Mitigação de exposição a juros e moedas por meio de instrumento de dívidas corporativas no Brasil

Este artigo busca analisar se empresas utilizam instrumentos de dívida corporativa para fazer gestão de risco tanto à exposição à taxa de juros quanto à exposição cambial. Comparamos os coeficientes de regressões para avaliar a exposição a tais fatores de risco antes e depois da emissão da dívida corporativa. Utilizamos uma amostra de emissões de debêntures de empresas brasileiras emitidas no Brasil e de bonds de empresas brasileiras emitidas em dólar. Os dados abrangem o período de janeiro de 2003 a dezembro de 2012. Não encontramos evidência do uso de instrumentos de emissão de dívida corporativa local e internacional como mecanismo de hedge à taxa de juros e à variação da taxa de câmbio. Encontramos evidência de que o derivativo para hedge cambial é utilizado pela maioria das empresas emissoras de bonds. Entretanto, não observamos o mesmo comportamento quando da exposição à taxa de juros para emissoras de dívida corporativa local.

As intervenções do Banco do Central do Brasil no mercado de câmbio e seus efeitos no nível intradiário da taxa de câmbio

Este trabalho tem como objetivo investigar o efeito das intervenções cambiais realizadas pelo Banco Central do Brasil sobre o nível intradiário da taxa de câmbio no Brasil. Para isso é utilizada uma abordagem de estudo de eventos, cruzando as cotações tick-by-tick dos contratos de dólar futuro negociados na BM&FBOVESPA com o instante em que ocorreram as intervenções, no período de outubro de 2011 a março de 2014. Foram considerados nas análises não apenas o momento da intervenção como também o momento do anúncio. Os resultados indicaram que o mercado reage de forma distinta a cada tipo de intervenção, sendo a reação acentuada quando a intervenção não é anunciada previamente ao mercado. As intervenções via swap cambial ou dólar pronto geraram efeitos significativos e relevantes no nível da taxa de câmbio. Por outro lado, as intervenções através de leilão de linha não afetaram significativamente a taxa de câmbio.

Dual resource transfers and interruption in external debt service

Externai debt service requires a dual resource transfer. Trade surpluses have to be generated in order to make foreign exchange revenues available for debt repayment. In addition, with developing countries' externai debt being largely a public liability, debt service requires that resources can be effectively transferred from the private to the public sector. This paper derives a statistical model for dealing with dual constraints in the presence of binary dependent variables and applies it to the dual resource transfer problem. The results from the estimation of the model for a sample of 31 middle-income developing countries in the period of 1980 to 1990, strongly support the hypothesis that both externai and fiscal constraints are important in explaining externai debt service disruptions.

Balance of payment crises and capital flows : the role of liquidity

A model of externaI CrISIS is deveIoped focusing on the interaction between Iiquidity creation by financiaI intermediaries and foreign exchange collapses. The intermediaries' role of transforming maturities is shown to result in larger movements of capital and a higher probability of crisis. This resembles the observed cycle in capital fiows: large infiows, crisis and abrupt outfiows. The mo deI highlights how adverse productivity and international interest rate shocks can be magnified by the behavior of individual foreign investors linked together through their deposits in the intermediaries. An eventual collapse of the exchange rate can link investors' behavior even further. The basic model is then extended, quite naturally, to study the effects of capital fiow contagion between countries.

Buy-or-sell auctions

This paper develops a game theoretic model of a "Buy-or-Sell" auction. Participants have to submit both a bid and an offer price for up to one of the many units of the good being auctioned. The bid-ask spread is set in advance by the auctioneer. Such an auction was used by the Central Bank of Brazil to intervene in the foreign exchange market during the exchange rate crawling-peg regime (1995-1999). I investigate whether such mechanism is more effective than standard intervention auctions to prevent speculative attacks in the context of managed exchange rate regimes.

