The impact of AIDS on income and human capital

This paper studies the impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita income and education. It explores two channels from HIV/AIDS to income that have not been sufficiently stressed by the literature: the reduction of the incentives to study due to shorter expected longevity and the reduction of productivity of experienced workers. In the model individuals live for three periods, may get infected in the second period and with some probability die of Aids before reaching the third period of their life. Parents care for the welfare of the future generations so that they will maximize lifetime utility of their dynasty. The simulations predict that the most affected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa will be in the future, on average, thirty percent poorer than they would be without AIDS. Schooling will decline in some cases by forty percent. These figures are dramatically reduced with widespread medical treatment, as it increases the survival probability and productivity of infected individuals.

The long run economic impact of AIDS

This paper studies the long-run impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita income and education. We introduce a channel from HIV/AIDS to long-run income that has been overlooked by the literature, the reduction of the incentives to study due to shorter expected longevity. We work with a continuous time overlapping generations mo deI in which life cycle features of savings and education decision play key roles. The simulations predict that the most affected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa will be in the future, on average, a quarter poorer than they would be without AIDS, due only to the direct (human capital reduction) and indirect (decline in savings and investment) effects of life-expectancy reductions. Schooling will decline on average by half. These findings are well above previous results in the literature and indicate that, as pessimistic as they may be, at least in economic terms the worst could be yet to come.

The long-run economic impact of AIDS

This paper studies the long-run impact of HIV / AIDS on per capita income and education. We introduce a channel from HIV / AIDS to long-run income that has been overlooked by the literature, the reduction of the incentives to study due to shorter expected longevity. We work with a continuous time overlapping generations mo deI in which life cycle features of savings and education decision play key roles. The simulations predict that the most affected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa will be in the future, on average, a quarter poorer than they would be without AIDS, due only to the direct (human capital reduction) and indirect (decline in savings and investment) effects of life-expectancy reductions. Schooling will decline on average by half. These findings are well above previous results in the literature and indicate that, as pessimistic as they may be, at least in economic terms the worst could be yet to come.

Uma avaliação do programa de DST/AIDS do município do Rio de Janeiro: a ótica dos atores sociais

Avaliação do Programa de DST/AIDS do Município do Rio de Janeiro. A pesquisa objetiva identificar as percepções, expectativas e sugestões sobre o referido Programa, a partir da ótica dos usuários, profissionais de saúde e coordenadores das unidades no que tange à qualidade dos serviços prestados. A opção teóricometodológica do estudo fundamenta-se na abordagem hermenêutico-dialética, pois busca a análise dos significados sociais. Tendo em vista a complexidade da temática em destaque, prioriza a metodologia qualitativa na coleta e no tratamento dos dados, por considerar que a abordagem permite uma aproximação e aprofundamento da compreensão do fenômeno. Privilegia a pesquisa descritiva e analítica. A pesquisa de campo ocorre num Centro Municipal de Saúde e num Centro de Testagem Anônima de AIDS situados no Rio de Janeiro, que prestam serviços de atendimento ambulatorial e testagem, com ênfase na prevenção. Para o resgate da fala dos atores, foi utilizada a entrevista semi-estruturada. A pesquisa focaliza a ótica dos atores sociais sobre a assistência prestada. A análise do material empírico indica que a qualidade dos serviços prestados pelo programa de DST/AIDS no município é eficiente no que tange aos meios utilizados no desenvolvimento do trabalho. Porém, em relação aos recursos humanos e materiais ocorrem limitações para o alcance da eficácia e ter um impacto mais efetivo, do ponto de vista de mudança de comportamento e controle da epidemia no Município do Rio de Janeiro. Essa problemática aponta para uma reformulação das diretrizes, políticas, técnicas e orçamentárias e, principalmente de canais de comunicação mais eficazes junto à população usuária dos serviços e aos profissionais que desenvolvem atividades do Programa, a fim de ouvir e discutir suas demandas, o que incidirá numa contribuição para o encaminhamento do programa.

Macroeconomic constraints to growth of Brazilian economy diagnosis and some policy proposals

The recent process of accelerated expansion of the Brazilian economy was driven by exports and fixed capital formation. Although the pace of growth was more robust than in the 1990´s, we can still witness the existence of certain macroeconomic constraints to its continuation in the long run such as, for instance, the exchange rate overvaluation in particular since 2005, and in general the modus operandi of monetary policy. Such constraints may jeopardize the sustainability of the current pace of growth. Therefore, we argue that Brazil still lies in a trap made up of high interest and low exchange rates. The elimination of the exchange rate misalignment would bring about a great increase in the rate of interest, which on its turn would impact negatively upon investment and hence upon the sustainability of long run economic growth. We outline a set of policy measures to eliminate such a trap, in particular, the adoption of an implicit target for the exchange rate, capital controls and the abandonment of the present regime of inflation targeting. Recent events seem to go in this direction.

Life expectancy and human capital investment: the arrival of AIDS treatment in Brazil

This paper provides microevidence on the relationship between life expectancy and educational investment decisions. Human capital theory predicts an increase in life expectancy should lead to an augmenting in schooling investment. This paper uses an unique data set on AIDS patients among Brazilian inhabitants in an attempt to estimate the impact of the arrival of Antiretroviral therapy (ART) on educational outcomes. The availability of ART offsets the negative relationship between vertical HIV-transmission and schooling, around 68% and 57% for elementary and high school completion, respectively. Robustness tests indicate the results are not driven by convergence effects.