Decomposing Consumer Wealth Effects: Evidence on the Role of Real Estate Assets Following the Wealth Cycle of 1990-2002

During the period of 1990-2002 US households experienced a dramatic wealth cycle, induced by a 369% appreciation in the value of real per capita liquid stock market assets followed by a 55% decline. However, consumer spending in real terms continued to rise throughout this period. Using data from 1990-2005, traditional life-cycle approaches to estimating macroeconomic wealth effects confront two puzzles: (i) econometric evidence of a stable cointegrating relationship among consumption, income, and wealth is weak at best; and (ii) life-cycle models that rely on aggregate measures of wealth cannot explain why consumption did not collapse when the value of stock market assets declined so dramatically. We address both puzzles by decomposing wealth according to the liquidity of household assets. We find that the significant appreciation in the value of real estate assets that occurred after the peak of the wealth cycle helped sustain consumer spending from 2001 to 2005.

Stock Markets and Household Wealth: Can a Stock Market Crash Cause a Recession in The U.S. Economy?

Stock market wealth effects on the level of consumption in the United States economy have been constantly debated; there is evidence for arguments for and against its prominence and its symmetry. This paper seeks to investigate the strength of its negative effect by creating models to analyze unexpected shocks to the Standard and Poor's 500 index. First, a transmission mechanism between the stock market and GDP is established through the use of second-order vector autoregressive models. Following which, theory from the life cycle model and adaptations of previous researchers' models are used to create a structural model. This paper finds that stock market wealth effects are small, but important to consider, especially if markets are overpriced; this claim is corroborated by evidence from simulation of 'alternative scenarios' and the historical experiences of 1987 and 2001.

AFFORDABLE HOUSING IN KENNEBEC COUNTY

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Affordable Housing in Kennebec County

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development defines affordable housing as a household paying no more than 30 percent of its annual income on housing. That is, families who pay more than 30 percent of their income on housing are considered cost burdened and may have difficulty affording necessities such as food, clothing, healthcare, and transportation. This project focused on Kennebec County, Maine. Between 1990 and 2000, market demand for housing increased at a faster rate than did the supply of housing. Despite the addition of 6,719 homes, the average home price increased faster than average household income. This raises the question of just how many households in Kennebec County are facing unaffordable housing. Using shapefiles and data provided by the US Census Bureau, a map was created with ArcGIS to illustrate the percentage of households, down to the Census Block level of detail, that are paying more than 30 percent of their income to housing. By looking at this information I was able to get a better picture of the housing situation and where in the county households are having the hardest time meeting their needs. The results indicate that households in the more urbanized sections of the county are more likely than rurally located households to be facing unaffordable housing. Namely, Waterville and Augusta held the highest percentage of households paying more than 30 percent of their income for housing.