Política monetária brasileira pré-crise de 2008 : uma análise da possível influência dos juros americanos e de outros fatores externos

Neste trabalho, é feita uma análise da política monetária brasileira no período de 2000 a 2008 com o intuito de entender o quão independente ela foi em relação às ações do Federal Reserve. Esse entendimento é importante devido à iminente movimentação de subida de juros nos EUA, ainda sem data precisa para ocorrer, mas que pode trazer consequências no câmbio e nos juros domésticos em um momento em que já há um aperto monetário em curso no país. Além disso, os efeitos de outras variáveis ligadas a situações externas como eventos de crise, câmbio e risco país nos juros brasileiros também são levados em consideração. Os resultados indicam que, no período de estudo, a política monetária nacional foi marcada por uma maior autonomia em relação às flutuações nos juros americanos, fato que pode ter sido auxiliado pela adoção em 1999 do câmbio flutuante.

Economic stagnation and alternative development strategies

The focus of my paper is the presentation of some thoughts on overcoming economic stagnation, with reference to the case of Mexico. In Section 2, I will describe the reasons why the policies of financial opening based on the Washington Consensus create endogenous tendencies toward economic stagnation and overvaluation of currencies. Section 3 offers a concise outline of a possible alternative development project for Mexico. Section 4 presents some proposals regarding monetary, foreign exchange, and fiscal policy oriented toward reviving economic growth. Finally, in Section 5, I present some conclusions.

Balance of payments dominance: its implications for macroeconomic policy

This paper defines “balance of payments dominance” as a macroeconomic regime in which the short-term macroeconomic dynamics is essentially determined by external shocks, positive or negative. It argues that this is the predominant regime in emerging and developing countries. Trade shocks play an important role but the major procyclical shocks are associated with boom-bust cycles in external financing. Policy challenges are associated not only with the management of such shocks but also with the need to enhance the space for countercyclical macroeconomic policies, as boom-bust cycles tend to pressure macroeconomic policies to behave in a procyclical way. Under these conditions, the best bet is to design policies to reduce external vulnerabilities through a mix of administered exchange rate policies, very active foreign exchange reserve management, reduced reliance on external borrowing, and macroprudential regulations, including those directly affecting capital flows. Countercyclical fiscal policy can also play a role but face strong economic and political economy challenges.

Balance of payments dominance : its implocations for macroeconomic policy

This paper defines “balance of payments dominance” as a macroeconomic regime in which the short-term macroeconomic dynamics is essentially determined by external shocks, positive or negative. It argues that this is the predominant regime in emerging and developing countries. Trade shocks play an important role but the major procyclical shocks are associated with boom-bust cycles in external financing. Policy challenges are associated not only with the management of such shocks but also with the need to enhance the space for countercyclical macroeconomic policies, as boom-bust cycles tend to pressure macroeconomic policies to behave in a procyclical way. Under these conditions, the best bet is to design policies to reduce external vulnerabilities through a mix of administered exchange rate flexibility, very active foreign exchange reserve management, reduced reliance on external borrowing, and macroprudential regulations, including those directly affecting capital flows. Countercyclical fiscal policy can also play a role but face strong economic and political economy challenges.

Neutralizing the tendency to the overvaluation of the exchange rate or assuming a foreign constraint and asking for foreign savings

The objectives of these notes are two. The first objective is to analyze whether the strategy of growth with absorption of foreign savings leads to a trajectory of the economy that is sustainable in the long run. The second one is to evaluate the possibility of success of a policy of administered devaluation of the exchange rate in Brazil.

Debt composition and exchange rate balance sheet effects in Brazil: A firm level analysis

In this paper we study the interaction between macroeconomic environment and firms’ balance sheet effects in Brazil during the 1990’s. We start by assessing the influence of macroeconomic conditions on firms’ debt composition in Brazil. We found that larger firms tend to change debt currency composition more in response to a change in the exchange rate risk than small firms. We then proceed to investigate if and how exchange rate balance sheet effects affected the firms’ investment decisions. We test directly the exchange rate balance sheet effect on investment. Contrary to earlier findings (Bleakley and Cowan, 2002), we found that firms more indebted in foreign currency tend to invest less when there is an exchange rate devaluation. We tried different controls for the competitiveness effect. First, we control directly for the effect of the exchange rate on exports and imported inputs. We then pursue an alternative investigation strategy, inspired by the credit channel literature. According to this perspective, Tobin’s q can provide an adequate control for the competitiveness effect on investment. Our results provide supporting evidence for imperfect capital markets, and for a negative exchange rate balance sheet effect in Brazil. The results concerning the exchange rate balance sheet effect on investment are statistically significant and robust across the different specifications. We tested the results across different periods, classified according to the macroeconomic environment. Our findings suggest that the negative exchange rate balance sheet effect we found in the whole sample is due to the floating exchange rate period. We also found that exchange rate devaluations have important negative impact on both cash flows and sales of indebted firms. Furthermore, the impact of exchange rate variations is asymmetric, and the significant effect detected when no asymmetry is imposed is engendered by exchange rate devaluations.

