The evolution of international output differences (1960-2000): From factors to productivity

This article presents a group of exercises of level and growth decomposition of output per worker using cross-country data from 1960 to 2000. It is shown that at least until 1975 factors of production (capital and education) were the main source of output dispersion across economies and that productivity variance was considerably smaller than in late years. Only after this date the prominence of productivity started to show up in the data, as the majority of the literature has found. The growth decomposition exercises showed that the reversal of relative importance of productivity vis-a-vis factors is explained by the very good (bad) performance of productivity of fast (slow) growing economies. Although growth in the period, on average, is mostly due to factors accumulation, its variance is explained by productivity.

Trade barriers and productivity growth: cross-industry evidence

This article investigates the impact of trade protection on the evolution of labor productivity and total factor productivity (TFP) of the Brazilian manufacturing sector. An annual panel-dataset of 16 industries for the years 1985 through 1997, a period that includes a major trade liberalization, was used. The regressions reported here are robust to openness indicator (nominal tari®s and e®ective protection rate were used), control variables and time period and suggest that barriers to trade negatively a®ects productivity growth at industry level: those sectors with lower barriers experienced higher growth. We were also able to link the observed increase of industry productivity growth after 1991 to the widespread reduction on exective protection experienced in the country in the nineties.

Gains from trade and measured total factor productivity

We develop and calibrate a model where diferences in factor en-dowments lead countries to trade di¤erent goods, so that the existence of international trade changes the sectorial composition of output from one country to another. Gains from trade re ect in total factor productivity. We perform a development decomposition, to assess the impact of trade and barriers to trade on measured TFP. In our sample, the median size of that e¤ect is about 6.5% of output, with a median of 17% and a maximum of 89%. Also, the model predicts that changes in the terms of trade cause a change of productivity, and that efect has an average elasticity of 0.71.

Structural Transformation and Productivity in Latin America

We investigate the role of sectorial differences in labor productivity and the process of structural transformation (reallocation of labor across sectors) in accounting for the time path of aggregate productivity across six Latin American countries (Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela) from 1950 to 2003. We used a general equilibrium model with three sectors (agriculture, industry and services) calibrated to those six economies. The model is used to compare the trajectory of productivity in each sector of activity with that of the United States and it impact on aggregate productivity.While in Brazil and Argentina, the Service Sector was responsible for reversing the process of catch up in productivity that occurred until the 1980s, in others, like Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela, low productivity growth of the three sectors explain their poor performance.

Collateral, Intermediated Lending, and Aggregate Productivity

Neste trabalho busca-se compreender como que restrições a diferentes tipos de crédito - doméstico e internacional - afetam a dinâmica de uma economia, especialmente com relação a sua Produtividade Total dos Fatores (PTF). Para ajudar no entendimento dessa questão e assuntos relacionados, propomos um simples modelo de economia aberta. Nesse contexto, empreendedores domésticos possuem produtividades heterogêneas, o que implica que a distribuição de riqueza entre indivíduos é essencial para a determinação da produtividade agregada da economia. Além disso, o ambiente de comprometimento limitado obriga os tomadores de empréstimo a dispor de colateral para contrair dívidas. Por hipótese, dívida doméstica e externa requerem diferentes quantidades de colateral. O modelo gera uma dinâmica macroeconômica rica após mudanças na taxa de juros internacional e restrições a crédito. Mais especificamente, um alívio na restrição doméstica causa um aumento da PTF, enquanto a mesma variação na restrição internacional tem o efeito contrário.

Structural transformation and productivity in Latin America

This article examines the e¤ects of sectorial shifts and structural transformation on the recent productivity path of Latin America. We use a four-sector (agriculture, industry, modern services and traditional services) general equilibrium model calibrated to the main economies in the region. The model very closely replicates labor reallocations across sectors and the growth of aggregate labor productivity from 1950 to 2005. Structural transformation explains a sizeable portion of the region s convergence in the rst decades. In most cases, the poor performance of the traditional services sector is the main cause of the slowdown in productivity growth observed in the region after the mid-1970s and is a key factor in explaining the divergence during this period.

Distortions in the investment goods sector and productivity decline

We study the impact of distortions in the investment goods sector on aggregate total factor productivity (TFP). We develop a two-sector neo-classical growth model in which TFP in the capital goods sector relative to TFP in the consumption sector is inversely related to the price of investment relative to consumption, so that we use relative prices to measure TFP in the investment goods sector. The model is calibrated to Brazil and we nd that distortions in the investment goods sector may explain most of the decline in Brazilian TFP relative to the United States since the mid-1970s.

Conditional labour supply, quantile functions in Brazil

The estimation of labor supply elasticities has been an important issue m the economic literature. Yet all works have estimated conditional mean labor supply functions only. The objective of this paper is to obtain more information on labor supply, by estimating the conditional quantile labor supply function. vI/e use a sample of prime age urban males employees in Brazil. Two stage estimators are used as the net wage and virtual income are found to be endogenous to the model. Contrary to previous works using conditional mean estimators, it is found that labor supply elasticities vary significantly and asymmetrically across hours of work. vVhile the income and wage elasticities at the standard work week are zero, for those working longer hours the elasticities are negative.

