2 resultados para Identification test AUDIT
em Repositório digital da Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV
Resumo:
This paper uses a unique dataset of political corruption, constructed from municipal audit reports obtained from Brazil’s randomized anti-corruption program, to test whether reelection incentives affect the level of rent extraction of incumbent politicians. In order to identify reelection incentives, we use the existence of a term limit in Brazil’s municipal elections. We find that in municipalities where mayors are in their second and final term, there is significantly more corruption compared to similar municipalities where mayors are in their first-term. In particular, in municipalities with second-term mayors there is, on average, R$188,431 more diversion of resources and the incidence of irregularities is 23% higher. We also find more pronounced effects where the costs of rent-extraction are lower (municipalities without media and judicial presence), and the density of pivotal voters is higher (more political competition). Finally, we show that first-term mayors, while less corrupt, have a larger incidence of poor administration suggesting that there may exist a trade-off between corruption and quality in public good provision.
Resumo:
This paper develops a general method for constructing similar tests based on the conditional distribution of nonpivotal statistics in a simultaneous equations model with normal errors and known reducedform covariance matrix. The test based on the likelihood ratio statistic is particularly simple and has good power properties. When identification is strong, the power curve of this conditional likelihood ratio test is essentially equal to the power envelope for similar tests. Monte Carlo simulations also suggest that this test dominates the Anderson- Rubin test and the score test. Dropping the restrictive assumption of disturbances normally distributed with known covariance matrix, approximate conditional tests are found that behave well in small samples even when identification is weak.