Indicadores macroeconômicos e planejamento estratégico: uma percepção dos altos executivos brasileiros

The work studies the use of macroeconomic indicators in strategic planning, considering the perception of senior Brazilian executives. Strategic planning is a management process of great importance within companies of all sizes and sectors. Good planning drives the company in the right direction, helping so she can anticipate the threats and make a diagnosis of opportunities and improvements. Macroeconomic indicators mainly represent data and / or signaling information behavior (individual or integrated) of the different variables and phenomenon components of an economic system of a country, region or state. These play a key role both to provide a better understanding of the present situation and the design of shortterm trends in the economy, and to support the process of making strategic decisions of public officials (government) and private (businesses and consumers). The design of the research followed a qualitative-quantitative model, conducting 12 semi-structured interviews, followed by conducting a survey to 416 companies operating in Brazil. As a result of research it was concluded that top executives know the importance of using macroeconomic indicators in strategic planning, and other accompaniments and decisions of companies, and point out that is not yet fully incorporated into the strategic planning process, running today, in most companies, only as a source of information and confirmation. The analysis of the two variables, from the perspective of senior executives resulted in the highlighted two other interesting variables for future work: trust and Brazilian culture.

On the effects of non tariff measures on Brazilian exports

This article proposes an alternative methodology for estimating the effects of non-tariff measures on trade flows, based on the recent literature on gravity models. A two-stage Heckman selection model is applied to the case of Brazilian exports, where the second stage gravity equation is theoretically grounded on the seminal Melitz model of heterogeneous firms. This extended gravity equation highlights the role played by zero trade flows as well as firm heterogeneity in explaining bilateral trade among countries, two factors usually omitted in traditional gravity specifications found in previous literature. Last, it also proposes a economic rationale for the effects of NTM on trade flows, helping to shed some light on its main operating channels under a rather simple Cournot’s duopolistic competition framework

Ecommerce as internationalization strategy: an exploratory study based on premium fashion brazilian brands: case study of farfetch

As stated by Hoffmann and Coste-Manière (2012) “The web is a mass medium that contrast completely with the traditional codes of exclusivity associated with the luxury industry, and has long been simply rejected by the luxury industry for being an illegitimate distribution channel.” Meanwhile this market presents an incomparable pace of growth and is gradually changing the existing retailing business model and companies must be aware of this change and capable to adapt to it. The internet and cross-border sales already changed the competition throughout retailing and it will increase even more, so companies must be ready to face it. Internet has shown its great opportunity for all markets, although luxury/premium market is not yet taking the proper advantage of its potential, but the necessity to be an omnichannel business strategy is growing. This paper presents an exploratory research based on a case study of how premium fashion Brazilian brands are using Farfetch, e-commerce, as an entry market strategy and how this affects them. The research question of this study is: How is Farfetch helping on the internationalization of Brazilian premium fashion brands?, and in order to answer it was conducted an in-depth interview with the Brazilian head of business development of Farfetch, apart an extensive secondary data research. As expected the study found a list of trade-offs of using an e-commerce, luxury specialized, with a marketplace approach to the brands willing to internationalize. As stated by Altagamma and McKinsey (2015) study “[...] luxury brands have no choice but to embrace the digital era and become truly omnichannel. This will require them a radical rethinking of both their customer experience of their consumer engagement strategy.” Looking either from the Farfetch point of view, trying to understand why they offer this opportunity to the brands, or also from the brand side if this is a manageable approach. This study presents a contribution for both sides, trying to give tools to the brands on understanding the internationalization reasons and approach, as well as explaining Farfetch business model, and the advantages it can bring to them, at the same time of a general market trend analysis for Farfecth.

Cabinet composition and assessment of a multiparty presidential system

This doctoral dissertation provides a detailed analysis of the Brazilian cabinet according to the concepts of a multiparty presidential system. Appointing politicians as ministers is one of the most important coalition-building tools and has been widely used by minority presidents. This dissertation will therefore analyze the high-level Brazilian national bureaucracy between 1995 and 2014. It argues that the ministries – or departments – are not equal, and that allied parties therefore take into account the different characteristics of a ministry when demanding positions as a patronage strategy or for use as other kinds of political assets. After reviewing the literature on the theme, followed by a comparative analysis of the Brazilian, Chilean, Mexican, and Guatemalan cabinets, all the Brazilian ministries will be weighed and ranked on a scale that is able to measure their political importance and attractiveness. This rank takes into account variables such as the budgetary power, the ability to spend money according the ministers’ will, the ability to hire new employees, the ministries’ influence over other governmental agents such as companies, agencies, and so on, the ministers’ tenure in office. Finally, a proxy is provided that seeks to identify the normative power a department may hold. All of these characteristics will then be taken into account in considering the representatives’ opinion, thus helping to ascertain whether the cabinet appointment has been coalescent among the several parties that belong to the president’s coalition.

