Docagem ou afretamento de UMS: a escolha ótima para a extensão da vida útil das plataformas de petróleo de campos marítimos maduros sob o enfoque das opções reais

O objetivo deste trabalho é propor a utilização do arcabouço teórico das opções reais e a posterior aplicação do modelo binomial na avaliação de projetos relacionados à exploração e produção de petróleo, tendo em vista a flexibilidade gerencial, os riscos e as incertezas técnicas e de mercado que norteiam o setor petrolífero upstream. Ademais, a aplicação do modelo proposto capta o papel crucial da volatilidade do preço do petróleo na avaliação da decisão de investimento e revela a existência dos custos irrecuperáveis extremos decorrentes do ativo real, neste caso, a unidade marítima de petróleo. Assim, com o intuito de prolongar o ciclo de produção de unidade marítima de petróleo com características preestabelecidas, propõe-se a avaliação econômica de duas alternativas tecnológicas para a extensão de vida útil da plataforma marítima objeto de estudo, sendo estas alternativas tratadas como opções de expansão. As alternativas propostas são duas: o afretamento da UMS (Unidade de Manutenção e Segurança) acoplada à plataforma e a docagem da plataforma a partir da desmobilização, isto é, o descomissionamento, e envio da plataforma ao estaleiro. Na aplicação da primeira opção, a UMS se configura em uma embarcação equipada com toda a estrutura necessária para a realização de serviço de manutenção e revitalização, sem que ocorra interrupção da produção de petróleo. Por outro lado, a opção de descomissionamento é desprovida de receita até o retorno da plataforma do estaleiro. No que tange à metodologia do presente trabalho, o modelo binomial com probabilidades de risco neutro é aplicado considerando a receita proveniente da produção de petróleo de uma plataforma marítima com sistema de produção flutuante com 14 poços, sendo 10 produtores e 4 injetores e sustentada por 8 linhas de ancoragem. Também é definida a volatilidade do projeto como sendo a volatilidade do preço do petróleo. Por fim, as opções de expansão podem ser exercidas a qualquer momento antes da data de expiração das opções, data esta coincidente para ambas as opções e referente ao término de contrato de afretamento da UMS, que corresponde ao período de cinco anos. Neste período de cinco anos, as duas alternativas são exercidas a partir do primeiro ano, com receitas e custos distintos em virtude das especificidades decorrentes das alternativas tecnológicas propostas. A partir da aplicação do modelo binomial com probabilidades de risco neutro sob o enfoque das opções reais, as duas alternativas tecnológicas são tratadas como opções americanas na avaliação econômica da revitalização e manutenção da plataforma marítima. Também realiza-se a análise tradicional do VPL para as duas alternativas. As duas análises apontam para a escolha da UMS como alternativa ótima de expansão da vida útil da plataforma. Ademais, a análise sob o enfoque das opções reais capta um valor adicional em ambas as alternativas tecnológicas, fruto das características inerentes à indústria petrolífera. Quanto à estrutura do trabalho em questão se divide em cinco capítulos: introdução, referencial teórico, metodologia, apresentação dos resultados e as considerações finais.

Algumas aplicações de uma contabilidade social em tempos de trabalho - com ênfase em aspectos internacionais e de avaliação socioeconômica

Esta pesquisa aplica o cálculo dos tempos de trabalho, incorporados às exportações de diferentes países, para avaliar de um ângulo novo as relações de troca internacionais. Ao final, ela enfoca as diferenças de critério que resultam na avaliação social de projetos.

Um sistema de metas como ferramenta de gestão pública: "O Programa de Metas da Cidade de São Paulo 2013-2016" sob a perspectiva de seus implementadores

