A scenario-driven decision support system for serious crime investigation

Consideration of a wide range of plausible crime scenarios during any crime investigation is important to seek convincing evidence and hence to minimize the likelihood of miscarriages of justice. It is equally important for crime investigators to be able to employ effective and efficient evidence-collection strategies that are likely to produce the most conclusive information under limited available resources. An intelligent decision support system that can assist human investigators by automatically constructing plausible scenarios, and reasoning with the likely best investigating actions will clearly be very helpful in addressing these challenging problems. This paper presents a system for creating scenario spaces from given evidence, based on an integrated application of techniques for compositional modelling and Bayesian network-based evidence evaluation. Methods of analysis are also provided by the use of entropy to exploit the synthesized scenario spaces in order to prioritize investigating actions and hypotheses. These theoretical developments are illustrated by realistic examples of serious crime investigation.

Implementing Policy Management through BDI

The requirement for Grid middleware to be largely transparent to individual users and at the same time act in accordance with their personal needs is a difficult challenge. In e-science scenarios, users cannot be repeatedly interrogated for each operational decision made when enacting experiments on the Grid. It is thus important to specify and enforce policies that enable the environment to be configured to take user preferences into account automatically. In particular, we need to consider the context in which these policies are applied, because decisions are based not only on the rules of the policy but also on the current state of the system. Consideration of context is explicitly addressed, in the agent perspective, when deciding how to balance the achievement of goals and reaction to the environment. One commonly-applied abstraction that balances reaction to multiple events with context-based reasoning in the way suggested by our requirements is the belief-desire-intention (BDI) architecture, which has proven successful in many applications. In this paper, we argue that BDI is an appropriate model for policy enforcement, and describe the application of BDI to policy enforcement in personalising Grid service discovery. We show how this has been implemented in the myGrid registry to provide bioinformaticians with control over the services returned to them by the service discovery process.

Knowledge based crime scenario modelling

A crucial concern in the evaluation of evidence related to a major crime is the formulation of sufficient alternative plausible scenarios that can explain the available evidence. However, software aimed at assisting human crime investigators by automatically constructing crime scenarios from evidence is difficult to develop because of the almost infinite variation of plausible crime scenarios. This paper introduces a novel knowledge driven methodology for crime scenario construction and it presents a decision support system based on it. The approach works by storing the component events of the scenarios instead of entire scenarios and by providing an algorithm that can instantiate and compose these component events into useful scenarios. The scenario composition approach is highly adaptable to unanticipated cases because it allows component events to match the case under investigation in many different ways. Given a description of the available evidence, it generates a network of plausible scenarios that can then be analysed to devise effective evidence collection strategies. The applicability of the ideas presented here are demonstrated by means of a realistic example and prototype decision support software.