Estimating Brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

This paper has several original contributions. The rst is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). Second, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), we propose and test a myriad of interpolation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we nally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil- the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that the our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, whichmay not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. Third, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, we illustrate the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Estimating Brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

The first contribution of this paper is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). The second contribution, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), is to propose and test a myriad of inter-polation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we finally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil - the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, which may not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. The third contribution is to illustrate, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Proposta de um modelo de apoio a processos de consultoria para a melhoria de operações de pequenas empresas

Com o substancial avanço da competitividade, crescem os interesses pela discussão de mecanismos potencializadores de implantação de novas tecnologias de gestão das operações das empresas, percebidas como um lastro de sustentação das organizações, necessário num mundo globalizado, no qual o poder de influência dos consumidores tem ganhado inegável relevância. Entretanto, a realidade tem revelado dificuldades de inclusão dessas abordagens em algumas empresas brasileiras, sobretudo naquelas de menor porte. Uma das barreiras são, indiscutivelmente, as limitações de recursos, aliadas às poucas alternativas de crédito de baixo custo disponibilizadas no mercado nacional para este segmento de empresas. Diante deste cenário, consultores independentes têm o enorme desafio de internalizar nestas organizações modelos de gestão mais coerentes com a dinâmica da economia atual, tendo como obstáculos adicionais as resistências culturais naturais à incorporação de algumas filosofias de administração modernas como o Lean e a Teoria das Restrições, questionadoras de conceitos tradicionais e detentoras de visões singulares, mas igualmente potencializadoras de resultados efetivos, a um baixo custo. Este trabalho objetivou, por um lado avaliar o contexto no qual os pequenos negócios estão inseridos, e, por outro, propor um modelo de apoio para consultoria voltado para este segmento de empresas, no qual os consultores assumem preponderantemente papeis de educador e coach, de maneira a elevar as chances não somente da implantação de técnicas mais modernas de gestão de operação, mas também de sua incorporação definitiva nestas organizações.

Divergências nas percepções de executivos proprietários e profissionais contratados nos fatores críticos de sucesso em um processo de sucessão familiar: um estudo de caso na Empresa Real Auto-Ônibus

Este trabalho tem como objetivo identificar as divergências na percepção de profissionais contratados e executivos com vínculo familiar quanto aos fatores críticos de sucesso em um processo de sucessão em empresas familiares. Para tanto, contextualiza-se a empresa familiar quanto suas características, tipologia e participantes, bem como suas tendências no mundo globalizado. Em seguida, caracterizaram-se as empresas familiares quanto as práticas de governança corporativa, apresentando o seu conceito e principalmente a teoria do agente e o principal. O foco principal do trabalho foi abordado em seguida, nas características do processo de sucessão em empresas familiares, onde se verificou necessário abordar a caracterização do ciclo de vida em empresas familiares. Também foram apresentados os fatores críticos de sucesso mais encontrados nos fundamentos teóricos. Para reforçar referencial teórico foi realizado um estudo de caso, sendo realizadas entrevistas com executivos com vínculo familiar e profissionais contratados. Após analise dos resultados, apontaram-se as principais divergências encontradas entre os dois grupos entrevistados.

The gay subject in business and its discursive formation: an exploration on power, knowledge and sexuality

Issues related to the reality of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) individuals are being incorporated into institutional and social discourses, and show the challenges that must be overcome towards citizenship. The inclusion of gay rights in the domain of institutions like the United Nations and the Brazilian Secretariat of Human Rights are a response to broader movements that places the gay subject as an important topic of debate in the social-political sphere. In this scenario, some institutions deserve close attention from researchers related to gay issues, the business environment being a good example. In this domain, diversity has become an important topic of debate between scholars, where the question of sexual identity in most cases does not appear. The literature that actually focuses on the theme is explored through approaches that are not able to break with universalisms and a normatized vocabulary. Therefore, this research explores discursive structures related to sexuality and examines the meanings construed throughout these structures as described by gay individuals working in business. Furthermore, it investigates patterns of discursive normative structures and consequential challenges faced by gay people in the working environment, and also complements the current debate both in the socio-political sphere and in academic reality on LGBT challenges. The Foucauldian notions of discourse, knowledge and power, and the main concepts of queer theory are incorporated to the analysis, as well as concepts related to the politics of post-colonial sexuality, subordination, and hegemonic forces, together with role of reflexivity in modernity and its impacts on secularized mental structures. The research design takes a phenomenological approach and bases its knowledge claim on a participatory perspective, where the sample chosen for data collection consisted of gay individuals working in the business environment, aiming at generate categories of meanings through the description of their experiences.

