Efeito da abertura comercial na variação da taxa de câmbio real em episódios de sudden stop

A dissertação investiga a relação entre a abertura comercial e o custo de reversão do saldo da conta corrente em economias que sofrem episódios de contração abrupta do influxo de capital. Nesses episódios, os governos procuram inicialmente equilibrar o balanço de pagamentos recorrendo às reservas internacionais, mas normalmente o fenômeno persiste até que se efetive uma desvalorização real do câmbio. Apresentamos um modelo simples para mostrar que, em economias mais abertas comercialmente, o saldo da balança comercial responde com mais intensidade à desvalorização cambial. Dessa forma, a reversão do saldo de conta corrente em episódios de restrição de liquidez decorrentes da contração dos influxos de capital é alcançada de maneira menos custosa. Confirmamos essa constatação teórica para países emergentes através de um exercício empírico que utiliza dados trimestrais de 42 países entre 1980 e 2003.

The failure of early-stage technology startups in Brazil: a study about the contributing factors to the early-death of startups between 2009 and 2014 in Southeastern Brazil

This research aimed to find out which are the main factors that lead technology startups to fail. The study focused on companies located in the Southeast region of Brazil that operated between 2009 and 2014. In the beginning, a review of the literature was done to have a better understanding of basic concepts of entrepreneurship as well as modern techniques for developing entrepreneurship. Furthermore, an analysis of the entrepreneurial scenario in Brazil, with a focus on the Southeast, was also done. After this phase, the qualitative study began, in which 24 specialists from startups were interviewed and asked about which factors were crucial in leading a technology startup to fail. After analyzing the results, four main factors were identified and these factors were validated through a quantitative survey. A questionnaire was then formulated based on the answers from the respondents and distributed to founders and executives of startups, which both failed and succeeded. The questionnaire was answered by 56 companies and their answers were treated with the factor analysis statistical method to check the validity of the questionnaire. Finally, the logistical regression method was used to know the extent to which the factors led to the startups’ failure. In the end, the results obtained suggest that the most significant factor that leads technology startups in southeastern Brazil to fail are problems with interpersonal relationship between partners or investors.