Social security effects on income distribution: a counterfactual analysis for Brazil

According to Diamond (1977), one of the reasons for the existence of social security systems is that they function as an income redistribution mechanism. There is an extensive literature that tests whether social security systems produce the desired results in developed countries (mainly for the U.S.A.). Nevertheless, there is not an obvious consensus about this social security property and there is little evidence for developing countries. In this article, we test this property for the Brazilian Social Security System. In addition, we also look at another question which has not been answered yet in the previous literature. Is the trend of social security systems increasingly progressive or regressive? We conclude that the changes in Brazilian Social Security legislation reduced inequality between 1987 and 1996, but only for the elderly. For the other age groups, there is a stable trend. Results for the period between 1996 and 2006 reveal that the Brazilian system is neutral for all cohorts. Therefore, we found out that social security systems are not an effective mechanism for income redistribution, as predicted by previous studies.

A theoretical connection between inflation and income inequality

This work investigates the effects of inflation on income distribution. We use a dynamic shopping-time model to show that a differentiated access to transacting technologies by poor and rich consumers is enough to generate a positive link between inflation and the Gini coefficient of income distribution.

Measurements of income inequality: a critique. Inflation and income inequality: a link through the job- search process

In this paper I claim that, in a long-run perspective, measurements of income inequality, under any of the usual inequality measures used in the literature, are upward biased. The reason is that such measurements are cross-sectional by nature and, therefore, do not take into consideration the turnover in the job market which, in the long run, equalizes within-group (e.g., same-education groups) inequalities. Using a job-search model, I show how to derive the within-group invariant-distribution Gini coefficient of income inequality, how to calculate the size of the bias and how to organize the data in arder to solve the problem. Two examples are provided to illustrate the argument.

Neighborhood feedbacks, endogenous stratification, and income inequality

This paper explores the evolution of the cross-section income distribution in economies where endogenous neighborhood formation interacts with positive within-neighborhood feedback effects. We study an economy in which the economic success of adults is determined by the characteristics of the families in the neighborhood in which a person grows up. These feedbacks take two forms. First, the tax base of a neighborhood affects the leveI of education investment in offspring. Second, the effectiveness of education investment is affected by a neighborhood's in come distribution, reflecting factors such as role model or labor market connection effects. Conditions are developed under which endogenous stratification, defined as the tendency for families wi th similar incomes to choose to form common communities, will occur. When families are allowed to choose their neighborhoods, wealthy families will have an incentive to segregate themselves from the rest of the population. This resulting stratification is supported by house price differences between ricli and poor communities. Endogenous stratification can lead to pronounced intertemporal inequality as different families provide very different interaction environments for offspring. When the transformation of human capital into in come exhibits constant retums to scale, cross-section in come differences may also grow across time. As a result, endogenous stratification and neighborhood feedbacks can interact to produce long run inequality.

The impact on the stationary state income of a pay-as-you-go system of social security

A model of overlapping generations in continuous time is composed. IndividuaIs pass through two distinct time periods during their life times. During the first period, they work, save and have a death probability equal to zero. During the second, from the periods T after birth, their probability of death changes to p and then they retire. Capital stock and the stationary state in come are calculated for two situations: in the first, people live from their accumulated capital after retirementj in the second, they live from a state transfer payment through income taxo To simplify matters, in this preliminary version, it is supposed that there is no population growth and that the instantaneous elasticity substitution of consumption is unitary.

Income composition, endogenous fertility and schooling investments in children

This paper studies how the eomposition of ineome between mothers and fathers affeets fertility and sehooling investments in ehildren, using data from the 1976 and 1996 PNAD, a Brazilian household survey. Ineome composition affeets the time eost of fertility because mothers and fathers alloeate different amounts of time to child-rearing. These effects are in turn transmitted to investments in ehildren through a tradeoffbetween quantity and quality of ehildren. The main contribution of this paper is twofold. First, it derives new implications about the relationship between household ineome composition and schooling investments in ehildren. Seeond, this paper devises and implements an empirieal approaeh to assess these implieations, using two eross-seetions of fertility and schooling data from Brazil. The main empirical findings of the paper ean be summarized as follows. First, the empirical analysis shows that a larger negative effect of the mother's labor in come on fertility in 1996 is associated with a larger positive effect on the adult child's schooling, refleeting the interaction between quantity and quality of children. Second, the larger negative effect of the mother's labor income on fertility in 1996 is associated with a reduction in the effect of other determinants of number of children. This suggests that an increase in the relative importanee of time costs of fertility may be an important determinant of variations in fertility over time in Brazil and other developing countries .

