An overview of some historical brazilian macroeconomic series and some open questions

This paper presents an overview of the Brazilian macroeconomy by analyzing the evolution of some specific time series. The presentation is made through a sequence of graphs. Several remarkable historical points and open questions come up in the data. These include, among others, the drop in output growth as of 1980, the clear shift from investments to government current expenditures which started in the beginning of the 80s, the notable way how money, prices and exchange rate correlate in an environment of permanently high inflation, the historical coexistence of high rates of growth and high rates of inflation, as well as the drastic increase of the velocity of circulation of money between the 70s and the mid-90s. It is also shown that, although net external liabilities have increased substantially in current dollars after the Real Plan, its ratio with respect to exports in 2004 is practically the same as the one existing in 1986; and that residents in Brazil, in average, owed two more months of their final income (GNP) to abroad between 1995-2004 than they did between 1990 and 1994. Variance decompositions show that money has been important to explain prices, but not output (GDP).

Cobrança pelo uso da água e o setor de saneamento no Estado de São Paulo

A partir dos objetivos propostos pelas políticas nacionais de saúde, ambientais e de saneamento básico buscou-se analisar os efeitos da cobrança pelo uso da água no setor de saneamento básico, visando identificar possíveis variações causadas por este instrumento econômico no acesso à água, na qualidade do produto ofertado e na qualidade do serviço prestado. Ainda, por se tratar de um serviço público, analisamos a performance técnica das empresas paulistas do setor de saneamento básico na prestação deste serviço por meio da metodologia Data Envelopment Analysis. Esta ferramenta resulta em um indicador de desempenho, com base na melhor relação input/output, ao estabelecer um ranking de eficiência médio a partir das práticas mais eficientes de cada unidade produtiva.

Aspectos do comércio entre China e Brasil e seus impactos

O presente trabalho tem como objetivo clarificar alguns pontos da relação comercial entre Brasil e China. Em grande parte é um trabalho descritivo, que utiliza diferentes agregações de produtos (Sistema harmônico; Broad Economic Categories), a fim de construir um cenário completo desta relação. Efeitos totais na produção brasileira, oriundos da demanda Chinesa por produtos Brasileiros também são analisados. Para tal utilizamos o ferramental de Matriz de Insumo Produto. Este efeito também é construído para o comércio do Brasil com os outros países do Mundo, e uma comparação é estabelecida. No fim do trabalho temos um estudo sobre possibilidades de comércio que ainda não foram exploradas entre esses dois países.

The role of profits in wage determination: evidence from US manufacturing

We estimate the effect of firms' profitability on wage determination for the American economy. Two standard bargaining models are used to illustrate the problems caused by the endogeneity of profits-per-worker in a real wage equation. The profit-sharing parameter can be identified with instruments which shift demando Using information from the input-output table, we create demand-shift variables for 63 4-digit sectors of the US manufacturing sector. The LV. estimates show that profit-sharing is a relevant and widespread phenomenon. The elasticity of wages with respect to profits-per-worker is seven times as large as OLS estimates here and in previous papers. Sensitivity analysis of the profit-sharing parameter controlling for the extent of unionization and product market concentration reinforces our results.

Economic landscapes, what are they? an application to the Brazilian economy and to the sugar cane complex

In assessing the economic impact of a sector or group of sectors on a single or multiregional economy, input-output analysis has proven to be a popular method. . However, there has a problem in displaying all the information that can be obtained from this analytical approach. In this paper, we have tried to set new directions in the use of input-output analysis by presenting an improved way of looking at the economic landscapes. While this is not a new concept, a new meaning is explored in this paper; essentially, it will now be possible to visualize, in a simple picture, all the relations in the economy as well as being able to view how one sector is related to the other sectors/regions in the economy. These relations can be measured in terms of structural changes, production, value added, employment, imports, etc. While all the possibilities cannot be explored in this paper, the basic idea is given here and the smart reader can uncover all the various possibilities. To illustrate the power of analysis provided by the economic landscapes, an application is made to the sugar cane complex using an interregional inputoutput system for the Brazilian economy, constructed for 2 regions (Northeast and Rest of Brazil), for the years of 1985, 1992, and 1995.

