Stock Markets and Household Wealth: Can a Stock Market Crash Cause a Recession in The U.S. Economy?

Stock market wealth effects on the level of consumption in the United States economy have been constantly debated; there is evidence for arguments for and against its prominence and its symmetry. This paper seeks to investigate the strength of its negative effect by creating models to analyze unexpected shocks to the Standard and Poor's 500 index. First, a transmission mechanism between the stock market and GDP is established through the use of second-order vector autoregressive models. Following which, theory from the life cycle model and adaptations of previous researchers' models are used to create a structural model. This paper finds that stock market wealth effects are small, but important to consider, especially if markets are overpriced; this claim is corroborated by evidence from simulation of 'alternative scenarios' and the historical experiences of 1987 and 2001.

A Pollen Chase Experiment; Examining Varying Levels of Embryonic Inbreeding Depression

A pollen chase experiment was performed upon three Costa Rican populations of Witheringia solanacea to examine the breakdown of genetically enforced self incompatibility (SI) and the extent of embryonic inbreeding depression. Self-pollen was applied in the bud, with outcross pollen applied one day later, and outcross pollinations at both intervals as a control. A variety of responses were found among the populations. BOHS readily accepted self pollen and suffered from very low inbreeding depression. Monteverde and Las Cruces both have lower fruit set with self-pollination precedence indicating that bud pollinations can overcome the self-incompatibility response and that embryonic death due to inbreeding depression causes fruit failure. The treatment:control fruit set is higher for the Las Cruces plants indicating stronger SI response Self-precedence seeds from the Las Cruces plants are likely to be outcrossed. Self-precedence seeds from Monteverde are likely selfed.