After structuralism, a development alternative for Latin America

The paper, first, summarizes Latin American structuralism, and offers reasons why it was so influential and durable in the region, as it attended to real demands, and was part of 1950s’mainstream economics. Second, says why, with 1980s’Great Crisis, structuralism eventually ended itself into crisis, as it was unable to keep pace with historical new facts, particularly with the industrial revolution or takeoff, that made Latin American economies intermediary, still developing, but fully capitalist. Third, it lists the consensus that today exists on economic development. Forth, opposes “official orthodoxy” to “developmental populism”, the former deriving from neoclassical economics, the later from structuralism, and offers, in relation to six strategic issues, a progressive development alternative.

From the national-bourgeois to the associated dependency interpretation of latin America

Nos anos 1960 e 1970 a América Latina foi palco de golpes militares modernizadores e da transição de seus intelectuais do nacionalismo para a dependência associada. Nos anos 1950 dois grupos de intelectuais públicos, organizados entre a Cepal, em Santiago, Chile, e o ISEB, no Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, abriram caminho para o pensamento das sociedades e economias latino-americanas (inclusive do Brasil) a partir de uma visão nacionalista. A Cepal criticava principalmente a lei das vantagens comparativas e suas essenciais implicações imperialistas; o ISEB se focava na definição política de uma estratégia nacional-desenvolvimentista. A idéia de uma burguesia nacional era a resposta para esta interpretação da América Latina. A Revolução Cubana, a crise econômica dos anos 1960 e os golpes militares nos países do Cone Sul, entretanto, criaram espaço para a crítica a essas idéias com uma nova interpretação: a da dependência. Ao rejeitar totalmente a possibilidade de uma burguesia nacional, duas versões da interpretação da dependência (a interpretação “associada” e a “superexploração”) também rejeitaram a possibilidade de uma estratégia nacional-desenvolvimentista. Apenas uma terceira interpretação, a “nacional-dependente” continuava a afirmar a necessidade e a possibilidade de uma burguesia nacional e de uma estratégia nacional. Entretanto, foi a interpretação da dependência associada que foi dominante na América Latina nos anos 1970 e 1980.

From old to new developmentalism in Latin America

O fracasso do consenso de Washington e das políticas macroeconômicas, baseadas em altas taxas de juros e taxas de câmbio não-competitivas para promover o crescimento da economia, levou os países da América Latina a formularem estratégias nacionais de desenvolvimento. O novo desenvolvimentismo é uma estratégia alternativa não apenas à ortodoxia convencional, mas também ao antigo nacional-desenvolvimentismo latino-americano. Enquanto o antigo nacional desenvolvimentismo era baseado na tendência à deterioração dos termos de troca e, adotando uma abordagem microeconômica, propunha planejamento econômico e industrialização, o novo nacional-desenvolvimentismo pressupõe que a industrialização foi alcançada, apesar de em diferentes estágios em cada país, e argumenta que, para assegurar rápidas taxas de crescimento e o catch up, a tendência que deve ser neutralizada é a da sobrevalorização da taxa de câmbio. Contrariamente à economia convencional, um estado capaz continua sendo o instrumento chave para assegurar o desenvolvimento econômico, a política industrial continua sendo necessária; mas o que distingue a nova abordagem é principalmente o crescimento com poupança interna, ao invés de com poupança externa. Uma política macroeconômica baseada em taxas de juros moderadas e uma taxa de câmbio competitiva, e não altas taxas de juros e moeda sobreapreciada conforme recomenda a ortodoxia convencional.

Infrastructure and productivity in Latin America: is there a relationship in the long run?

This article analyses the relationship between infrastructure and total factor productivity (TFP) in the four major Latin American economies: Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. We hypothesise that an increase in infrastructure has an indirect effect on long-term economic growth by raising productivity. To assess this theory, we use the traditional Johansen methodology for testing the cointegration between TFP and physical measures of infrastructure stock, such as energy, roads, and telephones. We then apply the Lütkepohl, Saikkonen and Trenkler Test, which considers a possible level shift in the series and has better small sample properties, to the same data set and compare the two tests. The results do not support a robust long-term relationship between the series; we do not find strong evidence that cuts in infrastructure investment in some Latin American countries were the main reason for the fall in TFP during the 1970s and 1980s.