Financial governance: the Brazilian experience on prudential regulation and its impacts on the effects of the 2008 financial crisis

The Brazilian economy was severely hit by the 2008 crisis. In the beginning of the crisis, the vast majorities of the economic agents and authorities thought that Brazil could face some sort of decoupling since some macroeconomic fundamentals were very good. What we saw, however, was that the Brazilian economy was not decoupled, and expectations faced a huge deterioration soon after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 15th. Two aspects regarding the impact of crisis in Brazil, however, deserve a great deal of attention: (a) although deep, the impact did not last for a long time. Actually, the GDP growth experienced a good recovery in the second quarter of 2009, showing that the health of the Brazilian economy was good; (b) the Brazilian banking system performed very well during the crisis, although we cannot say the system was not in danger in the worst time of the crisis. In spite of the confidence crisis faced by the banking system 1, it showed a great deal of resilience. In this aspect, we argue that the restructure faced by the banking system in the aftermath of the Real Plan, as well as the development of a solid supervision regulation helped a lot the system to avoid the systemic crisis that was an open possibility to the Brazilian banking system in the end of 2008. These notes, thus, discusse why the Brazilian banking system performed pretty well in the 2008 financial crisis and how the Brazilian banking (and prudential) regulation can be taken as responsible for this good performance. More specifically, the paper back to the middle of the 1990s, when the Real Plan was implemented, in order to understand the role played by the restructuring of the Brazilian financial system in helping to pave the way to the great resilience experienced by the Brazilian banking system during the 2008 crisis. More specifically, the prudential regulation that was implemented in Brazil in the aftermath of the Real Plan seems to play a decisive role in the resilience of the system nowadays.

O comportamento do cidadão quanto à separação de resíduos recicláveis domiciliares no município de Rio de Janeiro

A aprovação e posterior regulamentação da Lei 12.305, de 2 de agosto de 2010, que institui a Política Nacional de Resíduos Sólidos – PNRS estabeleceu necessidades de uma nova articulação entre os três entes federados – União, Estados e Municípios – o setor produtivo e a sociedade em geral na busca de soluções para os problemas atuais na gestão de resíduos sólidos. Baseada principalmente no conceito de responsabilidade compartilhada, toda a sociedade – cidadãos, setor produtivo, governos e sociedade civil organizada – passa a ser responsável pela gestão dos resíduos sólidos por ela produzidos. Falando especificamente do cidadão, um dos atuais desafios é saber como seu comportamento em relação à separação de resíduos recicláveis no âmbito do seu domicílio se relaciona com os objetivos e metas de reciclagem do município. Considerou-se uma amostra (N=310) de residentes em domicílios do Rio de Janeiro, e os dados coletados foram analisados segundo o modelo ABC de STERN. Os resultados empíricos mostraram que as variáveis associadas ao hábito, às normas sociais diretas e às atitudes afetivas têm peso significativo na predição do modelo do comportamento pró-reciclagem. Como contribuição prática, espera-se que o PMGIRS do Rio de Janeiro possa ser aprimorado, contribuindo para o aumento da participação do cidadão na separação de resíduos recicláveis em seu domicílio, auxiliando os gestores municipais nas decisões necessárias ao cumprimento de objetivos e metas relacionados com a reciclagem na cidade do Rio de Janeiro.

On the distributive impact of unconventional monetary policy

Logo após à crise financeira de 2007-08 o Federal Reserve interveio para tentar controlar a recessão. No entanto, ele não apenas baixou os juros, como também adotou políticas não-convencionais, incluindo o empréstimo direto para empresas em mercados de crédito de alto nível. Estas novas medidas foram controversas e alguns opositores protestaram porque elas estariam ajudando disproporcionalmente aquelas pessoas ligadas ao sistema financeiro que já eram ricas. Nós utilizamos um modelo DSGE para a análise de políticas monetária não convencional e introduzimos dois tipos distintos de agentes, capitalistas e trabalhadores, para investigar o seu impacto distributivo. Nós encontramos que a política de crédito to Fed foi bem sucedida no mercado de trabalho, o que ajuda mais os trabalhadores, e introduziu um novo competidor no mercado bancário, o governo, o que prejudica mais os capitalistas. Logo, nós encontramos que a política de crédito diminuiu a desigualdade nos EUA.