The manufacturing industry in Brazil in the era of global value chains

This article presents a comprehensive and detailed overview of the international trade performance of the manufacturing industry in Brazil over the last decades, emphasizing its participation in Global Value Chains. It uses information from recent available global inputoutput tables such as WIOD (World Input-output database) and TIVA (Trade in Value Added, OECD) as well as complementary information from the GTAP 8 (Global Trade Analysis Project) database. The calculation of a broad set of value added type indicators allows a precise contextualization of the ongoing structural changes in the Brazilian industry, highlighting the relative isolation of its manufacturing sector from the most relevant international supply chains. This article also proposes a public policy discussion, presenting two case studies: the first one related to trade facilitation and the second one to preferential trade agreements. The main conclusions are twofold: first, the reduction of time delays at customs in Brazil may significantly improve the trade performance of its manufacturing industry, specially for the more capital intensive sectors which are generally the ones with greater potential to connection to global value chains; second, the extension of the concept of a “preferential trade partner” to the context of the global unbundling of production may pave the way to future trade policy in Brazil, particularly in the mapping of those partners whose bilateral trade relations with Brazil should receive greater priority by policy makers.

Global stabilizing feedback law for a problem of biological control of mosquito-borne diseases

The control of the spread of dengue fever by introduction of the intracellular parasitic bacterium Wolbachia in populations of the vector Aedes aegypti, is presently one of the most promising tools for eliminating dengue, in the absence of an efficient vaccine. The success of this operation requires locally careful planning to determine the adequate number of mosquitoes carrying the Wolbachia parasite that need to be introduced into the natural population. The latter are expected to eventually replace the Wolbachia-free population and guarantee permanent protection against the transmission of dengue to human. In this paper, we propose and analyze a model describing the fundamental aspects of the competition between mosquitoes carrying Wolbachia and mosquitoes free of the parasite. We then introduce a simple feedback control law to synthesize an introduction protocol, and prove that the population is guaranteed to converge to a stable equilibrium where the totality of mosquitoes carry Wolbachia. The techniques are based on the theory of monotone control systems, as developed after Angeli and Sontag. Due to bistability, the considered input-output system has multivalued static characteristics, but the existing results are unable to prove almost-global stabilization, and ad hoc analysis has to be conducted.

The manufacturing industry in Brazil in the era of global value chains

This article presents a comprehensive and detailed overview of the international trade performance of the manufacturing industry in Brazil over the last decades, emphasizing its participation in Global Value Chains. It uses information from recent available global inputoutput tables such as WIOD (World Input-output database) and TIVA (Trade in Value Added, OECD) as well as complementary information from the GTAP 8 (Global Trade Analysis Project) database. The calculation of a broad set of value added type indicators allows a precise contextualization of the ongoing structural changes in the Brazilian industry, highlighting the relative isolation of its manufacturing sector from the most relevant international supply chains. This article also proposes a public policy discussion, presenting two case studies: the first one related to trade facilitation and the second one to preferential trade agreements. The main conclusions are twofold: first, the reduction of time delays at customs in Brazil may significantly improve the trade performance of its manufacturing industry, specially for the more capital intensive sectors which are generally the ones with greater potential to connection to global value chains; second, the extension of the concept of a “preferential trade partner” to the context of the global unbundling of production may pave the way to future trade policy in Brazil, particularly in the mapping of those partners whose bilateral trade relations with Brazil should receive greater priority by policy makers

Central bank balance sheet concerns and credible optimal escape from the Liquidity trap

I show that when a central bank is financially independent from the treasury and has balance sheet concerns, an increase in the size or a change in the composition of the central bank's balance sheet (quantitative easing) can serve as a commitment device in a liquidity trap scenario. In particular, when the short-term interest rate is up against the zero lower bound, an open market operation by the central bank that involves purchases of long-term bonds can help mitigate the deation and a large negative output gap under a discretionary equilibrium. This is because such an open market operation provides an incentive to the central bank to keep interest rates low in future in order to avoid losses in its balance sheet.

Business cycles in emerging economies : the role of interest rates

This paper documents the empirical relation between the interest rates that emerging economies face in international capital markets and their business cycles. It shows that the patterns observed in the data can be interpreted as the equilibrium of a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy, in which (i) firms have to pay for a fraction of the input bill before production takes place, and (ii) preferences generate a labor supply that is independent of the interest rate. In our sample, interest rates are strongly countercyclical, strongly positively correlated with net exports, and they lead the cycle. Output is very volatile and consumption is more volatile than output. The sample includes data for Argentina during 1983-2000 and for four other large emerging economies, Brazil, Mexico, Korea, and Philippines, during 1994-2000. The model is calibrated to Argentina’s economy for the period 1983-1999. When the model is fed with actual US interest rates and the actual default spreads of Argentine sovereign interest rates, interest rates alone can explain forty percent of output fluctuations. When simulated technology shocks are added to the model, it can account for the main empirical regularities of Argentina’s economy during the period. A 1% increase in country risk causes a contemporaneous fall in output of 0.5 ’subsequent recovery. An increase in US rates causes output to fall by the same on impact and by almost 2% two years after the shock. The asymetry in the effect of shocks to US rates and country risk is due to the fact that US interest rates are more persistent than country risk and that there is a significant spillover effect from US interest rates to country risk.