Testing consumption optimality using aggregate data

This paper tests the optimality of consumption decisions at the aggregate level taking into account popular deviations from the canonical constant-relative-risk-aversion (CRRA) utility function model-rule of thumb and habit. First, based on the critique in Carroll (2001) and Weber (2002) of the linearization and testing strategies using euler equations for consumption, we provide extensive empirical evidence of their inappropriateness - a drawback for standard rule- of-thumb tests. Second, we propose a novel approach to test for consumption optimality in this context: nonlinear estimation coupled with return aggregation, where rule-of-thumb behavior and habit are special cases of an all encompassing model. We estimated 48 euler equations using GMM. At the 5% level, we only rejected optimality twice out of 48 times. Moreover, out of 24 regressions, we found the rule-of-thumb parameter to be statistically significant only twice. Hence, lack of optimality in consumption decisions represent the exception, not the rule. Finally, we found the habit parameter to be statistically significant on four occasions out of 24.

What happens after the Central Bank of Brazil increases the target interbank rate by 1%?

In this paper I use Taylor's (2001) model and Vector Auto Regressions to shed some light on the evolution of some key macroeconomic variables after the Central Bank of Brazil, through the COPOM, increases the target interest rate by 1%. From a quantitative perspective, the best estimate from the empírical analysis, obtained with a 1994 : 2 - 2004 : 2 subsample of the data, is that GDP goes through an accumulated decline, over the next four years, around 0.08%. Innovations to interest rates explain around 9.2% of the forecast erro r of GDP.

The forward and the equity premium puzzles: two symptoms of the same illness?

The Forward Premium Puzzle (FPP) is how the empirical observation of a negative relation between future changes in the spot rates and the forward premium is known. Modeling this forward bias as a risk premium and under weak assumptions on the behavior of the pricing kernel, we characterize the potential bias that is present in the regressions where the FPP is observed and we identify the necessary and sufficient conditions that the pricing kernel has to satisfy to account for the predictability of exchange rate movements. Next, we estimate the pricing kernel applying two methods: i) one, du.e to Araújo et aI. (2005), that exploits the fact that the pricing kernel is a serial correlation common feature of asset prices, and ii) a traditional principal component analysis used as a procedure 1;0 generate a statistical factor modeI. Then, using on the sample and out of the sample exercises, we are able to show that the same kernel that explains the Equity Premi um Puzzle (EPP) accounts for the FPP in all our data sets. This suggests that the quest for an economic mo deI that generates a pricing kernel which solves the EPP may double its prize by simultaneously accounting for the FPP.

Monopoly power and trade protection: cross- industry evidence

This paper investigates the impact of industry concentration on trade policy. Annual panel-databases of Brazilian industries for the years 1988 through 1994 were used. The regressions reported here are robust to openness indicator. concentration index, control variables and sample size, and suggest that the higher the concentration of a given industry the higher its leveI of trade protection. In the period of study the country experienced a major trade liberalization, but the results in the paper show that the reduction in protection was smaller in more concentrated sectors. Assuming that concentration is ;1 gCl()d proX\' for mOllopoh' po\\'er as it reduces the free-rider problem in coordinating a lobby the results in this paper indicates that interest groups with control over specific markets in fact are able to obtain policy advantages that reduce (international) competition.

Um estudo sobre os impactos da surpresa dos indicadores macroeconômicos de atividade e inflação no mercado futuro brasileiro de juros

As diretrizes de política monetária são definidas com base em resultados dos indicadores macroeconômicos divulgados ao mercado periodicamente. Os agentes deste mercado respondem rapidamente às alterações de cenário, com o objetivo de obter lucro ou evitar perdas financeiras expressivas. Com este motivacional, a proposta deste trabalho é avaliar como reage o mercado futuro de juros diante da divulgação de surpresas em determinados indicadores macroeconômicos, propondo um indicador de surpresa agregado para prever os impactos causados. Através dos dados extraídos da Bloomberg e da BM&F Bovespa, foi construída uma base de dados simplificada pela adoção de premissas para mensuração do impacto das surpresas divulgadas no preço do DI Futuro. A padronização dos parâmetros, a realização dos testes de média e as regressões otimizadas pelo método OLS possibilitaram ponderar os indicadores econômicos de acordo com a oscilação que os mesmos causam a este mercado. Por fim, o teste de comparação mostrou que o indicador de surpresa proposto foi mais eficiente nas previsões da reação do mercado do que um indicador que pondere de forma igualitária todos os indicadores macroeconômicos.