On the optimality of the Friedman Rule with heterogeneous agents and non-linear income taxation

We study the optimal “inflation tax” in an environment with heterogeneous agents and non-linear income taxes. We first derive the general conditions needed for the optimality of the Friedman rule in this setup. These general conditions are distinct in nature and more easily interpretable than those obtained in the literature with a representative agent and linear taxation. We then study two standard monetary specifications and derive their implications for the optimality of the Friedman rule. For the shopping-time model the Friedman rule is optimal with essentially no restrictions on preferences or transaction technologies. For the cash-credit model the Friedman rule is optimal if preferences are separable between the consumption goods and leisure, or if leisure shifts consumption towards the credit good. We also study a generalized model which nests both models as special cases.

Monopoly rights can reduce income big time

We study a two–sector version of the neoclassical growth model with coalitions of factor suppliers in the capital producing sectors. We show that if the coalitions have monopoly rights, then they block the adoption of the efficient technology. We also show that blocking leads to a decrease in the productivity of each capital producing sector and to an increase in the relative price of capital; as a result the capital stock and the production fall in each sector. We finally show that the implied fall in the level of per–capita income can be large quantitatively.

Financial frictions, informality and income inequality

We studied the effects of changes in banking spreads on distributions of income, wealth and consumption as well as the welfare of the economy. This analysis was based on a model of heterogeneous agents with incomplete markets and occupational choice, in which the informality of firms and workers is a relevant transmission channel. The main finding is that reductions in spreads for firms increase the proportion of entrepreneurs and formal workers in the economy, thereby decreasing the size of the informal sector. The effects on inequality, however, are ambiguous and depend on wage dynamics and government transfers. Reductions in spreads for individuals lead to a reduction in inequality indicators at the expense of consumption and aggregate welfare. By calibrating the model to Brazil for the 2003-2012 period, it is possible to find results in line with the recent drop in informality and the wage gap between formal and informal workers

Essays on economic growth

A fundamental question in development economics is why some economies are rich and others poor. To illustrate the income per capita gap across economies consider that the average gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of the richest 10 percent of economies in the year 2010 was a factor of 40-fold that of the poorest 10 percent of economies. In other words, the average person in a rich economy produces in just over 9 days what the average person in a poor economy produces in an entire year. What are the factors that can explain this difference in standard of living across the world today? With this in view, this dissertation is a conjunction of three essays on the economic growth field which we seek a possible responses to this question. The first essay investigates the existence of resource misallocation in the Brazilian manufacturing sector and measures possible distortions in it. Using a similar method of measurement to the one developed by Hsieh and Klenow (2009) and firm-level data for 1996-2011 we find evidence of misallocation in the manufacturing sector during the observed period. Moreover, our results show that misallocation has been growing since 2005, and it presents a non-smooth dynamic. Significantly, we find that the Brazilian manufacturing sector operates at about 50% of its efficient product. With this, if capital and labor were optimally reallocated between firms and sectors we would obtain an aggregate output growth of approximately 110-180% depending on the mode in which the capital share is measured. We also find that the economic crisis did not have a substantial effect on the total productivity factor or on the sector's misallocation. However, small firms in particular seem to be strongly affected in a global crisis. Furthermore, the effects described would be attenuated if we consider linkages and complementarity effects among sectors. Despite Brazil's well-known high tax burden, there is not evidence that this is the main source of resource misallocation. Moreover, there is a distinct pattern of structural change between the manufacturing sectors in industrialized countries and those in developing countries. Therefore, the second essay demonstrate that this pattern differs because there are some factors that distort the relative prices and also affect the output productivity. For this, we present a multi-sector model of economic growth, where distortions affect the relative prices and the allocation of inputs. This phenomenon imply that change of the production structure or perpetuation of the harmful structures to the growth rate of aggregate output. We also demonstrate that in an environment with majority decision, this distortion can be enhanced and depends on the initial distribution of firms. Furthermore, distortions in relative prices would lead to increases in the degree of misallocation of resources, and that imply that there are distinct patterns of structural changes between economies. Finally, the calibrated results of the framework developed here converge with the structural change observed in the firm-level data of the Brazilian manufacturing sector. Thereafter, using a cross-industry cross-country approach, the third essay investigates the existence of an optimal level of competition to enhance economic growth. With that in mind, we try to show that this optimal level is different from industrialized and under development economies due to the technology frontier distance, the terms of trade, and each economy's idiosyncratic characteristics. Therefore, the difference in competition industry-country level is a channel to explain the output for worker gap between countries. The theoretical and empirical results imply the existence of an inverted-U relationship between competition and growth: starting for an initially low level of competition, higher competition stimulates innovation and output growth; starting from a high initial level of competition, higher competition has a negative effect on innovation and output growth. Given on average industries in industrialized economies present higher competition level. With that if we control for the terms of trade and the industry-country fixed effect, if the industries of the developing economy operated under the same competition levels as of the industrialized ones, there is a potential increase of output of 0.2-1.0% per year. This effect on the output growth rate depends on the competition measurement used.

