Os fundamentos do investment grade brasileiro

Nos últimos anos temos assistido um número cada vez maior de países sendo avaliados pelas principais agências de risco de crédito no que tange às suas condições estruturais, conjunturais políticas. Em um mundo onde financiamento de dívidas um negócio que envolve níveis de risco consideráveis, em que episódios de default não são eventos muito raros, ter uma boa avaliação entre as agências de risco pode representar importante marca de qualidade, útil para reduzir incerteza dos investidores. Em 2008 vimos Brasil obter tão sonhado Investment Grade por parte das agencias de risco. Agora, dado crise de crédito que assolou o mundo em setembro do ano passado, que queremos entender melhor através deste trabalho é se Brasil tinha os fundamentos necessários para ter obtido este rating. Para isso, iremos analisar quais as variáveis que impactam as chances de os países alcançarem uma mudança no grau de risco através do modelo probit pretendemos estimar qual probabilidade do Brasil manter este rating nos próximos anos.

Changes in test scores distribution for students of the fourth grade in Brazil: a relative distribution analysis for the years 1997 to 2005

To assess the quality of school education, much of educational research is concerned with comparisons of test scores means or medians. In this paper, we shift this focus and explore test scores data by addressing some often neglected questions. In the case of Brazil, the mean of test scores in Math for students of the fourth grade has declined approximately 0,2 standard deviation in the late 1990s. But what about changes in the distribution of scores? It is unclear whether the decline was caused by deterioration in student performance in upper and/or lower tails of the distribution. To answer this question, we propose the use of the relative distribution method developed by Handcock and Morris (1999). The advantage of this methodology is that it compares two distributions of test scores data through a single distribution and synthesizes all the differences between them. Moreover, it is possible to decompose the total difference between two distributions in a level effect (changes in median) and shape effect (changes in shape of the distribution). We find that the decline of average-test scores is mainly caused by a worsening in the position of all students throughout the distribution of scores and is not only specific to any quantile of distribution.

Análise comparada da grade curricular do curso de formação da Guarda Civil Metropolitana de São Paulo

Este trabalho tem como objetivo estudar a grade curricular do curso de formação da Guarda Civil Metropolitana de São Paulo, comparativamente aos cursos realizados pelas Polícias Militares dos estados de Santa Catarina, Rio de Janeiro e Paraná. A comparação destas quatro grades curriculares frente à proposta elaborada pela Secretaria Nacional de Segurança Pública busca identificar se as matérias apresentadas nos cursos estão voltadas à formação de agentes segundo os princípios de policiamento comunitário e preventivo. Este modelo de atuação tem sido estudado e implementado por diferentes forças policiais em todo mundo como resposta ao crescimento da criminalidade, verificado especialmente a partir da década de 70.

Performance of incentive contracts in highway PPP projects in Brazil

Private-Public Partnerships (P.P.P.) is a new contractual model institutionalized in 2004 that could be used to remedy to the infrastructure deficit in Brazil. In a context of a principal and agent relation, the public partner goal is to give incentives to the private partner in the contract so that their interests are aligned. This qualitative research presents the findings of an empirical study examining the performance of incentive PPP contracts in Brazil in the highway sector. The goal is to explain how the contracting parties can align their interests in an environment of asymmetric information. Literature identified the factors that can influence PPP design and efficient incentive contracts. The study assesses the contribution of these factors in the building of PPP contracts by focusing on the case of the first and only PPP signed in the highway sector in Brazil which is the MG-050. The first step is to describe the condition of the highway network and the level of compliance of the private partner with the contract PPP MG-050. The second step is to explain the performance of the private partner and conclude if the interests of both partners were aligned in contractual aspects. On the basis of these findings and the analysis of the contract, the study formulates suggestions to improve the draft of PPP contracts from the perspective of the incentive theory of contracts.