On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century

Lucas (1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost of business cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computing welfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming from business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major differences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values -β=0.985, and ∅=5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% - the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business- cycle fluctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same figures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century

Lucas(1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost of business cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computing welfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming from business-cycle uctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major diferences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values = 0:985, and = 5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business-cycle uctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same gures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century and beyond

The main objective of this paper is to propose a novel setup that allows estimating separately the welfare costs of the uncertainty stemming from business-cycle uctuations and from economic-growth variation, when the two types of shocks associated with them (respectively,transitory and permanent shocks) hit consumption simultaneously. Separating these welfare costs requires dealing with degenerate bivariate distributions. Levis Continuity Theorem and the Disintegration Theorem allow us to adequately de ne the one-dimensional limiting marginal distributions. Under Normality, we show that the parameters of the original marginal distributions are not afected, providing the means for calculating separately the welfare costs of business-cycle uctuations and of economic-growth variation. Our empirical results show that, if we consider only transitory shocks, the welfare cost of business cycles is much smaller than previously thought. Indeed, we found it to be negative - -0:03% of per-capita consumption! On the other hand, we found that the welfare cost of economic-growth variation is relatively large. Our estimate for reasonable preference-parameter values shows that it is 0:71% of consumption US$ 208:98 per person, per year.

On the welfare costs of business cycles in the 20th century

Lucas (1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research, that the welfare cost of business cycles are relatively small. Using standard assumptions on preferences and a reasonable reduced form for consumption, we computed these welfare costs for the pre- and post-WWII era, using three alternative trend-cycle decomposition methods. The post-WWII period is very era this basic result is dramatically altered. For the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition, and reasonable preference parameter and discount values, we get a compensation of about 5% of consumption, which is by all means a sizable welfare cost (about US$ 1,000.00 a year).

Development, progress and economic growth

Progress was an idea of the 18th century; development, a project of the 20th century that continues into the 21st century. Progress was associated with the advance of reason, development with the fulfillment of the five political objectives that modern societies set for themselves: security, freedom, economic well-being, social justice and protection of the environment. Today we can view progress and development as equivalent. Both were products of the capitalist revolution, and of the economic development that began with it. Economic development or growth, in its turn, is the process of capital accumulation with the incorporation of technical progress that, mainly through productive sophistication and the increase of the value of labor, increases wages and improves standards of living. The five objectives that define development, as well as the three social instances existing in society change in an interdependent way.

Public policies impacts on Latin American labor structures, preparing for integration

One of the Main Subjects to Be Discussed, in Order to Adjust Latin American Economies to a Regional Integration Network, as Imposed By Mercosul or Other Economic Common Markets, is Related to the Employment and Other Labor Markets Public Policies. the Question to Be Posed Is: Having in Mind the Characteristics of Different Labor Markets and Labor Forces, What are the Impacts of Governmental Measures Presented in the Diverse Economic Conditions of Those Countries. Having in Mind These Impacts, This Paper Aims to Examine the Requisites to Adjust the Labor Structure Standards of Latin American Countries and What Would Be the Reforms to Be Performed By These Countries in Order to Prepare These Markets and Labor Forces to Adapt to Regional Integration Networks Represented By Mercosul, Alca or Other Common Markets. There are Evaluated the Impacts of the Globalization Process, Economic Stabilization and Reform Policies Undertaken By Some Selected Latin American Countries Since the Eighties on the Labor Structure Standards, Considering the Specific Adjustment Measures to Cope With the Negative Effects of These Policies. Next, Some Cases of Europe Union (Eu) Countries Measures to Prepare to Integration is Examined, in Order to Provide Some Elements to Better Understand the Possibilities to Handle With the Extensive Changes in External Conditions. in Sequence Some Statistical Indicatives of the Impacts of These Measures on the Occupational Structuring are Analyzed For a Group of Selected Latin American and Eu Countries.

Discursos e a construção do "real": um estudo do processo de formação e institucionalização do campo da biotecnologia