The evolution of international output differences (1960-2000) : from factor to productivity

This article presents a group of exercises of leveI and growth decomposition of output per worker using cross-collntry data from 1960 to :2000. It is shown that at least llntil 197.5 factors of production (capital anel education) ",ere the main source of output dispersion across ecoIlomies and that productivity variance was considerably srnaller than in late years. Qnly after this date the prominence of productivity started to sho\\' up in the data. as the majority of the litcrature has found. The gro\\'th decomposition exercises showecl that t he reversal of relative irnportance of proeluctivity vis-a-\'is factors is explainecl by the very good (bad) performance of procluctivity of fast (slow) growing cconomies. Although growth in the pcriod, on avcragc. is mostly clue to factors accumulation. its variance is explained by productivity.

Can unobserved heterogeneity in farmer ability explain the inverse relationship between farm size and productivity?

The well-known inverse relationship between farm-size and productivity is usually explained in terms of diminishing returns with respect to land and other inputs coupled with various types of market frictions that prevent the efficient allocation of land across farms. We show that even if in the absence of diminishing returns one can provide an alternative explanation for this phenomenon using endogenous occupational choice and heterogeneity with respect to farming skills.

“O sindicato que a ditadura queria”: o Ministério do Trabalho no governo Castelo Branco (1964-1967)

Esse trabalho tenta analisar a atuação do Ministério do Trabalho através da articulação de seus ministros com outras áreas da burocracia estatal, durante o governo Castelo Branco, para, por um lado, reprimir e expurgar opiniões contrárias ao regime ditatorial e, por outro, promover uma nova política para os trabalhadores, o “novo trabalhismo”. O termo condensava a ideia da área econômica de ‘democratizar’ as oportunidades, ampliando as atribuições dos sindicatos, deslocando o seu foco das reivindicações salariais para o desenvolvimento, em associação com o governo, de projetos e programas de investimentos nos setores sociais de produtividade indireta. Para implementar a proposta, cada ministro teve que lidar com as pressões advindas do processo de alteração da política trabalhista e articular os seus interesses pessoais com as atribuições da pasta. Arnaldo Sussekind resistiu às demandas para o fim da estabilidade, alterou a Lei de Greve, permitiu o fracionamento do 13º salário e abriu espaço para a implantação da política salarial. Ao mesmo tempo promoveu uma massiva intervenção nos sindicatos, cujos processos permitem conhecer melhor o interior da burocracia estatal, perceber os argumentos utilizados para afastar as diretorias das entidades e questionar a tomada de decisões dentro do ministério sob o novo contexto social pós-golpe. Walter Peracchi Barcelos utilizou a pasta como trampolim político, propondo e executando ações repressivas que lhe garantiam vantagens políticas e negligenciando projetos da área econômica, como o Fundo de Garantia por Tempo de Serviço, que ameaçavam importantes conquistas dos trabalhadores. Por fim, Luiz Gonzaga do Nascimento e Silva reformulou o Banco Nacional da Habitação e unificou a previdência, ações que permitiram a transferência de atribuições e recursos do Estado para a iniciativa privada. A pesquisa, portanto, sustenta que o Ministério do Trabalho, após o golpe, perdeu poder político dentro do governo por permitir a transferência de suas atribuições para camadas da elite empresarial e para os militares, forçando os sindicatos a modificarem seus canais de diálogo e suas reivindicações para se adaptarem ao novo contexto.

The long term effects of Bolsa Família on child labour and school enrolment

In this paper we study the e ects of conditional cash transfers in school enrolment and tackling child labour. We develop a dynamic heterogeneous agent general equilibrium model, where households face a set of tradeo s while allocating their children's time in leisure activities, schooling and working. We calibrate the model using data from the Brazilian survey PNAD, before the policy was implemented, in order to quantify the e ects of a conditional transfer. We then evaluate the results of a policy experiment that implements a conditional cash transfer scheme similar to the Brazilian Bolsa Fam lia. Our results suggest that the program, in the long term, is able to substantially increase school registration and reduce child labour and poverty. In addition, we nd out that a progressive conditional cash transfer results is even more e ective in tackling child labour and increasing school enrolment.

The long term effects of Bolsa Família on child labour and school enrollment

Neste trabalho, estudamos os impactos de transfer^encias condicionais de renda sobre o trabalho e a educa c~ao infantis. Para tanto, desenvolvemos modelo din^amico de equil brio geral com agentes heterog^eneos, onde as fam lias enfrentam tradeo s com rela c~ao a aloca c~ao de tempo das crian cas em atividades de lazer, em escolaridade e em trabalhar. O modelo e calibrado usando dados da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra em Domic lios, de modo que podemos quanti car os efeitos de uma pol tica de transfer^encia de renda. Finalmente, avaliamos o impacto de um pol tica semelhante ao atual Bolsa Fam lia. Nossos resultados sugerem que o programa, no longo prazo, e capaz de induzir um aumento substancial na escolaridade, al em de ser efetivo na redu c~ao do trabalho infantil e da pobreza. Al em disso, mostramos que um programa progressivo de transfer^encia condicional de renda resulta em benef cios ainda maiores.