Modelo de equilibrio geral para simulação de políticas de distribuição de renda e crescimento no Brasil

Apresenta os resultados de um projeto de pesquisa que tem como objetivo a construção de um Modelo Aplicado de Equilíbrio Geral para a Economia Brasileira ("Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model"), voltado para a simulação de políticas públicas de crescimento e distribuição de renda. Após a caracterização e apresentação do modelo adotado ("Brasil CGE 95"), são realizadas treze simulações, onde comparam-se os resultados do ano base (95) com os obtidos em cada experimento, incluindo: indicadores macroeconômicos (PIB, Consumo, Déficit Público, Balança ComerciaL.), a remuneração anual dos dez fatores de produção do modelo (oito tipos de trabalho, dois tipos de capital ), a renda anual dos nove grupos de famílias do modelo, indicadores de pobreza/distribuição e indicadores variados como o emprego/produção setorial, taxa de câmbio real e o índice relativo de preços

Essays in macroeconomy and dynamic term-structure models

This thesis is composed of three articles with the subjects of macroeconomics and - nance. Each article corresponds to a chapter and is done in paper format. In the rst article, which was done with Axel Simonsen, we model and estimate a small open economy for the Canadian economy in a two country General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework. We show that it is important to account for the correlation between Domestic and Foreign shocks and for the Incomplete Pass-Through. In the second chapter-paper, which was done with Hedibert Freitas Lopes, we estimate a Regime-switching Macro-Finance model for the term-structure of interest rates to study the US post-World War II (WWII) joint behavior of macro-variables and the yield-curve. We show that our model tracks well the US NBER cycles, the addition of changes of regime are important to explain the Expectation Theory of the term structure, and macro-variables have increasing importance in recessions to explain the variability of the yield curve. We also present a novel sequential Monte-Carlo algorithm to learn about the parameters and the latent states of the Economy. In the third chapter, I present a Gaussian A ne Term Structure Model (ATSM) with latent jumps in order to address two questions: (1) what are the implications of incorporating jumps in an ATSM for Asian option pricing, in the particular case of the Brazilian DI Index (IDI) option, and (2) how jumps and options a ect the bond risk-premia dynamics. I show that jump risk-premia is negative in a scenario of decreasing interest rates (my sample period) and is important to explain the level of yields, and that gaussian models without jumps and with constant intensity jumps are good to price Asian options.

Tourism and poverty relief

This paper examines the issue of how tourism affects poverty in the context of the effects of tourism on an economy as a whole and on particular sectors within it. A framework for analysing the channels through which tourism affects different households is developed, and a computable general equilibrium model of the Brazilian economy is used to examine the economic impact and distributional effects of tourism in Brazil. It is shown that the effects on all income groups are positive. The lowest income households benefit from tourism but by less than some higher income groups. Policies that could redistribute greater shares of the revenue to the poor are considered.

The effect of social security, demography and technology on retirement

This article investigates the causes in the reduction of labor force participation of the old. We argue that the changes in social security policy, in technology and in demography may account for most of the changes in retirement over the second part of the last century in the U.S. economy. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that embeds social security legislation. The model is able to match very closely the increase in the retirement rate of males aged 65 and older. It also quanti es the isolated impact on retirement and on the solvency of the social security system of the di¤erent factors. The model suggests that technological and demographic changes had a strong in uence on retirement, so that it would have increased signi cantly even if the social security rules had not changed. However, as the latter became much more generous in the past, changes in social security policy can account not only for a sizeable part of the expansion of retirement, but also for the most of the observed increase in the social security expenses as a share of GDP.

Endogenous Transaction Costs

The paper proposes an alternative general equilibrium formulation of financial asset economies with transactions costs. Transaction costs emerge endogenously at equilibrium and reflect agents decisions of intermediating financial activities at the expense of providing labor services. An equilibrium is shown to exist in the case of real asset structures.

Endogenous protection in Mercosul: an empirical analysis

This paper analyses the equilibrium structure of protection in Mercosul, developing empirical analyses based on the literature ensuing from the sequence of models set forth by Grossman and Helpman since 1994. Not only Mercosul’s common external tariff (CET) may be explained under a political economy perspective, but the existence of deviations, both at the level of the external tariffs and at that of the internal ones, make it interesting to contrast several structures under this approach. Different general equilibrium frameworks, in which governments are concerned with campaign contributions and with the welfare of the average voter, while organized special-interest groups care only about the welfare of their members, are used as the theoretical basis of the empirical tests. We build a single equation for explaining the CET and two fourequations systems (one equation for each member) for explaining deviations from the CET and from the internal free trade between members. The results (at the two-digit level) shed an interesting light on the sectoral dynamics of protection in each country; notably, Brazil seems to fit in better in the model framework, followed by Uruguay. In the case of the CET, and of deviations from it, the interaction between the domestic lobbies in the four countries plays a major role. There is also suggestion that the lobby structure that bid for deviations, be they internal or external, differs from the one which bid for the CET.

