transaction time were allocated between 3.1% and 4.5 % of GDP. The Bailey triangle under the demand for the monetary base schedule represented around 1% of GDP, which is consistent with Lucas (2000). We estimate that the US total welfare costs of in‡ation were around 10% of GDP in terms of the consumption goods foregone. The big di¤erence between our results and Lucas (2000) are mainly due to the Harberger triangle in the market for loans (inside money) which makes part of the household transaction time, of the …rm ‡oat labor and of the distortion in the banking industry. This triangle arises due to the widening interest rates spread in the presence of a distorting inflation tax and under a fractionally reserve system. The Harberger triangle can represent 80% of the total welfare costs of inflation while the remaining percentage is split almost equally between the Bailey triangle and the resources used for the bank services. Finally, we formulate several theorems in terms of the optimal nonneutral monetary policy so as to compare with the classical monetary theory.

On the consistency of arbitrary money-demand functions with the Sidrauski and the shopping-time models

This paper investigates which properties money-demand functions have to satisfy to be consistent with multidimensional extensions of Lucasí(2000) versions of the Sidrauski (1967) and the shopping-time models. We also investigate how such classes of models relate to each other regarding the rationalization of money demands. We conclude that money demand functions rationalizable by the shoppingtime model are always rationalizable by the Sidrauski model, but that the converse is not true. The log-log money demand with an interest-rate elasticity greater than or equal to one and the semi-log money demand are counterexamples.

Águas: campo organizacional poder e sistema de informações. O CEIVAP como protótipo da gestão de recursos hídricos no Brasil

O modelo descentralizado, participativo e integrado de gestão de recursos hídricos que se ordena em função das bacias hidrográficas demanda um grande esforço de todos os atores envolvidos na gestão. Para compreendê-lo é essencial considerar os antecedentes históricos, os marcos legais, o arcabouço jurídico e o ferramental tecnológico moderno (sistemas de informações) que definem a representação das esferas governamentais, dos usuários de grande porte e da sociedade civil na gestão. Utilizando a teoria institucional, o conceito de campo organizacional e a tecnologia da informação, considerando sempre o poder como variável central da disputas sociais, este trabalho buscou, interpretando os discursos das entrevistas em profundidade e usando a literatura disponível, a descrição do desenvolvimento e da formação do campo formado em função do tema da gestão das águas. A escolha da teoria institucional permite obter uma visão mais abrangente do estudo das organizações, incorporando temas como valores e legitimação como elementos de sucesso das organizações em um campo. o trabalho conclui que há um campo organizacional da gestão de recursos hídricos nos moldes proposto pela teoria utilizada. Neste campo há questões centrais que dirigem a geração de valores. Este campo se completa com atores periféricos, representantes de discursos ainda não plenamente incorporados, mas que já demandam resposta dos atores centrais. A tecnologia, através dos sistemas de informações, ainda não contribui para qualquer alteração significativa na distribuição de poder no campo.

Escolariedade, salários e empregabilidade: implicações no mercado de empregos do Rio de Janeiro

The high degree of flexibility has been pointed as one of the outstanding characteristics of the Brazilian job market. Employability is being a frequent discussion issue among the professionals of the human resources area. The Human Capital Theory and the contemporary discussion concerning Employability argue the relationship of the educational practice and of the production practice in a capitalist economical-social structure as a whole. The education consequences in the individuals' life are reflected in several ways, direct and indirectly. Our objective is to evaluate, with statistics methods, and in that universe of consequences, the explanatory events of the relationships between education-wage and education¿job. The main reason of this work is to evaluate the relationship between education, wage and Employability from a structural model perspective, seeking to compare and to contrast two effective theories: the one from the human capital and other from the Employability. To make this analysis, a database of individuals that are working at the formal work market in the Rio de Janeiro Metropolitan Area, had been used. The results showed the education importance on the wage level, as well as, on the Employability factor, whose values and highest taxes correspond to the individuals graduated on the university.

