Estratégias de combate a inflação: âncora cambial versus âncora monetária

Nós investigamos conceito de âncora nominal de uma economia aberta analisamos comportamento dinâmico de algumas variáveis econômicas importantes tais como inflação desemprego taxa real de câmbio durante processo de desinflação. Utilizando uma versão do Modelo Mundell-Fleming onde inércia introduzida através de expectativas adaptativas nós confrontamos estabilização baseada na taxa de câmbio(âncora cambial) com àquela baseada no controle de algum agregado monetário(âncora monetária). Nós mostramos que embora âncora cambial possua um efeito inicial expansionista sobre nível de atividade econômica, oposto ocorrendo com âncora monetária, recessão necessária para derrubar inflação independe da âncora nominal adotada, concluindo que estratégia anti-inflacionária ótima depende das preferências intertemporais dos policy-makers isto é, de como eles desejam distribuir os custos da estabilização ao longo do tempo de modo maximizar bem-estar social.

Hope, risk perception and propensity to indebtedness

Hope is an important construct in marketing, once it is an antecedent of important marketing variables, such as trust, expectation and satisfaction (MacInnis & de Mello, 2005, Almeida, Mazzon & Botelho, 2007). Specifically, the literature suggests that hope can play an important influence on risk perception (Almeida, 2010, Almeida et al., 2007, Fleming, 2008, MacInnis & de Mello, 2005) and propensity to indebtedness (Fleming, 2008). Thus, this thesis aims to investigate the relations among hope, risk perception related to purchasing and consumption and propensity to indebtedness, by reviewing the existing literature and conducting two empirical researches. The first of them is a laboratory experiment, which accessed hope and risk perception of getting a mortgage loan. The second is a survey, investigating university students’ propensity to get indebted to pay for their university tuition, analyzed through the method of Structural Equations Modeling (SEM). These studies found that hope seems to play an important role on propensity to indebtedness, as higher levels of hope predicted an increase in the propensity to accept the mortgage loan, independent of actual risks, and an increase in the propensity of college students to get indebted to pay for their studies. In addition, the first study suggests that hope may lead to a decrease in risk perception, which, however, has not been confirmed by the second study. Finally, this research offers some methodological contributions, due to the fact that it is the first study using an experimental method to study hope in Brazil and, worldwide, it is the first study investigating the relation among hope, risk perception and propensity to indebtedness, which proved to be important influences in consumer behavior