The effects of uncertainty about the timing of deals on consumer behavior

I examine the effects of uncertainty about the timing of de aIs (i.e. temporary price cuts or sales) on consumer behavior in a dynamic inventory model of consumer choice. I derive implications for purchase behavior and test them empirically, using two years of scanner data for soft drinks. I fmd that loyal consumers' decisions, both about the allocation of their purchases over time and the quantity to be purchased in a particular deal, are affected by the uncertainty about the timing of the deal for the product. Loyal consumers buy a higher fraction of their overall purchases during de ais as the uncertainty decreases. This effect increases with an increase in the product' s share of a given consumer' s purchase in the same category or if the consumer stockpiles (i.e., is a shopper). During a particular deal, loyal shoppers increase the quantity they purchase the more time that has passed since the previous de aI, and the higher the uncertainty about the deals' timing. For the non-Ioyal consumers these effects are not significant. These results hold for products that are frequently purchased, like soft-drinks and yogurt, but do not hold for less frequentIy purchased products, such as laundry detergents. The fmdings suggest that manufacturers and retailers should incorporate the effects of deals' timing on consumers' purchase' decisions when deriving optimal pricing strategies.

The effects of government deficit on equilibrium real exchange rates and stock prices

This paper studies the effect of government deficits on equilibrium real exchange rates and stock prices. The theoretical part modifies a two-country cash-in-advance model like used in Lucas(1982) and Sargent(1987) in order to accommodate an exchange rate market and a government that pursues fiscal and monetary policy targets. The implied result is that unanticipated shocks in government deficits raise expectations of both taxes and inflation and, therefore, are associated with real exchange rate devaluations and lower stock prices. This finding is strongly supported by empirical evidence for a group of 19 countries, representing 76% of world production

International entry modes in Brazil and the CAGE distances effects

The international entry mode choices have a relevant importance for the impact they have on successful internationalization strategies. Many theories have been developed to describe which entry mode may be better than another according to the particular situation. The CAGE Distances Framework developed by Ghemawat to identify which dimensions companies should look when develop an internationalization strategy, may be useful to identify also how those dimensions impact on the international entry mode decision. The aim of this thesis is to study which kind of relationship exists between Cultural, Administrative, Geographic and Economic Distances and international entry mode choice. It analyzes a sample of companies that have been entered in Brazil through a logistic regression. According to this analysis, a negative and significant relation between Cultural Distance and need of control exists, a positive one exists between Administrative and Geographic, while no significant relationship has been found with the Economic dimension. Those findings are conceivably explainable through the theories found by scholars, but a deeper analysis that may take into account the specificity of every country is highly recommended, like the one developed with Brazil in this thesis.