The manufacturing industry in Brazil in the era of global value chains

This article presents a comprehensive and detailed overview of the international trade performance of the manufacturing industry in Brazil over the last decades, emphasizing its participation in Global Value Chains. It uses information from recent available global inputoutput tables such as WIOD (World Input-output database) and TIVA (Trade in Value Added, OECD) as well as complementary information from the GTAP 8 (Global Trade Analysis Project) database. The calculation of a broad set of value added type indicators allows a precise contextualization of the ongoing structural changes in the Brazilian industry, highlighting the relative isolation of its manufacturing sector from the most relevant international supply chains. This article also proposes a public policy discussion, presenting two case studies: the first one related to trade facilitation and the second one to preferential trade agreements. The main conclusions are twofold: first, the reduction of time delays at customs in Brazil may significantly improve the trade performance of its manufacturing industry, specially for the more capital intensive sectors which are generally the ones with greater potential to connection to global value chains; second, the extension of the concept of a “preferential trade partner” to the context of the global unbundling of production may pave the way to future trade policy in Brazil, particularly in the mapping of those partners whose bilateral trade relations with Brazil should receive greater priority by policy makers

Rules of origin: an unfinished negotiation

Many countries are also engaged in trade negotiations on FTAs. RO are a central theme on each of theses fronts. A detailed analysis of the key questions surrounding the harmonization process is compelling, given that RO talks at the WTO will affect the negotiation of FTAs. Many developing countries are waiting the results from WTO to define their own RO. Since the impasse continues, they are creating their own systems and multiplying different ROs to satisfy their needs. This article seeks to provide some clues why it was impossible, till now, to finish this multilateral negotiation. It is organized as follows: i) review of the main issues in the ARO; ii) present the main points of contention in the harmonization work; iii) analyze the implications of a harmonized system of rules of origin to the other major WTO agreements as well as to other national trade policy instruments; and to present some possible scenarios how to conclude the negotiation

On the use (fulness) of CGE modelling in trade negotiations and policy

This paper discusses a series of issues related to the use and different possible applications of CGE modelling in trade negotiations. The points addressed range from practical to methodological questions: when to use the models, what they provide the users and how far the model structure and assumptions should be explained to them, the complementary roles of partial and general equilibrium modelling, areas to be improved and data questions. The relevance of the modeller as the final decision maker in all these instances is also highlighted.

Trade liberalization and industrial concentration: evidence from Brazil

This paper applies an endogenous lobby formation model to explain the extent of trade protection granted to Brazilian manufacturing industries during the 1988- 1994 trade liberalization episode. Using a panel data set covering this period, we find that even in an environment in which a major regime shift has been introduced, more concentrated sectors have been able to obtain policy advantages, that lead to a reduction in international competition. The importance of industry structure appears to be substantial: In our baseline specification, an increase in concentration by 20% leads to an increase in protection by 5%-7%.

Welfare and fiscal policy with public goods and infrastructure

We construct and simulate a model to study the welfare and macroeconomic impact of government actions when its productive role is taken into account. The trade-off between public investment and public consumption is also investigated, since public consumption is introduced as a public good that directly affects individuals' well-being. Our results replicate econometric evidence showing that part of the observed slowdown of U.S. productivity growth can be explained by the reduction of investment in infrastructure which also implied a sizable welfare 1085 to the popu1ation. Depending on the methodology used we found a welfare cost ranging from 4.2% to 1.16% of GNP. The impact of fiscal policy can be qualitative and quantitative distinct depending on Whether we assume a higher or smaller output elasticity to infrastructure. If it is high enough, increases in tax rates may stimulate accumulation and production, which is the opposite prediction of standard ncocJassica1 models.

Trade and poverty in latin american countries: conceptual and methodological challenges

This paper addresses topics - either relevant or confusing or needing more attention - related to measuring the trade and poverty nexus. It sheds a critical light on the existing material and suggests needed research lines. It starts with questions akin to the LAC realities; then, keeping this view, general methodological issues are also examined. In a broader perspective, further ideas for the research agenda are formulated. The main conclusion is that relevant findings still demand considerable efforts. Moreover, the Information-measurement-model-evaluation paradigm is not enough, policy guidelines being usually too general. In LAC, it must be extended and deepened, accounting more for the heterogeneity of cases, including, whenever possible, the physical constraints and incorporating new ways of integrating both the local and global perspectives. Other aspects, like the role of specific juridical measures, should play a role. How all this can be combined into more encompassing evaluations remains open

