An overview of some historical brazilian macroeconomic series and some open questions

This paper presents an overview of the Brazilian macroeconomy by analyzing the evolution of some specific time series. The presentation is made through a sequence of graphs. Several remarkable historical points and open questions come up in the data. These include, among others, the drop in output growth as of 1980, the clear shift from investments to government current expenditures which started in the beginning of the 80s, the notable way how money, prices and exchange rate correlate in an environment of permanently high inflation, the historical coexistence of high rates of growth and high rates of inflation, as well as the drastic increase of the velocity of circulation of money between the 70s and the mid-90s. It is also shown that, although net external liabilities have increased substantially in current dollars after the Real Plan, its ratio with respect to exports in 2004 is practically the same as the one existing in 1986; and that residents in Brazil, in average, owed two more months of their final income (GNP) to abroad between 1995-2004 than they did between 1990 and 1994. Variance decompositions show that money has been important to explain prices, but not output (GDP).

Fundamentos epistemológicos da museologia: uma proposta ao problema curricular

O objetivo deste trabalho é responder as perguntas: o que é museologia, o que a diferencia dos outros saberes, isto é, quais são os seus estatutos epistemológicos, porque a Museologia assume no Brasil aspecto predominantemente técnico o que afasta, quase sempre seus profissionais dos postos de comando e/ou decisão na área que lhe é afeta. O tema educacional está imbricado na problemática epistemológica. O tema é abordado através de diferentes aspectos e sucessivas visões: - como o Curso de Museus se inseriu no contexto histórico que lhe deu origem, a longa proposta ideológica do então único Curso de Museus do país, o desempenho deste mesmo curso de sua fundação até os dias de hoje, duas divisões de seus currículos uma quanto a sua coerência ou não com cada momento educacional e outra quanto aos conteúdos. O museu sua gênese e desempenho mundial até hoje. Estas primeiras aproximações nos levaram a constatar faltar à Museologia a evidenciação de seus estatutos epistemológicos, princípios e categorias, que a mostrasse como um saber diferenciado. Aquelas múltiplas visões nos permitiram chegar aos conceitos adequados, na área, para nosso trabalho. Passamos a ordenar o assunto por campos e destes extraímos princípios museológicos e reconhecemos estes como relacionados com a Antropologia Filosófica. Levantamos as Categorias de Antropologia Filosófica contidas nas obras de Jolif e conectamos aqueles "Princípios Museológicos" com estas categorias. Passamos, assim, a ter uma correlação Museologia/ Antropologia Filosófica que ~ permite a Museologia desenvolver-se estruturadamente passando a ter "background" para sustentar uma proposta de ensino universitário e de formação superior para o profissional de museologia e para consequentemente sustentar a pesquisa, a reflexão e a decisão nas lides e no desenvolvi menta contínuo do saber diferenciado: Museologia.

História da psicologia e psicologia histórica: seus critérios e suas diferenças

Este trabalho diferencia a História da Psicologia da Psicologia Histórica, mostrando que a História da Psicologia se ateve ao estudo da evolução de uma ciência e, assim sendo, operou a nível conceitual, tendo considerado importantes para melhor compreensão de seu objeto de estudo - o homem - conceitos referentes à leis fisiológicas e psicológicas. As raízes desses conceitos encontram-se em movimentos relacionados às ciências naturais - conceitos fisiológicos, principalmente sobre os reflexos e a localização cerebral, conceitos biológicos, como os de evolução e adaptação, interesse pela pesquisa, surgimento de laboratórios e uma abordagem do psiquismo - e à filosofia - empirismo crítico, associacionismo e materialismo científico. Fundamentalmente opera com o princípio da permanência, ou seja, com o princípio que sustenta a permanência da natureza humana ao longo da História. Influenciados pelos estudos da sociologia e da antropologia, os psicólogos começaram a rever seus conceitos e, dessa revisão, surgiu, então, uma nova visão do homem; uma compreensão de que ele é um ser cuja realidade é essencialmente histórica e cuja conduta produz e reflete mudanças no ambiente social em que ele vive. Surge, a partir dessa nova visão, a Psicologia Histórica, operando não a nível conceitual, como a História da Psicologia, mas a nivel factual. Trabalha não com uma natureza humana essencialmente estável, mas com um ser humano que se modifica ao longo da História, mostrando características novas e novas espécies de comportamento.

O impacto das diferenças culturais nas fusões e aquisições

A cultura é um conceito amplo e que traz consigo contextos históricos, valores e percepções partilhadas que, no âmbito social, influenciam as interações coletivas e institucionais. Desta forma, operações de fusão e aquisição, por mais que tenham particularmente uma essência econômica em sua origem, são diretamente impactadas por questões culturais, tendo em vista que estas são realizadas por pessoas, que aprendem a interagir e se expressar através de suas culturas. Este trabalho se propõe a fazer um levantamento teórico de como os autores entendem a influência da cultura nas operações de fusões e aquisições, de acordo com as bases teóricas da psicologia, antropologia e sociologia, propiciando ou limitando o alcance dos resultados desejados. Para compreender o cenário em que o conceito de cultura é investigado, também fizemos um levantamento das principais diferenças culturais levantadas em operações de fusão e aquisição, e que foram analisadas à luz dos conceitos de cultura abordados neste trabalho. Constatamos que, por não haver uma preocupação em se definir corretamente o objeto de pesquisa de cultura, os resultados acerca desta influência permanecem confusos e contraditórios. Com isso, torna-se difícil endereçar corretamente as perspectivas de ação no campo individual e coletivo.

