Capital flows and monetary control under a domestic currency substitution regime: the recent Brazilian experience

The 90s have witnessed a resumption in capital flows to Latin America. due to the conjugation of low interest rates in the US and economic reforms in most LA countries. In Brazil. however. substantial capital flows have becn induced by the extremely high domestic interest rates practiced by the Central Bank as a measure of last reson given the absence of successful stabilization policies. These very high interest rates were needed to prevent capital flight in a context of a surprisingly stable inflation rate above 20% a month. and keep interest bearing govemment securities preferable to foreign assets as money substitutes. We carefully describe how this domestic currency substitution regime (interest bearing govemment securities are substituted for MIas cash holdings) requires the Central Bank to renounce aoy control over monerary aggregates. In this domestic currency substitution regime. hyperinflation is the most likely outcome of an isolated (i.e.. without fiscal adjusanents) attempt by the Brazilian Central Bank to control money.

Pricing the option adjust spread of Brazilian Eurobonds

This paper presents results of a pricing system to compute the option adjusted spread ("DAS") of Eurobonds issued by Brazilian firms. The system computes the "DAS" over US treasury rates taktng imo account the embedded options present on these bonds. These options can be calls ("callable bond"), puts ("putable bond") or combinations ("callable and putable bond"). The pricing model takes into account the evolution of the term structure along time, is compatible with the observable market term structure and is able to compute risk measures such as duration and convexity, and pricing and hedging of options on these bonds. Examples show the ejJects of the embedded options on the spread and risk measures as well as the ejJects on the spread due to variations on the volatility parameters ofthe short rate.

Avoiding some costs of inflation and crawling toward hyperinflation : the case of the Brazilian domestic currency substitute

The pattem of a classical hyperinflation is an acute acceleration of the inflation levei accompanied by rapid substitution away from domestic currency. Brazil, however, has becn experiencing inflation leveis well above 1,000% a year since 1988 without entering the classical hyperinflation path. Two elements play key roles in differcntiating the Brazilian case from other hyperinflationary experiences: indexation and the provision of a reliable domestic currency substitute, Le., the provision of liquidity to interest-bearing assets. This paper claims that the existence of this domestic currency substitute is lhe main source of both lhe inability of the Brazilian central bank to fight inflation and of the unwillingness of Brazilians to face the costs of such a fight. The provision of the domestic currency substitute through the banking sector is modeled, and the main macroeconomic consequences of this monetary regime are derived. Those are: the lack of a nominal anchor for the price system due to the passive monetary policy; the endogeneity of seignorage unlikc traditional models of hyperinflation; and lhe ineffectiveness of very high real interest rates.

Ownership, control and corporate valuation of Brazilian companies

We study the direct and indirect ownership structure of Brazilian corporations and their market value and risk by the end of 1996 and 1998. Ownership is quite concentrated with most companies being controlled by a single direct shareholder. We find evidence that indirect control structures may be used to concentrate control even more rather than to keep control of the company with a smaller share of total capital. The greater the concentration of voting rights then less the value of the fmn should be due to potential expropriation ofrninority shareholders. We fmd evidence that when there is a majority shareholder and when indirect ownership structures are used without the loss of control, corporate valuations are greater when control is dilluted through the indirect ownership structure. This evidence is consistent with the existence of private benefits of control that can be translated as potential minority shareholder expropriation.

Brazilian privatization : a decade of experience

In this paper we review the ten-year-old Brazilian experience with privatization. We start by describing the expansion in the last half century of the role played by state enterprises, and then the privatization effort in the Figueiredo and Sarney administrations. After that, we examine what haa changed with Collor and what the prospects for his privatization program are.

Avenues to success : electoral strategies and ambition in the Brazilian chamber of deputies

In the second consecutive election for the Brazilian Chamber ofDeputies, the majority of incumbents (75% in 1998 and again 75% in 2002) decided to run for reelection and at least 70% ofthem in both elections were successful, suggesting thus it would be incorrect to ignore static ambition as the main target of Brazilian legislators. It also raises doubts about the assertion that incumbents use their posts to pursue their post-Iegislative careers. However, this number also suggests that not alIlegislators seek reelection, indicating that it is also incorrect to assume alI of them are driven by similar motivations. In their attempts at career survival, incumbents may also run for higher offices (Senator, Governor, Vicegovernor). A minority still, may run for state leveI offices (regressive ambition).Given that static and progressive ambition are the two main types of career choice in Brazil, we focus on the factors that influence the career decision and electoral success of those who choose to run for reelection and those who choose to run for higher-level offices, i.e. senator and governor. We use data recently colIected from the 2002 elections.

Inferring conduct under the threat of entry : the case of Brazilian cement industry

This paper demonstrates that when an industry faces potential entry and this threat of entry constrains pre-entry prices, cost and conduct are not identified from the comparative statics of equilibrium. In such a setting, the identifying assumption behind the well-established technique of relying on exogenous demand perturbations to empirically distinguish between alternative hypotheses of conduct is shown to fail. The Brazilian cement industry, where the threat of imports restrains market outcomes, provides an empirical illustration. In particular, pricecost margins estimated using this established technique are considerably biased downward, underestimating the degree of market power. A test of conduct is proposed, adapted to this constrained setting, which suggests that outcomes in the industry are collusive and characterised by market division.

