Candidate Quality and Voter Response in U.S. House Elections

We propose and test the implications of a two-dimensional concept of candidate quality in U.S. House elections. Strategic quality is composed of the skills and resources necessary to wage an effective campaign; personal quality is composed of the characteristics most ordinary citizens value in their leaders and representatives, such as personal integrity and dedication to public service. We employ district informants in studies of the 1998 and 2002 congressional elections to measure these qualities in candidates, and we merge mass survey data with the district informant indicators to assess constituents’ awareness and evaluation of House candidates, and voting choice. We find that awareness tends to be responsive to candidates’ strategic quality, and that incumbent evaluation is remarkably responsive to variation in personal quality, even taking into account the quality of challenger emergence. These and other findings appear to support a more positive view of citizen capacity than is common in the congressional elections literature, especially in light of the electoral security of House incumbents.

Incumbency Reconsidered: Prospects, Strategic Entry, and Incumbent Quality in U.S. House Elections

Efforts to estimate the magnitude of the incumbency effect in U.S. House elections and assess its political meaning have been complicated by two omitted-variables problems. First, in the absence of an adequate measure of incumbent prospects, estimates of the magnitude of the incumbency effect fail to control for selection effects associated with the decision incumbents make about whether to run for reelection. Strategic incumbents enter races they think they can win and withdraw when they expect to lose. The consequence is an upward bias in estimates of incumbents’ electoral advantages. Second, the normative implications of high reelection rates cannot be assessed without measuring incumbent quality, since a possible explanation for their electoral success is that incumbents are of high quality and doing a good job. We propose a strategy for measuring incumbent prospects and quality, demonstrate the strategic nature of incumbent and challenger entry, re-estimate the incumbency effect, and show that incumbent quality has an impact on electoral outcomes. Our conclusion is that incumbents’ advantages in House elections have been over estimated while the positive basis of incumbent safety is typically under appreciated.

Paleoenvironmental analysis of a late-holocene subfossil Coleopteran fauna from Starks, Maine

The Sandy River in central Maine Is flanked along much of its length by low terraces. Approximately 100 kg of sediment from one terrace in Starks, Somerset County, Maine was wet-sieved in the field. Over 1100 subfossil Coleoptera were recovered representing 53 individual species of a total of 99 taxa. Wood associated with the fauna is 2000 +/-80 14C Yr in age (1-16,038). The fauna is dominated by species characteristic of habitats apparent in modern central Maine. The subfossil assemblage is indicative of a wide vartety of environments including open ground (e.g., Harpalus pensylvanicus), dense forest (e.g., pterostichus honestus), aquatic environments (e.g., Gyrinus, Helophorus), riparian environments with sand and gravel substrates (e.g., Bembidion inaequale, Schizogenius lineolatus), and moist, organic-rich terrestrial environments (e.g., Micropeplus sculptus). The ecological requirements for each taxon permit an environmental reconstruction suggesting an area vegetationally, climatically, and ecologically similar to that of the Sandy River today. The lowest terraces apparently represent the modern-day floodplain of the Sandy River. An average sedimentation rate of l.00 to 1.04 mm per year has been inferred based on radiocarbon dates here and elsewhere on the Sandy River. The Coleopteran fauna suggests that sand and gravel were distinctly abundant, and that the aggradation of point bars, as seen today, contributed to the flood history. Lateral bank erosion of the modern Sandy River accelerated after the State of Maine mandated cessation of bar removal in 1975: flood severity has dramatically increased since that time. Implications suggest that mining of the bars may be necessary to minimize future flooding problems.