Cabinet composition and assessment of a multiparty presidential system

This doctoral dissertation provides a detailed analysis of the Brazilian cabinet according to the concepts of a multiparty presidential system. Appointing politicians as ministers is one of the most important coalition-building tools and has been widely used by minority presidents. This dissertation will therefore analyze the high-level Brazilian national bureaucracy between 1995 and 2014. It argues that the ministries – or departments – are not equal, and that allied parties therefore take into account the different characteristics of a ministry when demanding positions as a patronage strategy or for use as other kinds of political assets. After reviewing the literature on the theme, followed by a comparative analysis of the Brazilian, Chilean, Mexican, and Guatemalan cabinets, all the Brazilian ministries will be weighed and ranked on a scale that is able to measure their political importance and attractiveness. This rank takes into account variables such as the budgetary power, the ability to spend money according the ministers’ will, the ability to hire new employees, the ministries’ influence over other governmental agents such as companies, agencies, and so on, the ministers’ tenure in office. Finally, a proxy is provided that seeks to identify the normative power a department may hold. All of these characteristics will then be taken into account in considering the representatives’ opinion, thus helping to ascertain whether the cabinet appointment has been coalescent among the several parties that belong to the president’s coalition.

Essays on international finance, default and inflation

This thesis is composed by three papers, each one of them corresponding to one chapter. The first and the second chapters are essays on international finance appraising default and inflation as equilibrium outcomes for crisis time, in particular, for confidence crisis time that leads to speculative attack on the external public debt issued by emerging economies. With this background in mind, welfare effects from adopting common currency (chapter 1) and welfare effects from increasing the degree of economic openness (chapter 2) are analyzed in numerical exercises, based on DSGE framework. Cross-countries results obtained are then presented to be compared with empirical evidence and to help on understanding past policy decisions. Some policy prescriptions are also suggested. In the third chapter we look to the inflation targeting regime applied to emerging economies that are subject to adverse shocks, like the external debt crisis presented in the previous chapters. Based on a more theoretical approach, we appraise how pre commitment framework should be used to coordinate expectations when policymaker announcement has no full credibility and self fulfilling inflation may be possible.

Developing a monitoring and evaluation system for Instituto Palmas: a network of community development banks in Brazil

Bancos comunitários de desenvolvimento no Brasil são instituições únicas que operam de acordo com os princípios da economia solidária em função da inclusão financeira de comunidades carentes. O Instituto Palmas, a instituição que assessora e coordena a rede destes bancos, pediu à Universidade de São Paulo e à Universidade de Columbia em Nova York para desenvolver um conjunto de indicadores que pudesse demonstrar o impacto social e o desempenho institucional dos bancos. Esse relatório apresenta os indicadores, a metodologia utilizada na sua formação, e recomendações para sua utilização. Na medida em que resultados e impacto estão analisados através do uso desses indicadores, a rede dos bancos comunitários e outros interessados terão mais clareza sobre suas funções, seu desempenho, e suas áreas que precisam ser melhoradas para cumprir sua missão – superar a pobreza urbana através da economia solidária.