The exhaustion of the brazilian growth cycle

O Brasil recebeu muita atenção na última década, sua ascensão ao status de grande potência e uma das maiores economias mundiais tem sido enfatizada. No entanto, existem sinais de que essa prosperidade recente está chegando ao fim, sugerindo que houve um excesso de otimismo em relação ao aparente sucesso econômico do país e a possiblidade de crescimento contínuo. O Brasil focou na exportação de produtos primários e em um modelo de crescimento baseado no consumo, que se tornaram as locomotivas da economia. Uma pujante economia mundial demandando produtos primários e um amplo e inexplorado mercado interno ajudam a explicar o crescimento brasileiro na década passada. Não obstante, esse modelo apresenta diversas limitações. A inflação, mais uma vez, está em alta e os gargalos que impedem o desenvolvimento econômico não foram resolvidos. O objetivo desta dissertação é demonstrar que o atual ciclo de crescimento da economia brasileira está no fim. Dados de diversas fontes, nacionais e internacionais, serão usados para indicar que, novamente, o país teve um crescimento efêmero e não possui uma estrutura econômica adequada para promover o desenvolvimento de longo prazo. Uma breve análise dos fundamentos econômicos, clima de negócios e outros tópicos relacionados ao crescimento e desenvolvimento será apresentada, articulando dados e fatos para encontrar causas e explicações para a atual inversão de tendência econômica.

Business cycles in emerging economies : the role of interest rates

This paper documents the empirical relation between the interest rates that emerging economies face in international capital markets and their business cycles. It shows that the patterns observed in the data can be interpreted as the equilibrium of a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy, in which (i) firms have to pay for a fraction of the input bill before production takes place, and (ii) preferences generate a labor supply that is independent of the interest rate. In our sample, interest rates are strongly countercyclical, strongly positively correlated with net exports, and they lead the cycle. Output is very volatile and consumption is more volatile than output. The sample includes data for Argentina during 1983-2000 and for four other large emerging economies, Brazil, Mexico, Korea, and Philippines, during 1994-2000. The model is calibrated to Argentina’s economy for the period 1983-1999. When the model is fed with actual US interest rates and the actual default spreads of Argentine sovereign interest rates, interest rates alone can explain forty percent of output fluctuations. When simulated technology shocks are added to the model, it can account for the main empirical regularities of Argentina’s economy during the period. A 1% increase in country risk causes a contemporaneous fall in output of 0.5 ’subsequent recovery. An increase in US rates causes output to fall by the same on impact and by almost 2% two years after the shock. The asymetry in the effect of shocks to US rates and country risk is due to the fact that US interest rates are more persistent than country risk and that there is a significant spillover effect from US interest rates to country risk.

Business diplomacy: the compass rose of foreign markets

With transnational corporations (TNCs) around the world today numbering over 60,000 and more than 800,000 affiliates working abroad, it is easy to understand how modern day international business could have transformed into a major global player serving at the axis of politics, social and environmental responsibility. Additionally, with accountability to a large variety of both public and private stakeholders, all exerting significant power and influence, today’s global corporate structure is reinventing modern international relations, and in some cases, dominating it. (Muldoon 2005) This transformative nature of globalization today can also serve as a source of friction among this growing chorus of players and is bringing irreversible change to these relationships and how they impact and influence business around the world. (Muldoon 2005) From the largest to the smallest international corporation seeking to expand into new international markets, the challenges that come with corporate ambition can mean the difference between success and failure and they find a home at the intersection of international relations, diplomacy and economics. To successfully navigate these challenges, especially in emerging economies, a company must now factor in more than just the “bottom line” and address complex issues that include human rights differences, environmental regulations, labor rights and values of each country. (Henisz, 2014) Combined with modern-day mobility achieved through technology and the Internet, corporations today have a great capacity to reach targeted audiences and establish a presence, but it is this same technology that also allows for immediate response to any corporate action. This constant, 24-hour news cycle, where everyone is made to be a real-time reporter through social media, has created a situation that demonstrably necessitates the ability to not only 3 respond immediately, but also to have real-time understanding of the challenges faced by a corporation as it looks toward global expansion. International Business Diplomacy, or simply Business Diplomacy as it will be referred to in this paper, combines all of these nuanced factors into a relatively new discipline that offers companies looking to expand into new markets, guidelines and directives so that they can more strategically map corporate direction, limit risk and achieve their objectives. This paper will examine the history of diplomacy and how the concept of statecraft became intertwined with the increasing globalization of business. Following a scholarly examination of how modern Business Diplomacy came into being, and the unique challenges that come with its application, particularly the liabilities needed to be overcome, this paper will apply the concept to the Brazilian aerospace manufacturer Embraer, tracking its strategic emergence from a small, regionally focused aircraft producer to global leader in the regional and executive jet market platforms. It will then examine Embraer’s entrance into the Chinese market, where the company suffered from several missteps and eventually had to refocus its business model from commercial to executive jets. Finally, as globalization continues to “emancipate international business from its institutional and social constraints,” (Muldoon 2005) this paper will address how the relatively new and emerging discipline of Business Diplomacy is continuing to mature and grow in stature and influence through the proposition of a new challenge or “liability” that corporations must also overcome as they expand into new markets. Through the analysis of Embraer in China, this paper will introduce the Liability of Governance to the lexicon of Business Diplomacy and propose specific steps that a company can undertake to avoid it.