An overview of some historical Brazilian macroeconomic series and some open questions

This paper presents an overview of the Brazilian macroeconomy by analyzing the evolution of some specific time series. The presentation is made through a sequence of graphs. Several remarkable historical points and open questions come up in the data. These include, among others, the drop in output growth as of 1980, the clear shift from investments to government current expenditures which started in the beginning of the 80s, the notable way how money, prices and exchange rate correlate in an environment of permanently high inHation, the historical coexistence of high rates of growth and high rates of inHation, as well as the drastic increase of the velocity of circulation of money between the 70s and the mid-90s. It is also shown that, although net external liabilities have increased substantially in current dollars after the Real Plan, its ratio with respect to exports in 2004 is practically the same as the one existing in 1986; and that residents in Brazil, in average, owed two more months of their final income (GNP) to abroad between 1995-2004 than they did between 1990 and 1994. Variance decompositions show that money has been important to explain prices, but not output (GDP).

Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

Making decisions in the absence of clear facts: a historical perspective

Recently, a claim has been made that executive decisions makers, far from being fact collectors, are actually fact users and integrators. As such, the claim continues, executive decision makers need help in understanding how to interpret facts, as well as guidance in making decisions in the absence of clear facts. This report justifies this claim against the backdrop of the modern history of decision making, from 1956 to the present. The historical excursion serves to amplify and clarify the claim, as well as to develop a theoretical framework for making decisions in the absence of clear facts. Two essential issues are identified that impact upon decision making in the absence of clear facts, as well criteria for decision making effectiveness under such circumstances. Methodological requirements and practical objectives round off the theoretical framework. The historical analysis enables the identification of one particular established methodology as claiming to meet the methodological requirements of the theoretical framework. Since the methodology has yet to be tried on information-poor situations, a further project is proposed that will test its validity.

Developmental class coalitions: historical experiences and prospects

Este artigo discute o conceito de coalizões de classe como uma alternativa parcial à luta de classes na compreensão das sociedades capitalistas; define duas coalizões de classes básicas - a desenvolvimentista e a liberal; apresenta brevemente três coalizões de classe desenvolvimentistas paradigmáticas - a mercantilista, a bismarckiana, e a social-democrata (ou dos anos dourados do capitalismo); e usa esse arcabouço teórico para entender o capitalismo contemporâneo nos anos pós neoliberais - os anos que se seguem a crise financeira global de 2008

The BRICS: some historical experiences, growth challenges and opportunities

The acronym BRICS was a fad among the media and global investors. Now, the acronym sounds passé. However, the group of countries remains important, from both political and economic reasons. They have a large aggregate size, 28% of the global GDP and 42% of the world’s population, high growth potential due to the current significant misallocation of resources and relatively low stock of human capital, structural transformation is in progress and one of them, China, is taking steps to become a global power and a challenger to the US dominance. This paper provides a brief overview of the five economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. We focus on some aspects of their history, the Chinese initiatives in international finance and geopolitical strategic moves, their growth experience and structural transformation over the last 35 years, trade and investment integration into the global economy and among themselves, the growth challenges faced by their economies and the potential gains to the Brazilian economy from a stronger integration with the other BRICS. In association with its efforts to be a global power, China aims to become a major player in global finance and to achieve the status of global currency for the renminbi, which would be the first currency of an emerging economy to attain such position. Despite the similarities, the BRICS encompass very diverse economies. In the recent decades, China and India showed stellar growth rates. On the other hand, Brazil, Russia and South Africa have expanded just in line with global output growth with the Russian economy exhibiting high volatility. China is by far the largest economy, and South Africa the smallest, the only BRICS economy with a GDP lower than US$ 1 trillion. Russia abandoned communism almost 25 years ago, but reversed many of the privatizations of 90’s. China is still ruled by communism, but has a vibrant private sector and recently has officially declared market forces to play a dominant role in its economy. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are global natural resources powerhouses and commodity exporters while China and India are large commodity importers. Brazil is relatively closed to international trade of goods and services, in marked contrast to the other four economies. Brazil, India and South Africa are dependent on external capital flows whereas China and Russia are capital exporters. India and South Africa have younger populations and a large portion living below the poverty line. Despite its extraordinary growth experience that lifted many millions from poverty, China still has 28% of its population classified as poor. Russia and China have much older populations and one of their challenges is to deal with the effects of a declining labor force in the near future. India, China and South Africa face a long way to urbanization, while Brazil and Russia are already urbanized countries. China is an industrial economy but its primary sector still absorbs a large pool of workers. India is not, but the primary sector employs also a large share of the labor force. China’s aggregate demand structure is biased towards investment that has been driving its expansion. Brazil and South Africa have an aggregate demand structure similar to the developed economies, with private consumption accounting for approximately 70%. The same similarity applies to the supply side, as in both economies the share of services nears 70%. The development problem is a productivity problem, so microeconomic reforms are badly needed to foster long-term growth of the BRICS economies since they have lost steam due a variety of factors, but fundamentally due to slower total factor productivity growth. China and India are implementing ambitious reform programs, while Brazil is dealing with macroeconomic disequilibria. Russia and South Africa remain mute about structural reforms. There are some potential benefits to Brazil to be extracted from a greater economic integration with the BRICS, particularly in natural resources intensive industries and services. Necessary conditions to the materialization of those gains are the removal of the several sources of resource misallocation and strong investment in human capital.