Um sistema de metas como ferramenta de gestão pública: "O Programa de Metas da Cidade de São Paulo 2013-2016" sob a perspectiva de seus implementadores

This work, developed within the Master's Degree Program in Public Administration and Government of Eaesp-FGV, consists of an exploratory study on performance measurement in the public sector. It is focused on the identification of complexity elements embedded in the implementation of public policies, to which the goals and targets of a target-oriented system relate, and especially on the implementation of this system as a management tool itself, from the case study of the then ongoing "Programa de Metas da Cidade de São Paulo 2013-2016". All information was obtained from municipal managers, in Government Departments responsible for strategic support activities to the implementation of the system, and sectoral Government Departments whose scope also included crosscutting actions, through interviews conducted from a starting question, and then followed by the free talk of the respondents. Through discourse analysis, an assortment of information was conducted, concerning to: 1) the impacts on management, articulation, and governance of the use of performance measurement and result-oriented management; 2) the flow and publicity of information on performance, produced within the monitoring process of this given target-oriented system, and also concerning the use given to this information; 3) the recording and register of experiences and learning related to the Programa de Metas, and its potential to result as a legacy for the public administrative structure of the City of São Paulo. Assuming that the stories managers tell, in this field of Applied Social Sciences, are as valid as Science or the theoretical constructs on the subject, all information gathered from the point of view of the interviewed public officials was segmented and problematized under the light of the literature on performance measurement. The main objective of this research is to contribute to the creation of parameters for qualitative analysis of the information generated in the implementation of a target-oriented system in Public Management at the local level. It is, from then on, expected that these parameters may help managers and researchers on the monitoring and evaluation of performance of a given government, by favoring the translation of merely arithmetic data on percentage of fulfillment of specific commitments, into eloquent elements more enabled to express the evolution of a mandate. Keywords: result-oriented system, Programa de Metas, management for results, performance measurement, government planning, public policy evaluation, monitoring, implementation, transparency, information legacy.

Quando o passado se faz presente: os desafios da gestão social no programa nacional de agricultura familiar

A evolução de políticas públicas na esfera rural, anteriormente desenvolvida pelo Ministério da Agricultura, passando para o Ministério do Desenvolvimento Agrário e ganhando prioridade na agenda do governo a partir do mandato do ex-presidente Luis Inácio Lula da Silva ao incorporar no Ministério da Casa Civil a política pública dos Territórios da Cidadania, demonstra o retorno da importância da esfera rural brasileira e de sua população para o desenvolvimento real do país. Tendo a certeza de que a política pública hoje, gerida pelo Ministério da Casa Civil, apresenta um histórico evolutivo e que desde o final da década de 90 já priorizava como ação estratégica a gestão social como pressuposto para uma atuação do Estado pautado por ações e critérios republicanos, foi realizado um levantamento de algumas explicações que apontam a mudança da ação estatal para uma gestão que incorpora a população como um agente importante para o alcance das metas preestabelecidas pelo Estado. Sabendo da real importância do aspecto histórico para a evolução das políticas públicas, este estudo resgatou o Programa Nacional de Fortalecimento Familiar (PRONAF) como objeto de investigação, já que tal política apresenta-se como um grande marco para o desenvolvimento da gestão social nas políticas públicas territoriais. Foi realizada então uma análise de conteúdo de (4) relatórios institucionais que cobrem (4) estados e mais ou menos 100 municípios para evidenciar se as mudanças preconizadas pela atuação do conceito da gestão social estão efetivamente mudando a cultura política do país. O foco para verificação da presente questão ocorre a partir da análise dos Conselhos Municipais de Desenvolvimento Rural (CMDR). As constatações feitas a partir dos relatórios e interpretadas através das categorias trabalhadas no presente estudo demonstram que a realidade social brasileira ainda apresenta fragilidades advindas da formação social do país, apresentando-se como verdadeiros obstáculos para a efetivação do interesse coletivo e para a consolidação de um Estado brasileiro efetivamente republicano

A green revolution in Mozambique: a study about the government possibilities to launch a sustainable green revolution

The present study is focused on the analysis of the political, economical and social factors that may interfere with the possibility of a Green Revolution as a solution for Mozambique to reach self-sufficiency and to reduce poverty. In order to perform such analysis, the study analyzes the consequences of the decolonization process in Mozambique focusing that the independence process in Mozambique did not create non-colonial models for the Agriculture Sector. Later on, the study tries to understand the impact of HIV/AIDS and Malaria on the labor force. By then, it explores the concepts of the Green Revolution and its successful history in India. At the end, it tries to evaluate if a Green Revolution is possible in Africa, especially in Mozambique, first identifying the factors, which characterized the Green Revolution in India, and trying to link those factors with the reality of Mozambique. The report is structured as followed; Chapter 2, ¿The decolonization process and its impacts on the agriculture sector¿. It gives information about the decolonization process, and explores its consequences. Chapter 3, ¿The Impacts of HIV/AIDS and Malaria on the Labor Force¿. It analyzes the impact of those diseases in the labor force. Chapter 4 ¿The Green Revolution and the Agriculture Sector¿, explores the concepts of Green Revolution, its success in India and its history in Mozambique. Chapter 5, finally, centers on conclusions, findings and recommendations.