Information asymmetry and transaction costs in a cross-cultural business transaction

The intent of this paper is to provide a practitioners insight into the present and foreseeable future of problem of transaction cost economics related to culture and business etiquette that may increase the of complexity of business communication. We will also explore whether it impacts participant's mindsets regarding opportunistic or passive aggressive behavior. We will study the role of culture, ethics, information asymmetry, and legal systems regarding their importance towards the business contracts and lack of knowledge in local environments. We will make connections to contract theory strategies and objectives and recommend business practices. Furthermore, economic theory explores the role of the impossibility of the perfect contract. Historical and present day operational factors are examined for the determination of forward-looking contract law indications worldwide. This paper is intended provide a practitioners view with a global perspective of a multinational, mid-sized and small corporations giving consideration in a non-partisan and non-nationalistic view, yet examines the individual characteristics of the operational necessities and obligations of any corporation. The study will be general, yet cite specific articles to each argument and give adequate consideration to the intricacies of the global asymmetry of information. This paper defends that corporations of any kind and size should be aware of the risk of international business etiquette and cultural barriers that might jeopardize the savings you could obtain from engaging international suppliers.

Why join a carbon club?: a study of the banks participating in the Brazilian “Business for Climate Platform”

Why do firms that present low levels of (direct) carbon emissions participate in “carbon clubs”, which have the goal of managing and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions? In order to answer this question, we collected data from both primary and secondary sources from firms operating in the Brazilian banking sector, which are members of the Businesses for Climate Platform (Plataforma Empresas pelo Clima e EPC). We first looked for answers in the institutional theory and resource based view of the firm (RBV). By confronting the arguments presented by these streams of scientific enquiry with empirical data, we worked on theory testing. In particular, we analyzed the institutional pressures and resources and capabilities of the focus companies, in order to understand the rationales for proactive sustainability management. We found evidences of the arguments presented by both the institutional theory and the RBV. By studying an industry that is not a frequent subject to research on socio-environmental issues e for not being considered of high impact e in an emerging market economy, the research contributes to both the further development of the institutional theory and the advancement of sustainability management in corporations.

An evaluation of the Business Model Canvas by technology-oriented startups in Brazil : a qualitative study about the usage of the tool by Brazilian entrepreneurs

The following paper was conducted with the support of several entrepreneurs and startups from Brazil. The aim of the research was to find out which impact the Business Model Canvas, further abbreviated as BMC, has on technology-oriented startups in Brazil. The first step of the study was identify some general concepts of entrepreneurship, as well as the conditions and environment of the country. Afterwards, it was focused on defining and comparing different business model tools and concepts to the BMC. After the literature review and meeting with several professionals in the area of entrepreneurship and startups, a questionnaire was formulated in order to conduct the qualitative study and identify the main impact of the tool. The questionnaire was answered by ten startups. In order to check the validity and credibility of the research outcomes, theory and investigator triangulation was used. As a result, the usage of the BMC could be evaluated by obtaining the outcomes and the theory, which showed that Brazilian tech startups are using Osterwalder’s model for the reason of idea creation and testing, validating and pivoting their business model. Interestingly, the research revealed that the entrepreneurs are using the tool often not in the traditional way of printing it, but rather applying it as a thinking approach. Besides, the entrepreneurs are focusing mostly on developing a strong Value Proposition, Customer Segment and sustainable Revenue Streams, while afterwards the remaining building blocks are built. Moreover, the research showed that the startups are using also other concepts, such as the Customer Development Process or Build-Measure-Learn Feedback Loop. These methodologies are often applied together with the BMC and helps to identify the most sustainable components of the business idea. Keywords: Business