Laws of large numbers for non-additive probabilities

We apply the concept of exchangeable random variables to the case of non-additive robability distributions exhibiting ncertainty aversion, and in the lass generated bya convex core convex non-additive probabilities, ith a convex core). We are able to rove two versions of the law of arge numbers (de Finetti's heorems). By making use of two efinitions. of independence we rove two versions of the strong law f large numbers. It turns out that e cannot assure the convergence of he sample averages to a constant. e then modal the case there is a true" probability distribution ehind the successive realizations of the uncertain random variable. In this case convergence occurs. This result is important because it renders true the intuition that it is possible "to learn" the "true" additive distribution behind an uncertain event if one repeatedly observes it (a sufficiently large number of times). We also provide a conjecture regarding the "Iearning" (or updating) process above, and prove a partia I result for the case of Dempster-Shafer updating rule and binomial trials.

Emerging markets yield curve dynamics

This work extendes Diebold, Li and Yueís (2006) about global yield curve and proposes to extend the study by including emerging countries. The perception of emerging market su§ers ináuence of external factors or global factors, is the main argument of this work. We expect to obtain stylized facts.that obey similar pattern found by those authors. The results indicate the existence of global level and global slope factors. These factors represent an important fraction in the bond yield determination and show a decreasing trend of the global level factor low ináuence of global slope factor in these countries when they are compared with developed countries. Keywords: Kalman Filter, Emerging Markets, Yield Curve, and Bond.

A structuralist Philips curve

This paper presents a structuralist model of the Philips curve and applies it to the US and Brazilian economies. The theoretical model starts from a simple markup rule to build a Philips curve based on the assumptions that firms have a desired rate of profit and wokers have a target real wage. Inflation expectations are modeled in terms of current inflation and the governments’ target, and the model shows that relative prices can have both a short-run and long-run influence on inflation. When applied to the US, the structuralist Philips curve results in a nonlinear model in which there are two steady states for inflation, and where the wageshare of income becomes the main instrument to drive inflation to the governments’ target. When applied to Brazil, the structuralist Philips curve reveals a nonlinear relationship between long-run inflation and the real exchange rate, so that the same inflation target can be consistent with more than one value of the exchange rate. The main conclusion of the paper is that a structuralist specification of the Philips curve is a useful instrument to model many macroeconomic topics as well as alternative theoretical closures.