Structural Transformation and Productivity in Latin America

We investigate the role of sectorial differences in labor productivity and the process of structural transformation (reallocation of labor across sectors) in accounting for the time path of aggregate productivity across six Latin American countries (Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela) from 1950 to 2003. We used a general equilibrium model with three sectors (agriculture, industry and services) calibrated to those six economies. The model is used to compare the trajectory of productivity in each sector of activity with that of the United States and it impact on aggregate productivity.While in Brazil and Argentina, the Service Sector was responsible for reversing the process of catch up in productivity that occurred until the 1980s, in others, like Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela, low productivity growth of the three sectors explain their poor performance.

The effect of social security, health, demography and technology on retirement

This article studies the determinants of the labor force participation of the elderly and investigates the factors that may account for the increase in retirement in the second half of the last century. We develop a life-cycle general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that embeds Social Security legislation and Medicare. Individuals are ex ante heterogeneous with respect to their preferences for leisure and face uncertainty about labor productivity, health status and out-of-pocket medical expenses. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy in 2000 and is able to reproduce very closely the retirement behavior of the American population. It reproduces the peaks in the distribution of Social Security applications at ages 62 and 65 and the observed facts that low earners and unhealthy individuals retire earlier. It also matches very closely the increase in retirement from 1950 to 2000. Changes in Social Security policy - which became much more generous - and the introduction of Medicare account for most of the expansion of retirement. In contrast, the isolated impact of the increase in longevity was a delaying of retirement.

Estimando a taxa de juros real neutra brasileira via modelo DSGE

Este trabalho objetiva estimar uma série trimestral para a taxa de juros real neutra brasileira via modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Dinâmico Estocástico (DSGE), para o período compreendido entre o primeiro trimestre de 2000 e o último de 2011. O modelo representa uma economia fechada, com famílias maximizando utilidade do tipo CRRA, firmas maximizando lucro em um mercado de concorrência imperfeita e um governo com política fiscal de orçamento equilibrado e regra de política monetária à la Taylor, em um contexto de rigidez de preços. Neste arcabouço, a taxa de juros real neutra foi calculada com base nos choques de produtividade e de gastos de governo, que foram considerados os mais relevantes para a economia brasileira. Adicionalmente, analisou-se o impacto dos choques de produtividade e gastos do governo sobre a taxa neutra, assim como seu comportamento ao longo do período estimado e sua sensibilidade a calibragens alternativas. Por fim, ao comparar o comportamento do hiato de taxa de juros vis-à-vis à inflação, encontramos correlações negativas de 56% e 83% para todo o período estimado e para uma amostra mais recente (do primeiro trimestre de 2006 até o último de 2011), respectivamente, indicando certa consistência na série obtida.

Relações comerciais entre Brasil e China : uma análise de bem-estar a partir de um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável

O propósito deste trabalho é examinar possíveis ganhos de bem-estar provenientes de arranjos comerciais entre Brasil e China sob a ótica de um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável, o chamado “modelo GTAP” (sigla para Global Trade Analysis Project). Com base em uma descrição extensiva das estruturas econômicas e comerciais dos países e das Vantagens Comparativas de cada um deles, é possível simular acordos preferenciais de comércio e analisar os resultados de bem-estar por meio da medida de Variação Equivalente. Outro aspecto referente ao comércio sino-brasileiro que pode ser avaliado pela medida de bem-estar é o desalinhamento cambial dos dois países e as consequências deste para as transações comerciais entre ambos. Utilizando o mesmo ferramental anteriormente citado, o trabalho busca avaliar o impacto de tal desalinhamento no bem-estar dos países, uma vez que o câmbio seja corrigido via ajuste tarifário.

Inadimplência de dívida soberana em modelo de equilíbrio geral com credores heterogêneos

Este artigo propõe um modelo de equilíbrio geral com inadimplência de dívida soberana (default soberano), sem setor bancário ou setor externo, em que há heterogeneidade dos agentes da economia. Essa heterogeneidade surge a partir da existência de dois tipos de consumidores com choques de riqueza distintos (mas idênticos em outros aspectos) e o governo, que toma decisão de default, pondera esses agentes de maneira distinta na função de bem-estar. O principal motivador dessa ideia vem da intuição de que a decisão de um país não cumprir com as suas obrigações de dívida pode estar ligada não somente ao valor de face dos títulos emitidos ou à situação econômica, mas também a quem detêm esses títulos (sua distribuição entre agentes). Essa abordagem permitiu que se reproduzissem comportamentos já identificados em estudos empíricos presentes na literatura, os quais encontraram uma relação negativa, porém surpreendentemente fraca, entre moratória da dívida e atividade econômica e lança luz sobre aspectos importantes que podem influenciar a decisão de default, como funcionamento de mercados secundários de títulos públicos.