International integration and long- run persistence of the GNP distribution

We use the Ramsey model of g,Towth elaborated by Bliss [1995] and Ventlira [1997] to show how international integration results in long-nm persistellce Df GNPs distribution, while allowing, under certain conditions on parameters, for convergellce during the transition. First, we pi·ovide relationships which explicitly relate, in the neighborhood of the steady-state, the magnitude of conditional convergence or divergence to the fundamentaIs of the economies. Second, we present ali analysis of the Cobb Douglas case with a broad dass of utility functions and show that there is always transitional convergenee with this technology. Third, directions for testing the Illodel against the traditional dosed-ecollomy setting are proposed. These lead to adding specific and world-wide regTessors to traditional growth regressions.

"Desesperança de vida: homicídio em Minas Gerais , Rio de Janeiro e São Paulo: 1981 a 1997"

This paper studies the male homicide rate and its relation to economic variables in the states of Minas Gerais, São Paulo e Rio de Janeiro between 1981 and 1997. The novelty of our approach is the construction of homicide rates specific for each age between 15 and 40 years old. The economic variables' coefficients are significant1y different from zero for the population between 15 and 19 years old. As expected, an increase in real wage and a decrease in inequality reduce the rate of homicide. Surprisingly, a decrease in the unemployment rate seems to increase the rate ofhomicide. Most coefficients, however, converge to zero as a generation gets older, becoming non-significant for the population aged 20 years old or more. We also identify an inertia component in the homicide rate: generations with higher homicide rates when young also tend to have higher homicide rates over the remain of their life cycle. Therefore, if economic variables induce a high rate of homicide among young people in a certain year, this high rate tend to persist over the generation life cycle independent1y of the economy later behavior. Regressions are performed using a reformulation of the standard Logit model that incorporates a lagged dependent variable.

The distribution of male wages in Brazil

This paper examines the evolution of wage inequality in Brazil in the 1980s and 1990s . It tries to investigate the role played by changing economic returns to education and to experience over this period together with the evolution of within-group inequality. It applies a quantile regression approach on grouped data to the Brazilian case. Results using repeated cross-sections of a Brazilian annual household survey indicate that : i) Male wage dispersion remained basically constant overall in the 1980's and 1990' s but has increased substantially within education and age groups. ii) Returns to experience increased significantly over this period, with the rise concentrated on the iliterate/primary school group iii) Returns to college education have risen over time, whereas return to intermediate and high-school education have fallen iv) The apparent rise in within-group inequality seems to be the result of a fall in real wages, since the difference in wage leveIs has dec1ined substantially over the period, especially within the high-educated sample. v) Returns to experience rise with education. vi) Returns to education rise over the life-cycle. vii) Wage inequality increases over the life-cycle. The next step i~ this research will try to conciliate all these stylised facts.

Dynamics of micro-entrepeneurial activities

This paper generates and organizes stylized facts related to the dynamics of selfemployment activities in Brazil. The final purpose is to help the design of policies to assist micro-entrepreneurial units. The 'first part of the paper uses as a main tool of analysis transitional data constructed from household surveys. The longitudinal information used covers three transition horizons: 1-month, 12-month and 5-year periods. Quantitative flows analysis assesses the main origins, destinies and various types of risks assumed by microentrepreneurial activities. Complementarily, logistic regressions provides evidence on the main characteristics and resources of micro-entrepreneurial units. In particular, we use the movements from self-employment to employer activities as measures of entrepreneurial success. We also use these transitions as measures of employment creation intensity within the self-employed segment.The second part of the paper explores various data sources. First, we attempt to analyze the life-cycle trajectories and determinants of self-employment. We use cohort data constructed from PME and qualitative data on financial and work history factors related to the opening of small bussiness from the informal firms survey implemented during 1994. Second, we apply a standart Mincerian wage equation approach to self-employment profits. This exerci se attempts to capture the correlation patterns between micro-entrepreneurial performance and a variety of firms leveI variables present in the 1994 Informal Survey. Finally, we use a a survey on the poor enterpreneurs of Rocinha favela as a laboratory to study poor entrepreneurs resources and behavior.In sum, the main questions pursued in the paper are: i) who are the Brazilian selfemployed?; ii) in particular: what is relative importance among the self-employed of subsistence activities versus those activities with growth and capital accumulation potential?; iii) what are the main static and dynamic determinants ofmicro-entrepreneurial success?; iv) what is the degree ofrisk associated with micro-entrepreneurial activities in Brazil?; v) What is the life-cycle profile of self-employment?; vi) what are the main constraints on poor entrepreneurs activities?.

