Rational expectations and the service of public debt: a recursive approach

This paper uses dynamic programming to study the time consistency of optimal macroeconomic policy in economies with recurring public deficits. To this end, a general equilibrium recursive model introduced in Chang (1998) is extended to include govemment bonds and production. The original mode! presents a Sidrauski economy with money and transfers only, implying that the need for govemment fmancing through the inflation tax is minimal. The extended model introduces govemment expenditures and a deficit-financing scheme, analyzing the SargentWallace (1981) problem: recurring deficits may lead the govemment to default on part of its public debt through inflation. The methodology allows for the computation of the set of alI sustainable stabilization plans even when the govemment cannot pre-commit to an optimal inflation path. This is done through value function iterations, which can be done on a computeI. The parameters of the extended model are calibrated with Brazilian data, using as case study three Brazilian stabilization attempts: the Cruzado (1986), Collor (1990) and the Real (1994) plans. The calibration of the parameters of the extended model is straightforward, but its numerical solution proves unfeasible due to a dimensionality problem in the algorithm arising from limitations of available computer technology. However, a numerical solution using the original algorithm and some calibrated parameters is obtained. Results indicate that in the absence of govemment bonds or production only the Real Plan is sustainable in the long run. The numerical solution of the extended algorithm is left for future research.

Fusões, aquisições estratégicas, e capacidades tecnológicas inovadoras: evidências da indústria de telecomunicações multinacional

This dissertation studies the innovative technological capabilities available in the merger and acquisitions processes and the relationship between these processes with the technological capabilities accumulation to get convergence of technology and services. This study was examined in fourteen companies of the telecommunications industry during 2002 to 2007. Starting on 1990 there were from one end a profusion of studies on the technological capabilities as source of competitive advantages; from another end there are studies on merger and acquisitions with the objective to evaluate the motivations derived from technological factors and stimulation to the competition and the opening of the market. However few of the empirical studies of long stated period that examine the correlation of these events in the industry of telecommunications under the optics of the technological qualification in the level of the companies and for the strategic perspective of enterprise based on the dynamics abilities. An analytical framework already available in the literature was used to describe the contribution of the merger and acquisitions processes for the accumulation of innovative technological capabilities in the studied companies. However the framework was adapted specifically for the industry of Telecommunications. This dissertation also studies the importance of the strategic merger and acquisitions as organizational form in the complementation of technological capability for external sources. Such empirical evidences had been collected from information and data bases published for the own companies who had been examined in this dissertation. Regarding the results, it was found that: 1. In terms of participation with ingress technological capabilities in strategic merger and acquisitions the equipment manufacturers had entered with 71% to 55 of the technological capabilities and the service operator company had entered with 61% to 71 technological capabilities. 2. In terms of implications of the merger and acquisitions for the configuration of resultant technologic capabilities, it was found that the equipment manufacturers had increased 31% the ratio of convergence of technology and the operators of services had increased 4% the ratio for the change in the organizational structure. 3. Regarding the accumulation technological capability to obtain convergence of technology and services was verified the increase these technological capabilities after the merger and acquisitions process in the companies studied. Considering the limitation of this study, the evidences found in this dissertation suggest that the companies use the processes of strategic merger and acquisitions to search for external complementation of their knowledge base to compete in the globalization market. The result demonstrates that this movement has implied in an alteration and accumulation of capability from organization on innovative technological activities regarding the convergence of technology and services.

Unidades técnico-científicas da Polícia Federal: um estudo de caso do processo de descentralização da perícia criminal federal

Este estudo buscou identificar e analisar como foi planejado e executado o processo de descentralização da perícia criminal federal, bem assim, identificar a razão para os desvios havidos entre o planejamento e a implementação e as consequências advindas. Uma revisão da teoria precedeu a análise dos dados, obtidos através de pesquisa de campo constituída por oito entrevistas, sendo cinco entre os planejadores e executores do processo de descentralização, e três com os responsáveis por unidades descentralizadas. O planejamento do processo de descentralização foi realizado por equipes intermediárias do escalão dirigente do Departamento de Polícia Federal. Conforme levantamento empreendido por esses idealizadores, constatou-se uma alta demanda por assistência pericial em investigações conduzidas em cidades afastadas das capitais dos estados, onde residia o único centro forense disponível em cada unidade da federação. A distância do local da demanda para as capitais e a limitada capacidade de atendimento das unidades estaduais prevenia o atendimento tempestivo das requisições, situação que, por vezes, comprometia toda a eficácia da investigação policial. A par dessas constatações e tendo sido identificadas as principais especialidades requeridas, o volume de solicitações, a infraestrutura local disponível e outras características associadas à demanda e aos seus locais de origem, foram delimitados requisitos para a identificação de cidades que receberiam unidades técnico-científicas e delimitação das características dessas unidades. Os parâmetros fixados para dimensionar as unidades descentralizadas, como requisitos de infraestrutura, recursos humanos e equipamentos, acabaram por ser flexibilizados durante o processo de implementação devido à insuficiência de recursos financeiros para a implementação concebida. Como resultado, houve instalação de unidades incompletas; com corpo técnico carente das expertises requeridas; com infraestrutura física inadequada; em localidades não previstas; sem os laboratórios e equipamentos necessários. Os empecilhos indicados sinalizam que o plano foi estabelecido sem a análise precisa das forças e fraquezas, oportunidades e desafios que impactariam a sua execução. A ausência do envolvimento da alta administração da Polícia Federal pode explicar parte das deficiências encontradas no processo. Embora a descentralização tenha melhorado as condições para a atuação das equipes de investigação, diversas deficiências ainda precisam ser suprimidas para garantir melhor efetividade da assistência da perícia. Conclui-se pela necessidade de uma completa revisão do processo de descentralização da estrutura pericial, a fim de se identificar os ajustes necessários para o aprimoramento das condições de operação das unidades técnico-científicas descentralizadas.