Wealth composition, endogenous fertility and the dynamics of income inequality

This paper analyzes how differences in the composition of wealth between human and physical capital among families affect fertility choices. These in tum influence the dynamics of wealth and income inequality across generations through a tradeoffbetween quantity and quality of children. Wealth composition affects fertility because physical capital has only a wealth effect on number of children, whereas human capital increases the time cost of child-rearing in addition to the wealth effect. I construct a model combining endogenous fertility with borrowing constraints in human capital investments, in which weaIth composition is determined endogenously. The model is calibrated to the PNAD, a Brazilian household survey, and the main findings of the paper can be summarized as follows. First, the model implies that the crosssection relationship between fertility and wealth typically displays a U-shaped pattem, reflecting differences in wealth composition between poor and rich families. Also, the quantity-quality tradeoff implies a concave cross-section relationship between investments per child and wealth. Second, as the economy develops and families overcome their bOlTowing constraints, the negative effect of weaIth on fertility becomes smaller, and persistence of inequality declines accordingly. The empirical evidence presented in this paper is consistent with both implications .

Dreaming up the right career: an exploratory study of the career aspirations of low-income adolescents living in urban São Paulo

No Brasil, os jovens de baixa renda estão propensos ao desemprego, o que é particularmente problemático em uma economia emergente onde a desigualdade de renda é relativamente alta, e onde o desenvolvimento socioeconômico futuro pode depender do crescimento e da estabilidade de uma classe média já vulnerável. Além disso, o desemprego entre os jovens, especialmente em cidades urbanas, está associado a elevada incidência de violência, comportamento ilegal, aumento da desigualdade e instabilidade sociopolítica. Este estudo complementa tentativas existentes de promover as perspectivas de emprego da juventude brasileira, investigando as aspirações profissionais de 25 adolescentes que vivem em comunidades de baixa renda na zona urbana de São Paulo. A pesquisa foi realizada através de grupos de foco durante o período de quatro encontros nas comunidades paulistanas de Vila Albertina, Heliópolis, Vila Prudente e Vila Nova Esperança. Os resultados da pesquisa repetem, em grande parte, o conhecimento existente que diz respeito a adolescentes; eles confirmam o papel importante que o mérito individual, o microambiente e os modelos exemplares (isto é, familiares, colegas e educadores locais) têm de moldar e possibilitar (ou impedir) os planos de carreira de jovens adultos, e destacam a flexibilidade e a diversidade de interesses profissionais nesta faixa etária. Ademais, os resultados revelam atitudes paradoxais face às comunidades de baixa renda em São Paulo. Todos os participantes pareciam empoderados por elementos dentro de seu microambiente, exibiam sentimentos de orgulho e que faziam parte de sua comunidade; porém, muitos pareciam perturbados pela maneira como pessoas de fora estereotipam ou estigmatizam os moradores da "favela". Ao todo, o estudo destaca tendências que sustentam razões para maiores investimentos no desenvolvimento profissional dos jovens de baixa renda. Na qualidade de um ecossistema com potencial para desenvolvimento socioeconômico, as comunidades de baixa renda podem constituir uma fonte rica não apenas de recursos humanos, mas também de oportunidades comerciais e empregos.