Do borrowing constraints decrease intergenerational mobility? evidence from Brazil

In this paper, we find evidence that suggests that borrowing constraints may be an important determinant of intergenerational mobility in Brazil. This result contrasts sharply with studies for developed countries, such as Canada and the US, where credit constraints do not seem to play an important role in generating persistence of inequality. Moreover, we find that the social mobility is lower in Brazil in comparison with developed countries. We follow the methodology proposed by Grawe (2001), which uses quantile regression, and obtain two results. First, the degree of intergenerational persistence is greater for the upper quantiles. Second, the degree of intergenerational persistence declines with income at least for the upper quantiles. Both findings are compatible with the presence of borrowing constraints affecting the degree of intergenerational persistence, as predicted by the theory.

Coordenação no sistema agroindustrial da borracha natural : um estudo das relações entre produtores rurais e usinas beneficiadoras paulistas

O enfoque da Nova Economia Institucional é utilizado no estudo de sistemas agroindustriais brasileiros, mas ainda há poucos trabalhos sobre as relações entre produtores rurais e indústrias processadoras. O objetivo deste estudo é aferir o alinhamento das características das transações com os modos de governança adotados na comercialização de borracha natural entre produtores rurais e indústrias de beneficiamento primário. Busca-se confrontar os resultados com as previsões da teoria da Economia dos Custos de Transação, que prevê a adoção da governança mais eficiente, contingenciada ao ambiente transacional. Esta pesquisa utiliza um enfoque pioneiro para o setor. A primeira parte consiste na exploração qualitativa das transações entre produtores rurais e usinas beneficiadoras e na descrição dos elementos que compõe o sistema agroindustrial da borracha natural no Estado de São Paulo. Os resultados desta etapa são utilizados para refinar as hipóteses da etapa quantitativa, que relacionam os modos de governança adotados aos investimentos em ativos específicos, como o plantio de seringueiras, à frequência, à incerteza e à assistência técnica associadas à transação. Os resultados, apesar das limitações devido ao tamanho pequeno da amostra, sugerem que a quantidade de borracha comercializada influi positivamente na adoção de modos de governança mais coordenados e que a recorrência das transações provavelmente está associada a contratos relacionais. A hipótese da endogeneidade é rejeitada.

Um estudo sobre a capacidade de gestores de fundos multigestor adicionarem valor aos cotistas

Com o aumento do número de gestores especializados em um número cada vez maior de possibilidades de investimentos na indústria de fundos brasileira, os fundos Multigestor se tornaram uma alternativa para os investidores que procuram diversificar seus investimentos e delegam às instituições financeiras o trabalho de alocar os recursos dentro das diferentes estratégias e fundos existentes no mercado. O intuito deste estudo é avaliar a capacidade de gerar retornos anormais (alfa) dos fundos de fundos da indústria brasileira, classificados como Fundos Multimercados Multigestor. Para isso foi estudada uma amostra com 1.421 fundos Multigestor com tributação de Longo Prazo no período de janeiro de 2005 a dezembro de 2011. A análise dos resultados encontrados através de regressões de modelos de vários fatores, derivados do modelo de Jensen (1968), sugere que apenas 3,03% dos fundos estudados conseguem adicionar valor a seus cotistas. Foram estudadas ainda as três principais fontes potenciais de geração de alfa dos fundos de fundos, a escolha das estratégias que compõe a carteira do fundo (alocação estratégica), a antecipação de movimentos de mercado (market timing) e a capacidade selecionar os melhores fundos dentro de cada estratégia (seleção de fundos). A partir da inclusão de termos quadráticos, conforme proposto pelos modelos de Treynor e Mazuy (1966) pode-se verificar que os fundos Multigestor, em média, não conseguem adicionar valor tentando antecipar movimentos de mercado (market timing). Através da construção de uma variável explicativa com a composição estratégica de cada fundo da amostra em cada período de tempo, pode-se verificar que os gestores de fundos de fundos, em média, também fracassam ao tentar selecionar os melhores fundos/gestores da indústria. Já a escolha das estratégias que compõe a carteira do fundo (alocação estratégica) mostrou contribuir positivamente para o retorno dos fundos. Ainda foi avaliada a capacidade de gerar alfa antes dos custos, o que elevou o percentual de fundos com alfa positivo para 6,39% dos fundos estudados, mas foi incapaz de alterar o sinal do alfa médio, que permaneceu negativo.