This work, developed within the Master's Degree Program in Public Administration and Government of Eaesp-FGV, consists of an exploratory study on performance measurement in the public sector. It is focused on the identification of complexity elements embedded in the implementation of public policies, to which the goals and targets of a target-oriented system relate, and especially on the implementation of this system as a management tool itself, from the case study of the then ongoing "Programa de Metas da Cidade de São Paulo 2013-2016". All information was obtained from municipal managers, in Government Departments responsible for strategic support activities to the implementation of the system, and sectoral Government Departments whose scope also included crosscutting actions, through interviews conducted from a starting question, and then followed by the free talk of the respondents. Through discourse analysis, an assortment of information was conducted, concerning to: 1) the impacts on management, articulation, and governance of the use of performance measurement and result-oriented management; 2) the flow and publicity of information on performance, produced within the monitoring process of this given target-oriented system, and also concerning the use given to this information; 3) the recording and register of experiences and learning related to the Programa de Metas, and its potential to result as a legacy for the public administrative structure of the City of São Paulo. Assuming that the stories managers tell, in this field of Applied Social Sciences, are as valid as Science or the theoretical constructs on the subject, all information gathered from the point of view of the interviewed public officials was segmented and problematized under the light of the literature on performance measurement. The main objective of this research is to contribute to the creation of parameters for qualitative analysis of the information generated in the implementation of a target-oriented system in Public Management at the local level. It is, from then on, expected that these parameters may help managers and researchers on the monitoring and evaluation of performance of a given government, by favoring the translation of merely arithmetic data on percentage of fulfillment of specific commitments, into eloquent elements more enabled to express the evolution of a mandate. Keywords: result-oriented system, Programa de Metas, management for results, performance measurement, government planning, public policy evaluation, monitoring, implementation, transparency, information legacy.

Development and evaluation of a range anxiety-reducing business model for connected full electric vehicles

This thesis develops and evaluates a business model for connected full electric vehicles (FEV) for the European market. Despite a promoting political environment, various barriers have thus far prevented the FEV from becoming a mass-market vehicle. Besides cost, the most noteworthy of these barriers is represented by range anxiety, a product of FEVs’ limited range, lacking availability of charging infrastructure, and long recharging times. Connected FEVs, which maintain a constant connection to the surrounding infrastructure, appear to be a promising element to overcome drivers’ range anxiety. Yet their successful application requires a well functioning FEV ecosystem which can only be created through the collaboration of various stakeholders such as original equipment manufacturers (OEM), first tier suppliers (FTS), charging infrastructure and service providers (CISP), utilities, communication enablers, and governments. This thesis explores and evaluates how a business model, jointly created by these stakeholders, could look like, i.e. how stakeholders could collaborate in the design of products, services, infrastructure, and advanced mobility management, to meet drivers with a sensible value proposition that is at least equivalent to that of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars. It suggests that this value proposition will be an end-2-end package provided by CISPs or OEMs that comprises mobility packages (incl. pay per mile plans, battery leasing, charging and battery swapping (BS) infrastructure) and FEVs equipped with an on-board unit (OBU) combined with additional services targeted at range anxiety reduction. From a theoretical point of view the thesis answers the question which business model framework is suitable for the development of a holistic, i.e. all stakeholder-comprising business model for connected FEVs and defines such a business model. In doing so the thesis provides the first comprehensive business model related research findings on connected FEVs, as prior works focused on the much less complex scenario featuring only “offline” FEVs.

Impact assessment and quality analysis of corporate social responsability (CSR) programs of mining companies and their contribution to sustainable development in the communities they operate: case study Tenke Fungurume Mining SA in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

Purpose – This case study presents an impact assessment of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) programs of the TFM Company in order to understand how they contribute to the sustainable development of communities in areas in which they operate. Design/Methodology/Approach - Data for this study was collected using qualitative data methods that included semi-structured interviews and Focus Group Discussions most of them audio and video recorded. Documentary analysis and a field visit were also undertaken for the purpose of quality analysis of the CSR programs on the terrain. Data collected was analyzed using the Seven Questions to sustainability (7Qs) framework, an evaluation tool developed by the Mining, Minerals and Sustainable Development (MMSD) North America chapter. Content analysis method was on the other hand used to examine the interviews and FGDs of the study participants. Findings - Results shows that CSR programs of TFM SA do contribute to community development, as there have been notable changes in the communities’ living conditions. But whether they have contributed to sustainable development is not yet the case as programs that enhance the capacity of communities and other stakeholders to support these projects development beyond the implementation stage and the mines operation lifetime need to be considered and implemented. Originality/Value – In DRC, there is paucity of information of research studies that focus on impact assessment of CSR programs in general and specifically those of mining companies and their contribution to sustainable development of local communities. Many of the available studies cover issues of minerals and conflict or conflict minerals as mostly referred to. This study addressees this gap.