Processos jurídicos transnacionais estatais: o fair trade e a construção do sistema de comércio justo e solidário no Brasil

Este trabalho busca responder à seguinte pergunta: qual a influência que a prática e os princípios transnacionais do Fair Trade tiveram na criação do Sistema Nacional de Comércio Justo e Solidário no Brasil (SCJS)? A fim de respondê-la, foram utilizados dois tipos de fontes: documental (normas jurídicas, documentos institucionais, relatórios, atas, informativos, formulários e outros registros disponibilizados na internet pelas organizações aqui pesquisadas) e entrevistas com os dois atores chave do processo de construção do SCJS - Fabíola Zerbini, Secretária Executiva do Faces à época de sua criação (grupo central no processo de construção do SCJS), e Antonio Haroldo Pinheiro Mendonça, o coordenador do Grupo de Trabalho para o SCJS e hoje responsável por coordenar os trabalhos referentes ao SCJS junto ao Ministério do Trabalho e Emprego. Este trabalho se insere na literatura sobre atores regulatórios privados e sua atuação no âmbito transnacional, e se utiliza da ferramenta analítica proposta por Gregory Shaffer para estudar o impacto dos processos transnacionais nas mudanças estatais. Foi possível observar que os intermediários dos processos transnacionais, inseridos em suas próprias pautas e movimentos nacionais, tiveram papel central na construção de uma prática de comercialização justa distinta da praticada no âmbito transnacional, junto com outros elementos como a existência de um ambiente político e institucional favorável para a temática de uma comercialização justa e as demandas locais já existentes. Notou-se, ainda, a presença constante do Estado, que participou de todas as etapas do processo e pretende colocar-se como uma referência na construção de políticas públicas de fomento à comercialização justa e solidária junto a atores, privados ou públicos, que atuem em outros países. Concluiu-se que os processos transnacionais que geram transformações estatais não são lineares e seus resultados não podem ser previsíveis, sobretudo porque são caracterizados pela a recursividade - dinâmica em que os atores envolvidos nos processos transnacionais buscam influenciar a regulação e prática das normas jurídicas nacionais, ao mesmo tempo em que o nível local fornece resistências e adaptações que, por sua vez, podem influenciar o processo regulatório transnacional, fornecendo um modelo posterior a ser exportado por processos transnacionais. O estudo sobre a produção de normas sob influência de processos transnacionais contribui para a construção do conhecimento no campo da literatura sobre a regulação privada transnacional (RPT) e a legislação nacional, bem como sobre Direito e Desenvolvimento, ao organizar informações a respeito da construção do SCJS e de seus arranjos jurídicos vis-à-vis a prática regulatória transnacional do Fair Trade, bem como ao olhar para as dinâmicas referentes à atuação dos atores, públicos e privados, e de seus contextos na formulação da regulação pública.

Balance of payments dominance: its implications for macroeconomic policy

This paper defines “balance of payments dominance” as a macroeconomic regime in which the short-term macroeconomic dynamics is essentially determined by external shocks, positive or negative. It argues that this is the predominant regime in emerging and developing countries. Trade shocks play an important role but the major procyclical shocks are associated with boom-bust cycles in external financing. Policy challenges are associated not only with the management of such shocks but also with the need to enhance the space for countercyclical macroeconomic policies, as boom-bust cycles tend to pressure macroeconomic policies to behave in a procyclical way. Under these conditions, the best bet is to design policies to reduce external vulnerabilities through a mix of administered exchange rate policies, very active foreign exchange reserve management, reduced reliance on external borrowing, and macroprudential regulations, including those directly affecting capital flows. Countercyclical fiscal policy can also play a role but face strong economic and political economy challenges.

Balance of payments dominance : its implocations for macroeconomic policy

This paper defines “balance of payments dominance” as a macroeconomic regime in which the short-term macroeconomic dynamics is essentially determined by external shocks, positive or negative. It argues that this is the predominant regime in emerging and developing countries. Trade shocks play an important role but the major procyclical shocks are associated with boom-bust cycles in external financing. Policy challenges are associated not only with the management of such shocks but also with the need to enhance the space for countercyclical macroeconomic policies, as boom-bust cycles tend to pressure macroeconomic policies to behave in a procyclical way. Under these conditions, the best bet is to design policies to reduce external vulnerabilities through a mix of administered exchange rate flexibility, very active foreign exchange reserve management, reduced reliance on external borrowing, and macroprudential regulations, including those directly affecting capital flows. Countercyclical fiscal policy can also play a role but face strong economic and political economy challenges.