From public to private : the performance of former public workers in the Brazilian labor market

This paper analyzes the placement in the private sector of a subset of Brazilian public-sector employees. This group left public employment in the mid-1990’s through a voluntary severance program. This paper contrasts their earnings before and after quitting the public sector, and compares both sets of wages to public and private sector earnings for similar workers. We find that participants in this voluntary severance program suffered a significant reduction in average earnings wage and an increase in earnings dispersion. We test whether the reduction in average earnings and the increase in earnings dispersion is the expected outcome once one controls for observed characteristics, by means of counterfactual simulations. Several methods of controlling for observed characteristics (parametric and non-parametrically) are used for robustness. The results indicate that this group of workers was paid at levels below what would be expected given their embodied observable characteristics.

Economic landscapes, what are they? an application to the Brazilian economy and to the sugar cane complex

In assessing the economic impact of a sector or group of sectors on a single or multiregional economy, input-output analysis has proven to be a popular method. . However, there has a problem in displaying all the information that can be obtained from this analytical approach. In this paper, we have tried to set new directions in the use of input-output analysis by presenting an improved way of looking at the economic landscapes. While this is not a new concept, a new meaning is explored in this paper; essentially, it will now be possible to visualize, in a simple picture, all the relations in the economy as well as being able to view how one sector is related to the other sectors/regions in the economy. These relations can be measured in terms of structural changes, production, value added, employment, imports, etc. While all the possibilities cannot be explored in this paper, the basic idea is given here and the smart reader can uncover all the various possibilities. To illustrate the power of analysis provided by the economic landscapes, an application is made to the sugar cane complex using an interregional inputoutput system for the Brazilian economy, constructed for 2 regions (Northeast and Rest of Brazil), for the years of 1985, 1992, and 1995.

A risk management approach to emerging market's sovereign debt sustainability with an application to Brazilian data

In this paper we study the question of debt sustainability from a risk management perspective. The debt accumulation equation for any country involves variables that are stochastic and closely intertwined. When these aspects are taken into consideration the notion of debt sustainability is expanded to studying the stochastic properties of the debt dynamics. We illustrate the methodology by studying the Brazilian case. We find that even though the debt could be sustainable in the absence of risk, there are paths in which it is clearly unsustainable. Furthermore, we show that properties of the debt dynamics are closely related to the spreads on sovereign dollar denominated debt.

Tax reform under fiscal stress: a CGE analysis of the Brazilian tax reform

In spite of a general agreement over the distortion imposed by the current Brazilian tax system, attempts to reform it during the last decade have faced several restrictions to its implementation. Two of these restrictions were particular binding: a) fiscal adjustment restriction (public sector debt cannot increase), b) fiscal federalist restriction (revenues from individual states and municipalities cannot decrease). This paper focuses on a specific reform that overcomes in principle the fiscal federalist restriction. Using Auerbach and Kotlikoff (1987) model calibrated for the Brazilian economy, I analyze the short and long run macroeconomic effects of this reform subject to the fiscal adjustment restriction. Finally, I look at the redistributive effects of this reform among generations as a way to infer about public opinion’s reaction to the reform. The reform consists basically of replacing indirect taxes on corporate revenues, which I show to be equivalent to a symmetric tax on labor and capital income, by a new federal VAT. The reform presented positive macroeconomic effects both in the short and long run. Despite a substantial increase in the average VAT rate in the first years after the reform, a majority of cohorts experienced an increase in their lifetime welfare, being potentially in favour of the reform.

Flypaper effect revisited : evidence for tax collection efficiency in Brazilian municipalities

This paper has two purposes. First, to construct efficiency scores in tax collection for Brazilian municipalities in 2004, taking into consideration two outputs: amount of per capita local tax collected -tax revenue- and the size of local informal economy- tax base. This methodology eliminates the price- effect of tax collection. Second, using the rules established on the Brazilian Constitution in 1988 to transfer unconditional funds among municipalities as instrument, to estimate the relationship between intergovernmental transfers and efficiency in tax collection. We conclude that transfers affect negatively the efficiency in tax collection, leading to a reinterpretation of the flypaper effect.

Comparing equilibrium real interest rates : different approaches to measure Brazilian rates

Despite the difficulties involved in the precise determination of equilibrium real interest rates, it seems clear that nominal interest rates has been higher in Brazil than in similar emerging economies. This paper aims to shed light on the possible reasons for this feature of the Brazilian economy. We extend Miranda and Muinhos (2003) one-country study to a sample of 20 countries, using many methods to compare measures of the real interest: (i) extracting equilibrium interest rates from IS curves; (ii) extracting steady state interest rates from marginal product of capital; (iii) capturing relevant variables and the fixed effects having real interest rates as dependent variable in a panel for emerging countries; and (iv) extracting inflation expectation from the spread between fixed rate and inflation-indexed treasure notes.