Essays in heterogeneous agent macroeconomics

This thesis is comprised of three chapters. The first article studies the determinants of the labor force participation of elderly American males and investigates the factors that may account for the changes in retirement between 1950 and 2000. We develop a life-cycle general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that embeds Social Security legislation and Medicare. Individuals are ex ante heterogeneous with respect to their preferences for leisure and face uncertainty about labor productivity, health status and out-of-pocket medical expenses. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy in 2000 and is able to reproduce very closely the retirement behavior of the American population. It reproduces the peaks in the distribution of Social Security applications at ages 62 and 65 and the observed facts that low earners and unhealthy individuals retire earlier. It also matches very closely the increase in retirement from 1950 to 2000. Changes in Social Security policy - which became much more generous - and the introduction of Medicare account for most of the expansion of retirement. In contrast, the isolated impact of the increase in longevity was a delaying of retirement. In the second article, I develop an overlapping generations model of criminal behavior, which extends prior research on crime by taking into account individuals' labor supply decisions and the stigma effect that affects convicted offenders, lowering their likelihood of employment. I use the model to guide a quantitative assessment of the determinants of crime and of a counterfactual experiment in which an income redistribution policy is thought as an alternative to greater law enforcement. The model economy considered in this paper is populated by heterogeneous agents who live for a realistic number of periods, have preferences over consumption and leisure, and differ in terms of their age, their skills as well as their employment shocks. In addition, savings may be precautionary and allow partial insurance against the labor income shocks. Because of the lack of full insurance, this model generates an endogenous distribution of wealth across consumers, enabling us to assess the welfare implications of the redistribution policy experiment. I calibrated the model using the US data for 1980 and then use the model to investigate the changes in criminality between 1980 and 1996. The main results that come out of this study are: 1) Law enforcement policy was the most important factor behind the fall in criminality in the period, while the increase in inequality was the most important single factor promoting crime; 2) Stigmatization is not a free-cost crime control policy; 3) Income redistribution can be a powerful alternative policy to fight crime. Finally, the third article studies the impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita income and education. It explores two channels from HIV/AIDS to income that have not been sufficiently stressed by the literature: the reduction of the incentives to study due to shorter expected longevity and the reduction of productivity of experienced workers. In the model individuals live for three periods, may get infected in the second period and with some probability die of Aids before reaching the third period of their life. Parents care for the welfare of the future generations so that they will maximize lifetime utility of their dynasty. The simulations predict that the most affected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa will be in the future, on average, thirty percent poorer than they would be without AIDS. Schooling will decline in some cases by forty percent. These figures are dramatically reduced with widespread medical treatment, as it increases the survival probability and productivity of infected individuals.

DSGE model with banking sector for emerging economies : estimated using Bayesian methodology for Brazil

Economias emergentes sofrem importantes restrições de crédito quando comparadas com economias desenvolvidas, entretanto, modelos estocásticos de equilíbrio geral (DSGE) desenhados para economias emergentes ainda precisam avançar nessa discussão. Nós propomos um modelo DSGE que pretende representar uma economia emergente com setor bancário baseado em Gerali et al. (2010). Nossa contribuição é considerar uma parcela da renda esperada como colateral para empréstimos das famílias. Nós estimamos o modelo proposto para o Brasil utilizando estimação Bayesiana e encontramos que economias que sofrem restrição de colateral por parte das famílias tendem a sentir o impacto de choques monetários mais rapidamente devido a exposição do setor bancário a mudanças no salário esperado.

Modelos de equilíbrio geral dinâmico com custo de default

Neste trabalho fazemos um resumo de alguns artigos que tratam de equilíbrio geral dinâmico com custos de default. Focamos no estudo dos modelos de Kehoe e Levine (1993) e de Alvarez e Jermann (2000). Também descrevemos algumas adaptações do modelo de Alvarez e Jermann, como os trabalhos de Hellwig e Lorenzoni (2009) e de Azariadis e Kaas (2008), e comparamos os resultados desses modelos com os de Huggett (1993), no qual os mercados são exogenamente incompletos. Finalmente, expomos uma falha no algoritmo computacional sugerido por Krueger e Perry (2010) para se computar os equilíbrios estacionários de economias como as de Alvarez e Jermann (2000).

On the use (fulness) of CGE modelling in trade negotiations and policy

This paper discusses a series of issues related to the use and different possible applications of CGE modelling in trade negotiations. The points addressed range from practical to methodological questions: when to use the models, what they provide the users and how far the model structure and assumptions should be explained to them, the complementary roles of partial and general equilibrium modelling, areas to be improved and data questions. The relevance of the modeller as the final decision maker in all these instances is also highlighted.