How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (‘light-touch’) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — i.e., by investors who have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. Thus, ‘fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in (excessively) ‘friendly-regulated’ and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (light-touched) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — investors have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. ‘Fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in unregulated and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

Common cycles in macroeconomic aggregates

Reduced form estimation of multivariate data sets currently takes into account long-run co-movement restrictions by using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM' s). However, short-run co-movement restrictions are completely ignored. This paper proposes a way of taking into account short-and long-run co-movement restrictions in multivariate data sets, leading to efficient estimation of VECM' s. It enables a more precise trend-cycle decomposition of the data which imposes no untested restrictions to recover these two components. The proposed methodology is applied to a multivariate data set containing U.S. per-capita output, consumption and investment Based on the results of a post-sample forecasting comparison between restricted and unrestricted VECM' s, we show that a non-trivial loss of efficiency results whenever short-run co-movement restrictions are ignored. While permanent shocks to consumption still play a very important role in explaining consumption’s variation, it seems that the improved estimates of trends and cycles of output, consumption, and investment show evidence of a more important role for transitory shocks than previously suspected. Furthermore, contrary to previous evidence, it seems that permanent shocks to output play a much more important role in explaining unemployment fluctuations.

Trajetórias De Acumulação De Capacidades Inovadoras, Mecanismos De Aprendizagem E Fatores Organizacionais Relativos A Atividades Em Gestão De Projetos: Estudo De Caso Comparativo Inter-Empresarial Na Indústria De Bens De Capital E De Celulose E Papel No Brasil

Over the last 40 years there has been a profusion of studies about the ccumulation of technological capacities in firms from developing economies. However, there remain few studies that examine, on a combined basis, the relationship among: the trajectories of technological capacities accumulation; the underlying learning mechanisms; and, the implications of organizational factors for these two variables. Still scarcer are the studies that examine the relationship among these variables along time and based on a comparative case study. This dissertation examines the relationship among the trajectory of accumulation of innovative capacities in complex project management, the learning mechanisms underlying these technological capacities and the intra-organizational factors that influence these learning echanisms. That set of relationships is examined through a comparative and a long-term (1988-2008) case study in a capital goods firm (for the pulp and paper industry) and a pulp mill in Brazil. Based on first-hand quantitative and qualitative empiric evidence, gathered through extensive field research, this dissertation found: 1. Both firms accumulated innovative capacity in project management at the international frontier level (Level 6). However, there was variability between the firms in terms of the nature and speed of accumulation of those capacities. It was also observed that, at this level of innovation, the innovative capacities of both firms are not confined to their organizational boundaries, but they are distributed beyond their boundaries. 2. So that these companies could accumulate those levels of innovative capacities it was necessary to manage several learning mechanisms: leveraging of external knowledge and its internalization in terms of internal apacities of the firm. In other words, as the companies accumulated more innovative levels of capacities for project management, it was necessary to manage different cycles of technological learning. 3. Further, the relationship between the ccumulation of technological capacities and learning was affected positively by intra-organizational factors, such as 'authority disposition', 'mutability of work roles' and 'intensity of internal crises', and negatively by the factor 'singularity of goals'. This dissertation revealed divergent results between firms in two of the four factors studied. These results contribute to advance our understanding of the complexity and variability involved in the process of accumulation of innovative capacities in firms from developing economies. This highlights the growing importance of the organizational and the human resource dimensions of innovation and technological capacity as the company approaches the international frontier. The results suggest to managers that: (i) the good performance in project management in the two firms studied did not occur simply as a result of the pulp and paper Brazilian industry growth, rather as a result of the deliberate construction and accumulation of the capacities through an intensive and coordinated cyclical process of technological learning, (ii) to develop innovative capabilities in project management, besides looking for learning mechanisms they should also look at the organizational factors that influence the learning mechanisms directly, (iii) performance of pulp mill¿s projects is better when projects are implemented together with technology suppliers than when performed only by the mill. This dissertation concludes that capital goods firms have been having a fundamental role for the innovative capabilities accumulation in project management of pulp mills in Brazil (and vice-versa) for a long time. This contradicts some authors' propositions that affirm that: a) equipment suppliers for the pulp and paper industry have been creating little, if any, development of processes or engineering projects in Brazil; b) firms in the pulp and paper industry have little capacity for machinery and equipments projects only taking place in few technological activities, being internal or external to the firm. Finally, some studies are proposed for future research.

Preços de etanol no Brasil : uma análise espacial

A introdução da tecnologia flex-fuel resultou em um expressivo aumento do consumo de etanol no Brasil, tornando-o principal concorrente da gasolina nos postos de combustíveis. Apesar disso, diferentemente da gasolina, a oferta de etanol sofre com a sazonalidade da safra de cana de açúcar, mostrando-se insuficiente para atender a demanda, incorrendo em altos preços nos períodos de entressafra. Além destes fatores, a expansão do uso de etanol como combustível enfrenta a ausência de políticas públicas claras que incentivem o mercado, assim como uma estrutura logística que permita o escoamento do produto a baixos custos. O presente trabalho buscou demonstrar como se comportam espacialmente os preços de etanol e gasolina no Brasil. Observou-se que os preços de etanol combustível ao consumidor foram menores quanto mais próximos das regiões produtoras e maiores conforme se distanciam, até se tornarem desvantajosos para o consumidor de alguns estados na medida em que a paridade de preços frente à gasolina supera o limite técnico de 70%. Observou-se também que a sazonalidade distinta das duas regiões produtoras do país define padrões sazonais de áreas que predominantemente consomem etanol ou gasolina, conforme a paridade de 70%. Este resultado indica que a necessidade de estoques e fluxos de produtos depende não apenas das condições logísticas, mas também da combinação da sazonalidade das regiões produtoras. Por fim, intencionou-se entender como e em que proporção os preços ao produtor do estado de São Paulo relacionam-se com os preços ao consumidor de outras regiões do país. Este estudo demonstrou que a velocidade de transmissão dos preços não está relacionada com a distância e que fatores logísticos e características específicas de cada mercado são os principais determinantes do comportamento dos preços ao consumidor em relação às alterações nos preços ao produtor do estado de São Paulo.

Os ciclos de conferências da defensoria pública do Estado de São Paulo: controle e participação social

O objetivo desta dissertação é estudar os Ciclos de Conferências da Defensoria Pública do Estado de São Paulo para entender qual papel eles desempenham em relação a participação popular na gestão da Defensoria Pública. O problema de pesquisa consiste em verificar se e como elas contribuem para garantir a participação social dentro da gestão da Defensoria, levando em consideração o estudo sobre a implementação ou não das diretrizes elaboradas pela população durante a realização dos I, II e III Ciclos de Conferências e a compreensão das diferentes falas que os atores tem em relação aos Ciclos de Conferências. A conclusão é a de que os Ciclos de Conferências não foram absorvidos de forma homogênea pela instituição como um importante mecanismo orientador das prioridades institucionais, capaz de vocalizar os anseios da população, arejando a instituição, e colaborando com a construção de políticas públicas alinhadas às demandas da população. É necessário que seja pactuado e esclarecido o caráter das propostas elaboradas nas Conferências (caráter deliberativo ou consultivo) sob pena do mecanismo participativo em questão perder aderência popular.