Macroeconomia estruturalista do desenvolvimento

Structuralist development macroeconomics. This paper presents some basic ideas and models of a structuralist development macroeconomics (the tendencies to the overvaluation of the exchange rate and the tendency of wages to grow below productivity, the critique of growth with foreign savings, and a new model of the Dutch disease) that complement and actualize the thought of the Latin-American structuralist school that developed around ECLAC from the late 1940s to the 1960s. On the other hand, it suggests that a new national development strategy based on the experience of fast growing Asian countries is emerging; and argues that only the countries that adopt such strategy based on growth with domestic savings, fiscal and foreign trade responsibility and a competitive exchange rate will be able to catch up.

Three essays on education from the perspective of the economics of public setor

This work consists of three essays organized into chapters that seek to answer questions at first sight unrelated, but with one common denominator, which is the scarcity of public resources devoted to education, overall, especially in lower education. . The first chapter deals with the scarcity of resources devoted to education in a context of population aging. Two hypotheses were tested for Brazilian municipalities on the relationship between the aging of the population and educational expenditure. The first, already proven in the literature, is that there is an intergenerational conflict for resources and the increase of the share of elderly in the population reduces the educational expenditure. The second, proposed here for the first time, is that there should be reduction of competition for resources if there is a relationship of co-residence between young and old. The results indicated that an increase in the share of elderly reduces the educational expenditure per youth. But the results also illustrate that an increase in the share of elderly co-residing with youth (family arrangement more common in Latin American countries) raises the educational expenditure, which reflects a reduction of competition for resources between generations. The second chapter assesses the allocative efficiency of investments in Higher Education. Using the difference between first-year and last-year students’ scores from Enade aggregated by HEI as a product in the Stochastic Production Function, is possible to contribute with a new element in the literature aimed at estimating the production function of education. The results show that characteristics of institutions are the variables that best explain the performance of students, and that public institutions are more inefficient than the private ones. Finally, the third chapter presents evidence that the allocation of public resources in early childhood education is important for a better future school performance. In this chapter was calculated the effects of early childhood education on literacy scores of children attending the 2nd grade of elementary school. The results using OLS and propensity score matching show that students who started school at the ages to 5, 4, and 3 years had literacy scores between 12.22 and 19.54 points higher than the scores of those who began school at the ages 6 years or late. The results also suggest that the returns in terms of literacy scores diminish in relation to the number of years of early childhood education.

On the evolution of TFP in Latin America

Due to several policy distortions, including import-substitution industrialization, widespread government intervention and both domestic and international competitive barriers, there has been a general presumption that Latin America has been much less productive than the leading economies in the last decades. In this paper we show, however, that until the late seventies Latin American countries had high productivity levels relative to the United States. It is only after the late seventies that we observe a fast decrease of relative TFP in Latin America. We also show that the inclusion of human capital in the production function makes a crucial diference in the TFP calculations for Latin America.

Structural Transformation and Productivity in Latin America

We investigate the role of sectorial differences in labor productivity and the process of structural transformation (reallocation of labor across sectors) in accounting for the time path of aggregate productivity across six Latin American countries (Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela) from 1950 to 2003. We used a general equilibrium model with three sectors (agriculture, industry and services) calibrated to those six economies. The model is used to compare the trajectory of productivity in each sector of activity with that of the United States and it impact on aggregate productivity.While in Brazil and Argentina, the Service Sector was responsible for reversing the process of catch up in productivity that occurred until the 1980s, in others, like Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela, low productivity growth of the three sectors explain their poor performance.

On the evolution of TFP in Latin America

Due to several policy distortions, including import-substitution industrialization, widespread government intervention and both domestic and international competitive barriers, there has been a general presumption that Latin America has been much less productive than the leading economies in the last decades. In this paper we show, however, that until the late seventies Latin American countries had high productivity levels relative to the United States. It is only after the late seventies that we observe a fast decrease of relative TFP in Latin America. We also show that the inclusion of human capital in the production function makes a crucial difference in the TFP calculations for Latin America.