Preferences, common knowledge and speculative trade

We study the proposition that if it is common knowledge that en allocation of assets is ex-ante pareto efficient, there is no further trade generated by new information. The key to this result is that the information partitions and other characteristics of the agents must be common knowledge and that contracts, or asset markets, must be complete. It does not depend on learning, on 'lemons' problems, nor on agreement regarding beliefs and the interpretation of information. The only requirement on preferences is state-additivity; in particular, traders need not be risk-averse. We also prove the converse result that "no-trade results" imply that traders' preferences can be represented by state-additive utility functions. We analyze why examples of other widely studied preferences (e.g., Schmeidler (1989)) allow "speculative" trade.

Common currency and economic integration in Mercosur

A América Latina tem uma longa história de tentativas de alcançar uma integração regional, embora seu sucesso tenha sido modesto. Este trabalho procura mostrar que isso essencialmente ocorre não tanto pelas práticas protecionistas nos vários países, mas devido à falta de uma moeda comum, ou, pelo menos, de uma taxa de câmbio rigorosamente administrada. Os autores analisaram o critério da área ótima de moeda que mostra ser prudente aumentar a integração econômica antes de tentar implementar a coordenação das taxas de câmbio. Entretanto, nós mostramos que no Mercosul já existem as condições mínimas para começar a trabalhar nessa direção. A diminuição da instabilidade cambial pode encorajar a entrada de investimentos e o comércio nas economias latino-americanas. Os autores também desenvolveram um exercício simplificado para entender como poderia ser viável alcançar estabilidade da taxa de câmbio em nos dois maiores países da região (Brasil e Argentina) e avançar na adoção de uma moeda comum.

Global governance, currency and trade: implications of one on the other, common problems and how to address cooperation through law at the international level

How to deal with the impacts of the exchange rate on the trade balance of Brazil? There is not a single answer to such question. In order to find out some legal approaches for this matter, this paper aims to describe and analyze the role of the IMF, WTO and the governments of Brazil and the United States on the currency misalignments, especially the extraterritorial effects of such misalignment on the Brazil’s bilateral trade with the United States. The article concludes that the Currency Swap Agreements and other bilateral solutions may minimize the distortions that the Brazilian balance of payment against the USA is carrying, due to the lack of legal solutions for the problem of the exchange rate misalignments that Brazil is facing.

Estimating sectoral cycles using cointegration and common features

This paper investigates the degree of short run and long run co-movement in U.S. sectoral output data by estimating sectoraI trends and cycles. A theoretical model based on Long and Plosser (1983) is used to derive a reduced form for sectoral output from first principles. Cointegration and common features (cycles) tests are performed; sectoral output data seem to share a relatively high number of common trends and a relatively low number of common cycles. A special trend-cycle decomposition of the data set is performed and the results indicate a very similar cyclical behavior across sectors and a very different behavior for trends. Indeed. sectors cyclical components appear as one. In a variance decomposition analysis, prominent sectors such as Manufacturing and Wholesale/Retail Trade exhibit relatively important transitory shocks.

Common cycles in macroeconomic aggregates (revised version)

Although there has been substantial research on long-run co-movement (common trends) in the empirical macroeconomics literature. little or no work has been done on short run co-movement (common cycles). Investigating common cycles is important on two grounds: first. their existence is an implication of most dynamic macroeconomic models. Second. they impose important restrictions on dynamic systems. Which can be used for efficient estimation and forecasting. In this paper. using a methodology that takes into account short- and long-run co-movement restrictions. we investigate their existence in a multivariate data set containing U.S. per-capita output. consumption. and investment. As predicted by theory. the data have common trends and common cycles. Based on the results of a post-sample forecasting comparison between restricted and unrestricted systems. we show that a non-trivial loss of efficiency results when common cycles are ignored. If permanent shocks are associated with changes in productivity. the latter fails to be an important source of variation for output and investment contradicting simple aggregate dynamic models. Nevertheless. these shocks play a very important role in explaining the variation of consumption. Showing evidence of smoothing. Furthermore. it seems that permanent shocks to output play a much more important role in explaining unemployment fluctuations than previously thought.