Economic growth with foreign saving?

Highly indebted countries, particularly the Latin American ones, presented dismal economic outcomes in the 1990s, which are the consequence of the ‘growth cum foreign savings strategy’, or the Second Washington Consensus. Coupled with liberalization of international financial flows, such strategy, which did not make part of the first consensus, led the countries, in the wave of a new world wide capital flow cycle, to high current account deficits and increase in foreign debt, ignoring the solvency constraint and the debt threshold. In practical terms it involved overvalued currencies (low exchange rates) and high interest rates; in policy terms, the attempt to control de budget deficit while the current account deficit was ignored. The paradoxical consequence was the adoption by highly indebted countries of ‘exchange rate populism’, a less obvious but more dangerous form of economic populism.

Why foreign savings fail to cause growth

Este artigo é uma formalização da crítica à estratégia do crescimento com poupança externa que um de seus autores vem sendo fazendo nos últimos anos. Apesar dos países de renda média serem pobres de capital, os déficits em conta corrente (poupança externa), financiado seja por empréstimos ou por investimentos externos diretos, não irá aumentar a taxa de acumulação de capital ou terá pouco impacto sobre ela, uma vez que os déficits de conta corrente estarão associados taxas de câmbio apreciadas, ordenados e salários aumentados artificialmente e altos níveis de consumo. Consequentemente, a taxa de substituição da poupança externa pela interna será relativamente alta, e o país será obrigado não a investir e crescer, mas a consumir. Apenas quando há grandes oportunidades de investimento, estimuladas por uma ampla diferença entre a taxa de lucro esperada e a taxa de juros de longo prazo, a propensão marginal ao consumo diminuirá suficientemente, a ponto de o lucro adicional originário do fluxo de capital estrangeiro ser usado para investimento, ao invés de para consumo. Neste caso especial, a taxa de substituição de poupança externa pela interna tenderá a ser menor e a poupança interna contribuirá positivamente para o crescimento

Exchange rate dynamics in Brazil

The paper aims to investigate on empirical and theoretical grounds the Brazilian exchange rate dynamics under floating exchange rates. The empirical analysis examines the short and long term behavior of the exchange rate, interest rate (domestic and foreign) and country risk using econometric techniques such as variance decomposition, Granger causality, cointegration tests, error correction models, and a GARCH model to estimate the exchange rate volatility. The empirical findings suggest that one can argue in favor of a certain degree of endogeneity of the exchange rate and that flexible rates have not been able to insulate the Brazilian economy in the same patterns predicted by literature due to its own specificities (managed floating with the use of international reserves and domestic interest rates set according to inflation target) and to externally determined variables such as the country risk. Another important outcome is the lack of a closer association of domestic and foreign interest rates since the new exchange regime has been adopted. That is, from January 1999 to May 2004, the US monetary policy has no significant impact on the Brazilian exchange rate dynamics, which has been essentially endogenous primarily when we consider the fiscal dominance expressed by the probability of default.

Temporal causality between the exchange rate and the trade balance : the case of Brazil

The paper assesses the impact of intemational relative prices and domestic expenditure variables on Brazil' s foreign trade performance in the first half of the 1990s. It has been argued that the appreciation of the Real since 1994 has had a detrimental impact of the country's trade balance. However, using temporal precedence analysis, our results do not indicate that the trade balance is strongly affected by intemational rei ative prices, such as the exchange rate. Instead, domestic expenditure variables appear to be more powerful determinant of the country' s trade performance in recent years. Granger and error correction causality techniques are used to determine temporal precedence between the trade balance and the exchange rate in the period under examination. Our findings shed light on the debate over the sustainability of recent exchange rate-anchored macroeconomic stabilisation programmes, which is a topic that has encouraged a lot of debate among academics and practitioners.