Crianças, jovens e literatura: produto de pesquisa patrocinada pelo INEP-INL/FNLIJ

A impressão que se tem é de que o hábito de leitura está Desaparecendo. O próprio McLuhan, no entanto, afirma que "os valores associados à palavra escrita e impressa devem constituir uma parte permanente da herança humana". Mais importante do que discutir sobre o desaparecimento ou a transformação do livro é investigar o que está ocorrendo, nesta sociedade em mudança, com as novas gerações, em relação à leitura em geral e às obras literárias em especial. O problema pesquisado foi expresso na seguinte pergunta: "Quais os comportamentos apresentados pelos alunos do ensino de 1º. grau do Município do Rio de Janeiro no que se refere à leitura de obras literárias infantis e juvenis"? Para responder à questão, procedeu-se à caracterização: dos alunos quanto à leitura; dos ambientes doméstico e escolar no que se referia a incentivo à leitura; das oportunidades de acesso ao livro oferecidas pelas bibliotecas livrarias. A metodologia adotada foi elaborada especialmente para o estudo e pode ser sujeita a controvérsias. Os alunos demonstraram estar lendo obras literárias infanto-juvenis em quantidade insuficiente, apresentando os quadrinhos o maior índice de consumo. Pareciam encontrar-se em estágios de leitura defasados em relação às etapas de desenvolvimento em que provavelmente se encontravam. Presume-se que sofreram influência poderosa dos meios de comunicação de massa. Os ambientes doméstico e escolar, em maioria, não pareceram oferecer as condições desejáveis de estímulo à leitura. As bibliotecas eram em número demasiado insuficiente para atender à clientela real e potencial existente. Nas livrarias, geralmente, não se notou preocupação maior com o atendimento a crianças e jovens. Constatou-se relacionamento entre a formação de hábitos de leitura/interesse em ler dos alunos e: (a) características do lar e da escola; (b) oportunidades de acesso ao livro. Pareceu identificar-se uma situação de depreciação da literatura escrita a par de crescente penetração dos "mass-media”, supondo-se representar tendência universal, decorrente do atual estágio cultural da humanidade. Apresentam-se sugestões (devidamente operacionalizadas), que representam meios atenuantes das deficiências identificadas e subsídios à política do livro, visando ao desenvolvimento de uma programação integrada de incentivo à leitura infanto-juvenil, a níveis de consumo, produção e difusão de obras.

Flexible information acquisition and optimal Tobin tax in tractable dynamic global games

My dissertation focuses on dynamic aspects of coordination processes such as reversibility of early actions, option to delay decisions, and learning of the environment from the observation of other people’s actions. This study proposes the use of tractable dynamic global games where players privately and passively learn about their actions’ true payoffs and are able to adjust early investment decisions to the arrival of new information to investigate the consequences of the presence of liquidity shocks to the performance of a Tobin tax as a policy intended to foster coordination success (chapter 1), and the adequacy of the use of a Tobin tax in order to reduce an economy’s vulnerability to sudden stops (chapter 2). Then, it analyzes players’ incentive to acquire costly information in a sequential decision setting (chapter 3). In chapter 1, a continuum of foreign agents decide whether to enter or not in an investment project. A fraction λ of them are hit by liquidity restrictions in a second period and are forced to withdraw early investment or precluded from investing in the interim period, depending on the actions they chose in the first period. Players not affected by the liquidity shock are able to revise early decisions. Coordination success is increasing in the aggregate investment and decreasing in the aggregate volume of capital exit. Without liquidity shocks, aggregate investment is (in a pivotal contingency) invariant to frictions like a tax on short term capitals. In this case, a Tobin tax always increases success incidence. In the presence of liquidity shocks, this invariance result no longer holds in equilibrium. A Tobin tax becomes harmful to aggregate investment, which may reduces success incidence if the economy does not benefit enough from avoiding capital reversals. It is shown that the Tobin tax that maximizes the ex-ante probability of successfully coordinated investment is decreasing in the liquidity shock. Chapter 2 studies the effects of a Tobin tax in the same setting of the global game model proposed in chapter 1, with the exception that the liquidity shock is considered stochastic, i.e, there is also aggregate uncertainty about the extension of the liquidity restrictions. It identifies conditions under which, in the unique equilibrium of the model with low probability of liquidity shocks but large dry-ups, a Tobin tax is welfare improving, helping agents to coordinate on the good outcome. The model provides a rationale for a Tobin tax on economies that are prone to sudden stops. The optimal Tobin tax tends to be larger when capital reversals are more harmful and when the fraction of agents hit by liquidity shocks is smaller. Chapter 3 focuses on information acquisition in a sequential decision game with payoff complementar- ity and information externality. When information is cheap relatively to players’ incentive to coordinate actions, only the first player chooses to process information; the second player learns about the true payoff distribution from the observation of the first player’s decision and follows her action. Miscoordination requires that both players privately precess information, which tends to happen when it is expensive and the prior knowledge about the distribution of the payoffs has a large variance.