Government policy and private investment in Brazil (1955/82)

The questlon of the crowding-out of private !nvestment by public expenditure, public investment in particular , ln the Brazilian economy has been discussed more in ideological terrns than on empirical grounds. The present paper tries to avoid the limitation of previous studies by estlmatlng an equation for private investment whlch makes it possible to evaluate the effect of economic policies on prlvate investment. The private lnvestment equation was deduced modifylng the optimal flexible accelerator medel (OFAM) incorporating some channels through which public expendlture influences privateinvestment. The OFAM consists in adding adjustment costs to the neoclassical theory of investrnent. The investment fuction deduced is quite general and has the following explanatory variables: relative prices (user cost of capitaljimput prices ratios), real interest rates, real product, public expenditures and lagged private stock of capital. The model was estimated for private manufacturing industry data. The procedure adopted in estimating the model was to begin with a model as general as possible and apply restrictions to the model ' s parameters and test their statistical significance. A complete diagnostic testing was also made in order to test the stability of estirnated equations. This procedure avoids ' the shortcomings of estimating a model with a apriori restrictions on its parameters , which may lead to model misspecification. The main findings of the present study were: the increase in public expenditure, at least in the long run, has in general a positive expectation effect on private investment greater than its crowding-out effect on priva te investment owing to the simultaneous rise in interst rates; a change in economlc policy, such as that one of Geisel administration, may have an important effect on private lnvestment; and reI ative prices are relevant in determining the leveI of desired stock of capital and private investrnent.

Campaign donation and government contracts in Brazilian states

A corporate firm may influence policies in its favor by transferring money to political candidates. However, empirical studies which document evidence about the return on campaign donations are rare (Großer, Reuben and Tymula, 2013). In this paper we estimate the net expected return of a campaign donation in eight Brazilian states using a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to separate the return of winning and losing state deputy candidates in the electoral coalition in 2006. Our results show that that the net return is quite high (i.e., the investment of donor firms is almost 2% of the net expected return), and is larger among traditional electoral parties than any other parties, on average. Looking at the heterogeneity of local executive and legislative levels, we find that net returns are higher when donor firms finance deputies within a governor’s electoral coalition than deputies outside this coalition.

Intergovernmental transfers and public spending in Brazilian municipalities

We estimate the effects of unconditional (full fiscal decentralization) versus conditional (partial fiscal decentralization) block grants on local public spending in Brazilian municipalities. Our results suggest that the effect of unconditional and conditional transfers do not differ statistically. Their combination promotes a full crowding-in effect on aggregate public spending — i.e., for $1 of unconditional and conditional grant receipts; we find $1 of additional local public expenditures, greater than the corresponding effect of local income, providing further evidence for the flypaper effect. Moreover, the effect of unconditional transfers on education (health) spending is smaller than the effect of conditional education (health) transfers but greater than the corresponding effect of local income. We consider four strategies to identify causal effects of federal grants and the local income on fiscal responses regarding Brazilian local governments: (i) a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, (ii) Redistributive rules of education funds, (iii) Oil and Gas production, and (iv) Rainfall deviations from the historical mean.

Cyclicality of SME Lending and Government Involvement in Banks

Recent regulatory efforts aim at lowering the cyclicality of bank lending because of its potential detrimental effects on financial stability and the real economy. We investigate the cyclicality of SME lending by local banks with vs. without a public mandate, controlling for location, size, loan maturity, funding structure, liquidity, profitability, and credit demand-side factors. The public mandate is set by local governments and stipulates a deviation from strict profit maximization and a sustainable provision of financial services to local customers. We find that banks with a public mandate are 25 percent less cyclical than other local banks. The result is credit supply-side driven and especially strong for savings banks with high liquidity and stable deposit funding. Our findings have implications for the banking structure, financial stability and the finance-growth nexus in a local context.

Cyclicality of SME lending and government involvement in banks

Recent regulatory efforts aim at lowering the cyclicality of bank lending because of its potential detrimental effects on financial stability and the real economy. We investigate the cyclicality of SME lending by local banks with vs. without a public mandate, controlling for location, size, loan maturity, funding structure, liquidity, profitability, and credit demand-side factors. The public mandate is set by local governments and stipulates a deviation from strict profit maximization and a sustainable provision of financial services to local customers. We find that banks with a public mandate are 25 percent less cyclical than other local banks. The result is credit supply-side driven and especially strong for savings banks with high liquidity and stable deposit funding. Our findings have implications for the banking structure, financial stability and the finance-growth nexus in a local context.