Estrutura organizacional do tipo network e a satisfação no trabalho

Muitos historiadores afirmam que estamos iniciando uma nova era, a era do conhecimento, da informação, a era digital. Surgem duas grandes armas estratégicas nesse novo ambiente global, para que as empresas sejam competitivas no século vinte e um: a criatividade e a integração. E muitas empresas estão adotando uma nova estrutura organizacional, a estrutura do tipo network, como solução para a gerência da criatividade e da integração. Essa estrutura não se preocupa com novas maneiras de manipular subordinados em vantagem própria. Ao contrário, ela nos desafia a repensar o básico: nossos valores, atitudes e considerações a respeito de liderança, trabalho e tempo. As estruturas hierárquicas convencionais não proporcionam a agilidade de resposta requerida pelo mercado atualmente, devido à burocracia por trás de todas as atividades. As pessoas especializam-se em pequenas atividades, perdendo o sentido do trabalho e a motivação intrínseca. E uma vez que as pessoas são crescentemente reconhecidas como o capital mais importante de qualquer empreendimento, a desmotivação se toma desastrosa para o futuro de qualquer negócio. A reciprocidade empresa-indivíduo é essencial. Esta dissertação pretende analisar o fator humano nos trabalhos realizados dentro da estrutura de network, traçando-se um paralelo entre as propostas dessa estrutura e as necessidades humanas, demonstrando a relação existente entre a estrutura organizacional da criatividade e da integração e a satisfação no trabalho. Iniciamente, apresenta-se uma revisão bibliográfica, sob três diferentes enfoques. Primeiro, explica-se como as transformações mundiais estão afetando a estratégia das empresas. Depois, mostra-se o impacto da estratégia do século vinte e um dentro da organização. Por fim, focaliza-se o lado psicológico do ser humano, suas necessidades, tais quais a autonomia, a competência e o relacionamento interpessoal, os fatores de satisfação intrínsecos e extrínsecos. Assim, pode-se avaliar o impacto de uma nova estrutura organizacional na motivação dos funcionários. A seguir, apresenta-se o projeto de uma pesquisa-piloto dos fatores de satisfação mais relevantes para as pessoas, confirmando-se a importância dos fatores de satisfação intrínsecos. Mostra-se também que os índices de satisfação são diretamente afetados pelo ambiente empresarial onde atuam, de acordo com seu grau de autonomia. Então, são mostradas as conclusões do trabalho e recomendações práticas para mudanças na estrutura organizacional dentro de uma empresa, seus custos e como elas devem ser administradas no longo prazo.

Growth, structural change and technological capabilities Latin America in a comparative perspective

Countries differ in terms of technological capabilities and complexity of production structures. According to that, countries may follow different development strategies: one based on extracting rents from abundant endowments, such as labor or natural resources, and the other focused on creating rents through intangibles, basically innovation and knowledge accumulation. The present article studies international convergence and divergence, linking structural change with trade and growth through a North South Ricardian model. The analysis focuses on the asymmetries between Latin America and mature and catching up economies. Empirical evidence supports that a shift in the composition of the production structure in favor of R&D intensive sectors allows achieving higher rates of growth in the long term and increases the capacity to respond to demand changes. A virtuous export-led growth requires laggard countries to reduce the technological gap with respect to more advanced ones. Hence, abundance of factor endowments requires to be matched with technological capabilities development for countries to converge in the long term.

An analysis of quit and dismissal determinants between 1988 and 1999 using the bivariate probit model

Excessive labor turnover may be considered, to a great extent, an undesirable feature of a given economy. This follows from considerations such as underinvestment in human capital by firms. Understanding the determinants and the evolution of turnover in a particular labor market is therefore of paramount importance, including policy considerations. The present paper proposes an econometric analysis of turnover in the Brazilian labor market, based on a partial observability bivariate probit model. This model considers the interdependence of decisions taken by workers and firms, helping to elucidate the causes that lead each of them to end an employment relationship. The Employment and Unemployment Survey (PED) conducted by the State System of Data Analysis (SEADE) and by the Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies (DIEESE) provides data at the individual worker level, allowing for the estimation of the joint probabilities of decisions to quit or stay on the job on the worker’s side, and to maintain or fire the employee on the firm’s side, during a given time period. The estimated parameters relate these estimated probabilities to the characteristics of workers, job contracts, and to the potential macroeconomic determinants in different time periods. The results confirm the theoretical prediction that the probability of termination of an employment relationship tends to be smaller as the worker acquires specific skills. The results also show that the establishment of a formal employment relationship reduces the probability of a quit decision by the worker, and also the firm’s firing decision in non-industrial sectors. With regard to the evolution of quit probability over time, the results show that an increase in the unemployment rate inhibits quitting, although this tends to wane as the unemployment rate rises.

Forecasting electricity demand using generalized long memory

This paper studies the electricity hourly load demand in the area covered by a utility situated in the southeast of Brazil. We propose a stochastic model which employs generalized long memory (by means of Gegenbauer processes) to model the seasonal behavior of the load. The model is proposed for sectional data, that is, each hour’s load is studied separately as a single series. This approach avoids modeling the intricate intra-day pattern (load profile) displayed by the load, which varies throughout days of the week and seasons. The forecasting performance of the model is compared with a SARIMA benchmark using the years of 1999 and 2000 as the out-of-sample. The model clearly outperforms the benchmark. We conclude for general long memory in the series.

Forecasting electricity load demand: analysis of the 2001 rationing period in Brazil

This paper studies the electricity load demand behavior during the 2001 rationing period, which was implemented because of the Brazilian energetic crisis. The hourly data refers to a utility situated in the southeast of the country. We use the model proposed by Soares and Souza (2003), making use of generalized long memory to model the seasonal behavior of the load. The rationing period is shown to have imposed a structural break in the series, decreasing the load at about 20%. Even so, the forecast accuracy is decreased only marginally, and the forecasts rapidly readapt to the new situation. The forecast errors from this model also permit verifying the public response to pieces of information released regarding the crisis.