Brazilian international and inter-state trade flows: an exploratory analysis using the gravity model

Recent efforts toward a world with freer trade, like WTO/GATT or regional Preferential Trade Agreements(PTAs), were put in doubt after McCallum's(1995) finding of a large border effect between US and Canadian provinces. Since then, there has been a great amount of research on this topic employing the gravity equation. This dissertation has two goals. The first goal is to review comprehensively the recent literature about the gravity equation, including its usages, econometric specifications, and the efforts to provide it with microeconomic foundations. The second goal is the estimation of the Brazilian border effect (or 'home-bias trade puzzle') using inter-state and international trade flow data. It is used a pooled cross-section Tobit model. The lowest border effect estimated was 15, which implies that Brazilian states trade among themselves 15 times more than they trade with foreign countries. Further research using industry disaggregated data is needed to qualify the estimated border effect with respect to which part of that effect can be attributed to actual trade costs and which part is the outcome of the endogenous location problem of the firm.

O global e o contextual no aprendizado gerencial de multinacionais: uma perspectiva brasileira

The major purpose of this thesis is to verify, from a Brazilian perspective, how global and contextual issues influence the management learning in Multinationals. The management learning derived from the interaction of holding and sidiaries/colligates of Multinational corporation is supposed to be subject to convergent and divergent forces, the former related to global and standardized organizational practices, and the latter, is seen as a social practice subject to cultural and organizational singularities. A model was constructed to relate the dichotomy between the universality of the management practices and technologies and the particularity of the contexts where they operate, to the dichotomy between the singularities in organization and national level. This model is composed of the international, global, managerial and inter-organizational dimensions related, respectively, to the cultural and political diversity; to the universal forces of practices and values; to the managerial capabilities and resources in the organization, consolidated as best practices and to the interaction between holding and subsidiaries and the resulted learning. The combined result of these dimensions influences the knowledge flow and the learning derived from it. The field research was constituted of five cases of internationalized Brazilian firms, with a solid experience in their management systems. The main subjects of this study were executives and ofessionals/managers who respond to the management development. The data were first collected in the headquarters and complemented with visits to subsidiaries/joint ventures in other countries, in loco or with expatriated people who return to Brazil. The central supposition was validated. So, the management learning ¿ is driven by the global capitalism practices and by the global culture where they are immersed, reproducing a hegemonic vision and a common language (global dimension); ¿ incorporates the more propagated and dominant managerial values, although there are some variations when they are applied in the subsidiaries/joint ventures; is the product of the assimilation of international recognized and planned managerial practices, with the acculturation power, although not completely; is the result mainly of the managerial practice in work; is impacted not only by cross-cultural and managerial factors, but also by the business environment of the firm; is given according to the capabilities and resources in the organization, guiding the form of assimilation of practices and technologies, with global application or not (managerial dimension); ¿ is affected by the cross-cultural diversity involving the countries of the holding and the subsidiaries/joint ventures where the firm is and is given as a reproduction of the political context of the holding and subsidiaries countries (international dimension); ¿ faces aligned concurrent institutional pressures between corporate or global systems, practices of other subsidiaries/joint ventures and local practices; is more difficult to reach when there is not permeability between organizational cultures and identities of a Multinational firm; is affected by how much the relationship process across these unities is self-referenced; is facilitated by the construction and improvement of the knowledge network (interorganizational dimension). Finally some contributions of this study are exposed, including extensions of the proposed model and suggestions, recommendations for future research.

Um estudo sobre a inter-relação dos mercados de ações e títulos públicos sob a ótica da liquidez e volatilidade

Na última década, a economia brasileira apresentou-se estável adquirindo maior credibilidade mundial. Dentre as opções de investimento, estão os mercados de ações e de títulos públicos. O portfolio de investimento dos agentes é determinado de acordo com os retornos dos ativos e/ou aversão ao risco, e a diversificação é importante para mitigar risco. Dessa forma, o objetivo principal do presente trabalho é estudar a inter-relação entre os mercados de títulos públicos e ações, avaliando aspectos de liquidez e quais variáveis representariam melhor esta relação, verificando também como respondem a um choque (surpresa econômica), pois a percepção de alteração do cenário econômico, ou variações de fluxo financeiro, pode alterar/inverter as relações entre esses mercados. Para isso, estimou-se modelos de vetores auto-regressivos - VAR, com variáveis de retorno, volatilidade e volume negociado para cada um dos mercados em combinações diferentes das variáveis representativas, visando encontrar o(s) modelo(s) mais descritivo(s) das inter-relações entre os mercados, dado a amostra utilizada, para aplicar a dummy de surpresa econômica. Em estudo semelhante Chordia, Sarkar e Subrahmanyam (2005) concluiram que choques de liquidez e volatilidade são positivamente correlacionado nos mercados de ações e títulos públicos em horizontes diários, indicando que os choques de liquidez e volatilidade são muitas vezes de natureza sistêmica. O mesmo não foi observado para a proxy de liquidez utilizada na amostra brasileira. Um resultado interessante a ser ressaltado deve-se as séries SMLL11 (índice Small Caps) e IDkAs (índice de duração constante ANBIMA) não possuírem relação de causalidade de Granger com as demais séries, mas os retornos dos IDkAs Granger causam os retornos do índice SMLL11. Por fim, o choque de surpresa econômica não se mostra explicativo sobre qualquer alteração nas inter-relações entre os mercados de títulos públicos e ações.

Firms?: heterogeneity, organizations, power and trade

This paper develops a theory which investigates the two-way relationship between the internaI organization of the firm and market competition.We introduce heterogenous firms with internal hierarchies in a Knlgman (1980) monopolistic competition model of trade. The model simultanously determines firms' organizational choices anel heterogeneity across firms in size and proeluctivity.Ve show that intenlational trade, market size and the toughness of competition in international markets incluce a power struggle in firms which eventually leads to a reorganization of firms towards more decentralized corporate hierarchies.We show further that trade triggers produetivity growth through inter-firm reallocations towards more produetive firms in whieh CEOs have power in firms. At the same time, however trade- induced organizational changes towards fiattened corporate hierarchies lead to a softening of lnternat.ional competition which may contribute a eountervailing negative effect on seetoral productivity.