Hysteresis e o comércio exterior de produtos industrializados brasileiros

This article investigates the hypothesis of hysteresis for the Brazilian manufactured exports and imports in recent years. For that it was used an empirical measure of strong hysteresis (macroeconomic) developed by Piscitelli et al. (2000) and tested its significance in sectoral supply and demand equations for exports and in sectoral equations for import demand. The results shows that Brazilian manufactured exports are strongly determined by international demand, being the empirical measure of real exchange rate expressed by the ratio between international prices and export prices nationals the relevant measure to explain the export performance. With respect to the hysteresis hypothesis, it was rejected for the aggregate of manufactures exports, but accepted in some industrial sectors. For imports this hypothesis was accepted for aggregate of manufactured imports and for ten industrial sectors.

Export-led recoveries in small open industrialized economies

This paper studies the role of Vertical Specialization-based trade and foreign damand push as elements capable of explaining export-led recoveries in small open industrialized economies. The empirical evidence on export-led recoveries is reviewed. Data supporting the growing importance of vertical specialization for international trade are presented. I compare the performance of two versions of a small open economy model, calibrated to mimic Canadian Business Cycles. The …rst one is based upon Schmitt-Grohe(1998). The second incorporates Vertical- Specialization-based trade. I show that an arti…cial economy featuring Vertical-Specializationbased trade in conjunction with an exogenous AR(2) process for foreign output displays improved impulse responses to a foreign output shock and is able to mimic the contribution of Canadian exports to output growth during economic recoveries.