Comprehension of the processes of formation of new organizational fields is the main objective that stimulated the theoretical reflection and empirical research that I present in this paper. My intention here is to uphold the potential for the application of seemingly dichotomous perspectives in terms of the objectivity/subjectivity dimension in the comprehension of the objective in question. The contribution of Foucault, with his concept of discourse, is linked to the proposal of critical constructivism represented by Latour and studies of science and technology. Juxtaposing these perspectives, I examined the dynamics of the biotechnological field on the basis of the dialectic of movements of demarcation/circularity, which is basically a simultaneous movement of (dis)construction of the boundaries of a field. The dialectic of demarcation/circularity is made up of the set of relations established between heterogeneous elements ¿ institutions, economic and social processes, behavioral patterns, systems of norms, techniques, types of classification, forms of characterization, in other words it finds ways of emerging in the course of discursive formations. This theoretical proposal ¿ which incorporates an overlooked dimension in institutional analysis, especially in organization studies (power) ¿ has the advantage of contributing to enhancing comprehension of the dynamics of institutionalization. By proposing that the institutional processes arise within discursive fields, the argument put forward is that such processes contribute to the productivity of the power relations in these fields. In empirical terms, I conducted a descriptive and exploratory research directed at the biotechnology sector. The research was based on a historical perspective, since the analysis spans the period from the origins of genetic science (beginning of the 20th century) through to recent developments in biotechnology in the USA (beginning of the 21st century). The USA was chosen as the locus of research, principally due to the fact that structuring of the field of biotechnology originated in that country, subsequently spreading to other countries around the world. Starting from this theoretical and methodological framework, three discursive formations are highlighted: organization, information and network. Each of the discursive formations is characterized by a dominant set of discourses that prepare the ground for the appearance and (trans)formation of the focus-objects under analysis. In this process, organizations appear in at least two ways: as boundary-organizations ¿ which are important for understanding the movement of the approximation of different discursive domains ¿ and as new organizations, which accompany the (trans)formation of new fields, whereby prevailing discourses materialize at a given historical moment and contribute to breathe life into new discourses, which in turn spark off new power relations. Among the conclusions of this work, I would highlight the following: questioning the 'organizational' dimension of the fields; the relationship revealed not only between the discourses and the institutionalized practices, but also with the process of construction of legitimacy; and the redefinition of the concept of organizations, based on new conceptions relating to the limits of the topic, the objectivity/subjectivity, and space/time dichotomy.

Controle social exercido através da denúncia no âmbito do TCE-RJ

The crisis that affected the capitalist states during the last decade of the 20th century, put an end to the period of greatest expansion of the state, demanding alterations that brought, especially in economic terms, the ideals of the liberal state. The main goal of these changes was to optimize the administration of the public service by introducing into it more efficiency, transparency, and morality because the state had shown to be incapable of attending the demands of the society and its way of doing was inefficient and did not reach out to the public interest. In Brazil, like in other part of the world, recent scandals of corruption and misuse of public funds put in doubt the efficiency of the financial control system. Like any other political system Brazil has a complex set of external and internal control, institutions that work to prevent misuse of public funds and identify responsibilities if bad use occurred. All these elements highlight the mechanisms of control of the public administration, which came to be seen as essential instruments for the improvement of the management of the public resources, targeting the collective interest. Therefore, along with the traditional mechanisms of power suppression, such as the system of checks and balances, social control arises. This, when used together with the monitoring exercised by public inspection agencies, is defined as horizontal accountability activated by civil society, in which citizens and institutions gather efforts in order to promote a more effective charge of responsibility from public agents and politicians in case of misconducts. This study aimed to identify the opportunities and limitations of social control exercised by the complaint under the TCE-RJ. The results point to the need to develop measures to guarantee the anonymity of denouncers, to simplify the forms of access the TCE-RJ and to improve information spread to the citizen.

As duas fases da história e as fases do capitalismo

The capitalist revolution was such a major economic, social and political transformation that that we can see history divided into two phases: ancient and modern times or pre-capitalism and capitalism. While ancient societies change slowly, modern societies change fast as they, for the first time, experience economic development. Taking the more developed countries as reference, capitalism itself may be seen as divided in three phases: commercial capitalism that marked the transition, classical or bourgeois capitalism, and professionals’ or knowledge capitalism. The later, that is dominant since the beginning of the 20th century, may be divided in two phases: the fordist one and the 30 neoliberal years of capitalism (1979-2008).

Desenhando um paraíso tropical: a construção do Rio de Janeiro como um destino turístico

As primeiras imagens (gráficas ou narrativas) que circularam no exterior sobre o Rio de Janeiro. O complexo processo de produção em série da imagem, envolvendo vários profissionais que muitas vezes trabalhavam a distância. As possibilidades econômicas de uma cidade a ser construída, e o interesse de imigrantes aventureiros e empreendedores. A cidade que os primeiros guias para viajantes pretendiam mostrar. A modernização da urbe, voltada para o olhar internacional. A construção da identidade nacional pela música, dança e a indústria do entretenimento. A identificação do carioca com os estereótipos que lhe foram concedidos.A perpetuação dos ícones da cidade. Este trabalho perpassa várias categorias temáticas, buscando revelar o processo de construção da cidade do Rio de Janeiro enquanto um destino turístico. Um paraíso tropical a ser conhecido.

O desenvolvimento constitucional da pena de morte nos Estados Unidos

Regulamentada desde as legislações mais arcaicas, como o Código de Hamurabi na Babilônia de 4.000 a.C., a pena de morte é um dos institutos mais antigos da humanidade. É também um dos temas mais controvertidos do Direito, cerne de debates que se intensificam na medida na medida em que os direitos humanos são universalizados, principalmente em meados do século XX. Diante disso, a audaciosa manutenção da pena de morte no sistema jurídico norte-americano, o último reduto do instituto no mundo ocidental, é o resultado de longo e árduo processo de desenvolvimento constitucional, orientado principalmente pelos constantes avanços da jurisprudência da Suprema Corte dos Estados Unidos sobre a pena capital. O presente trabalho tem como escopo apresentar o histórico de tais decisões, bem como fundamentos de cunho criminológico, moral, filosófico e econômico aplicáveis à sistemática da pena de morte, expondo ainda dados sobre a aplicação da pena capital e perspectivas para o futuro da sanção nos Estados Unidos.