Impactos emocionais causados pela mudança de estilo de gestão em um hospital na cidade de São Luis-MA

The objective of this study is to identify how a health institution can minimize the emotional impacts caused by the change of a style of classic management for a participative administration, that the workers and controllers can see the institution as a dynamic organization, that must be faced as an alive system, mobile and adaptable, where they is beings that have the right to react and to answer to the stimulatons. For that, the institution can handle motivator¿s instruments that develop in the people the potential to react of adequate way to the changes proposals, as well as increasing the perspective of possible technological improvements and interpersonal relationship between the internal and external customers. To change the style to manage, to hear the staff of support and user, are not part of the routine of the heads that develop classic management. This decision demands adaptation and flexibility, study, update and psychological preparation, to face common feelings to the new. It fits to the new directors, to visualize these feelings and work to minimize, avoiding future upheavals and the confrontation of situations that can harm the production of the company, as well as the quality of the communication between the diverse dimensions of the organization people. In this study case, based in phenomenological methodology, was possible to verify, through half-open interviews and comments, how was faced the feelings caused at the old direction time, composed for military who withheld the power and determined the actions of the hospital in study, was replaced by health professionals, that saw in the work team the best option to solve the problems and the potential to carry through an administration based in adequate strategies the reality of the moment, with the objective of reaching the satisfaction of the customer. Through this work, is possible to prove the theory that the changes cause impacts that affect the behavior of the people involved and cause stress, as well as conclude that despite the new direction show themselves, during the change, much made use to make right and involve all the workers, didn¿t have traced strategies to minimize the emotional impacts caused by the changes, what made all face their feelings of doubts and anxiety without no special care. Many obtained, by themselves, to face and to adapt the new proposals, but some could not assimilate the new administrative methodology and had been moved away definitively from the institution.

Temporal aggregation and bandwidth selection in estimating long memory

This paper reinterprets results of Ohanissian et al (2003) to show the asymptotic equivalence of temporally aggregating series and using less bandwidth in estimating long memory by Geweke and Porter-Hudak’s (1983) estimator, provided that the same number of periodogram ordinates is used in both cases. This equivalence is in the sense that their joint distribution is asymptotically normal with common mean and variance and unity correlation. Furthermore, I prove that the same applies to the estimator of Robinson (1995). Monte Carlo simulations show that this asymptotic equivalence is a good approximation in finite samples. Moreover, a real example with the daily US Dollar/French Franc exchange rate series is provided.

Por que mudar? Uma análise da transformação da jurisprudência do Supremo Tribunal Federal sobre a prisão civil de depositário infiel e da teoria dos precedentes

Por que uma corte muda seu posicionamento sobre determinado assunto? Esse trabalho objetiva analisar quais seriam as eventuais alegações e razões que acompanham a mudança de um precedente horizontal, quando da ocorrência de mudança de entendimento de um tribunal. Ainda que observando as diferenças na doutrina do stare decisis entre o commom law e o civil law no que tange à vinculação aos precedentes horizontais das Cortes, a pesquisa possui como foco a não aplicação dede um precedente horizontal do Supremo Tribunal Federal - STF sobre depositário infiel e hierarquia normativa de tratados de direitos humanos. Com vistas a analisar e classificar as manifestações dos Ministros, nesse caso em tela, procurou-se um enquadramento que oferecesse uma sistematização das razões mais comuns para uma Corte não seguir um precedente. Para tanto, foram estudados casos em que a Suprema Corte Americana alterou entendimento consolidado em precedentes horizontais e identificados os fundamentos que acompanharam a revogação dos precedentes.

Simulation -based smoothing and filtering in factor stochastic volatility models : two econometric applications (July-2001)

The past decade has wítenessed a series of (well accepted and defined) financial crises periods in the world economy. Most of these events aI,"e country specific and eventually spreaded out across neighbor countries, with the concept of vicinity extrapolating the geographic maps and entering the contagion maps. Unfortunately, what contagion represents and how to measure it are still unanswered questions. In this article we measure the transmission of shocks by cross-market correlation\ coefficients following Forbes and Rigobon's (2000) notion of shift-contagion,. Our main contribution relies upon the use of traditional factor model techniques combined with stochastic volatility mo deIs to study the dependence among Latin American stock price indexes and the North American indexo More specifically, we concentrate on situations where the factor variances are modeled by a multivariate stochastic volatility structure. From a theoretical perspective, we improve currently available methodology by allowing the factor loadings, in the factor model structure, to have a time-varying structure and to capture changes in the series' weights over time. By doing this, we believe that changes and interventions experienced by those five countries are well accommodated by our models which learns and adapts reasonably fast to those economic and idiosyncratic shocks. We empirically show that the time varying covariance structure can be modeled by one or two common factors and that some sort of contagion is present in most of the series' covariances during periods of economical instability, or crisis. Open issues on real time implementation and natural model comparisons are thoroughly discussed.