Stock Markets and Household Wealth: Can a Stock Market Crash Cause a Recession in The U.S. Economy?

Stock market wealth effects on the level of consumption in the United States economy have been constantly debated; there is evidence for arguments for and against its prominence and its symmetry. This paper seeks to investigate the strength of its negative effect by creating models to analyze unexpected shocks to the Standard and Poor's 500 index. First, a transmission mechanism between the stock market and GDP is established through the use of second-order vector autoregressive models. Following which, theory from the life cycle model and adaptations of previous researchers' models are used to create a structural model. This paper finds that stock market wealth effects are small, but important to consider, especially if markets are overpriced; this claim is corroborated by evidence from simulation of 'alternative scenarios' and the historical experiences of 1987 and 2001.

Theological Voices. PAC Politics and the Abortion Debate: Abortion Politics and the Reagan Era

This investigation shall focus upon the issue of legalized abortion. I believe the complex controversy surrounding the issue of abortion, demonstrates more clearly than any other single contemporary issue the social, political, moral and religious forces working for change in a post-Reagan America. I shall examine in depth the theology, writings, strategies and activities of those Americans who seek to express themselves and their beliefs in religious, or religiously supported interest groups. The current debate surrounding abortion legislation lends itself to several forms of analysis: religious, political, sociological, etc. I will write from the perspective of a student of religion. I shall focus more upon the religious, moral and theological conviction-s of the abortion activists than upon their constitutional right to free speech or assembly. I shall give more attention to denominational structures and church/state relations than to the structuring of representative districts and democratic theory.