Nonparametric tail risk, macroeconomics and stock returns: predictability and risk premia

This paper proposes a new novel to calculate tail risks incorporating risk-neutral information without dependence on options data. Proceeding via a non parametric approach we derive a stochastic discount factor that correctly price a chosen panel of stocks returns. With the assumption that states probabilities are homogeneous we back out the risk neutral distribution and calculate five primitive tail risk measures, all extracted from this risk neutral probability. The final measure is than set as the first principal component of the preliminary measures. Using six Fama-French size and book to market portfolios to calculate our tail risk, we find that it has significant predictive power when forecasting market returns one month ahead, aggregate U.S. consumption and GDP one quarter ahead and also macroeconomic activity indexes. Conditional Fama-Macbeth two-pass cross-sectional regressions reveal that our factor present a positive risk premium when controlling for traditional factors.

Consumption-wealth ratio and expected stock returns: evidence from panel data

This paper investigates the role of consumption-wealth ratio on predicting future stock returns through a panel approach. We follow the theoretical framework proposed by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), in which a model derived from a nonlinear consumer’s budget constraint is used to settle the link between consumption-wealth ratio and stock returns. Using G7’s quarterly aggregate and financial data ranging from the first quarter of 1981 to the first quarter of 2014, we set an unbalanced panel that we use for both estimating the parameters of the cointegrating residual from the shared trend among consumption, asset wealth and labor income, cay, and performing in and out-of-sample forecasting regressions. Due to the panel structure, we propose different methodologies of estimating cay and making forecasts from the one applied by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001). The results indicate that cay is in fact a strong and robust predictor of future stock return at intermediate and long horizons, but presents a poor performance on predicting one or two-quarter-ahead stock returns.

Employer branding : elementos relevantes na intenção de permanecer: estudo exploratório com estagiários

Atrair e reter talentos por meio de salários inflacionados pode ser oneroso e não necessariamente efetivo. A atividade de Employer Branding (EB), que consiste nos esforços das empresas em promover características e atributos que as tornem diferentes e desejáveis como empregadoras, começa a despertar o interesse tanto das empresas quanto dos pesquisadores de Recursos Humanos e Práticas de Gestão. À luz da recente e escassa literatura internacional, este estudo exploratório buscou identificar quais aspectos do Employer Branding são mais importantes para os indivíduos na intenção de permanecer em uma empresa após o período de estágio. As análises consideraram 443 questionários respondidos por estagiários de uma empresa multinacional de grande porte do setor financeiro, utilizando-se a escala de atratividade do empregador (Berthon et al., 2005), que considera cinco dimensões do Employer Branding: desenvolvimento, social, interesse, aplicação e econômica. Testes estatísticos permitiram afirmar que variáveis demográficas como gênero, tipo de custeio da faculdade (público ou privado) e nível de responsabilidade financeira influenciam na maneira como os indivíduos valorizam cada uma das dimensões. Além disso, ainda que de forma geral todas as dimensões tenham sido consideradas importantes, os resultados da Regressão Logística para a intenção de permanecer permitiram observar que, para a amostra, as questões financeiras destacam-se das demais variáveis. Por fim, a análise dos dados revela aspectos que podem servir de insumo para propostas de readequação de discurso e/ou readequação de práticas por empresas pretendam atrair e reter, com eficiência, estagiários para seu quadro de colaboradores. Além disso, os resultados desta pesquisa contribuem para a teoria ao discutir as categorizações existentes para dimensões do Employer Branding e ao sugerir que há espaço para que novas classificações sejam propostas.